Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:27 PM Moonrise 3:09 AM   Moonset 2:43 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 946 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight - Light and variable winds. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Patchy dense fog. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 946 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface high pressure continues to build into the marine area from the east. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 040126 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 926 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 913 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Main updates were to refine rain chances through the overnight hours and into early parts of Saturday morning. Upper level shortwave pivots through in the overnight hours and with upstream activity still continuing and some weak low-level convergence this evening along a frontal boundary, I have upped rain chances slightly for the overnight hours. Much of the activity the next few hours will be across southeast AL as the shortwave pivots through, with lighter showers elsewhere. This activity slides east overnight and then more activity develops closer to daybreak across the I-75 corridor and into the eastern Big Bend as the upper level forcing and weak frontal boundary help spur new development.

NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a storm system attendant to its shortwave trough traversing eastward across the Lower MS Valley with a downstream ridge axis bisecting the Coastal Carolinas down to the FL Peninsula. These features are making for warm/moist conditions with a mix of cloudiness, and isolated showers & thunderstorms today. The latter is seabreeze driven, initially focused mostly along the Eastern FL Big Bend before drifting towards the I-75 corridor into the early evening hrs. Additional cell development is possible from remnant outflow boundaries during that time.

Lingering showers are possible tonight from the west as the aforementioned shortwave pivots NE through the Wiregrass. A muggy airmass will make for an unseasonably warm overnight/early-morning period with widespread forecast lows in the upper 60s, or about 10- 12 degrees above normal! Patchy fog is also forecast to develop in the pre-dawn hrs from Southern AL/Emerald Coast, then spreading to the FL Big Bend into parts of South-Central GA. Dissipation should occur within a couple hrs after sunrise.

For tomorrow, expect greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms thanks to some upper-level support provided by the lifting shortwave, afternoon seabreeze, and sufficient daytime instability amidst a moist airmass. These parameters should support deep convection capable of strong/gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. The latter could produce localized high rain amounts exceeding 1 inch. Minimal vertical wind shear precludes severe weather concerns, but several strong storms (perhaps isolated "pulse" severe) are likely. The best chances are along the interstate corridors, followed by a northward drift past the FL state line. Aside from storm activity, temperatures peak in the mid/upper 80s.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Another shortwave will move across the mid-South Sunday into Sunday evening, which will bring another enhancement to our chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon. The highest rain chances will be across southwest GA and the eastern FL Big Bend.
Some mid-level dry air as well as inverted-V profiles on forecast soundings may lead to some gusty wind potential Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, it will continue to be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

One more shortwave traverses the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon, which provides another boost to our rain chances.
However, forecast soundings don't appear as conducive for gusty winds given less mid-level dry air and more moisture near the surface. Highs Monday will be in the upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Beyond Monday, strong ridging takes hold of the area, shutting off the rain and bringing increasing heat through the middle to latter part of the week. Ensemble guidance indicates that we may see 500 mb heights near 589-590 dam, which is close to record heights for this time of year based on SPC's sounding climatology.
Similarly, 850 mb temperatures will be in the 18-22C range, which is also near record levels for this time of year. All that to say, it's going to be hot. Highs will climb in to the lower to middle 90s, and with dew points near 70, heat index values could approach 100 in some areas. Lows will also climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 833 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Isold TSRA/SHRA will continue through the next few hours, in addition to light SHRA associated with an upstream shortwave trough. Have continued VCTS mention through 02Z At ABY and will metwatch for VLD if a mention is needed. Overnight, patchy fog will develop from TLH to ECP from 07-13Z. Have conditions down into LIFR at both locations for both vsbys and cigs. Later Saturday, good coverage of SHRA/VCTS expected from TLH and ABY east to VLD. For now have PROB30 mention after 20Z.

MARINE
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 3 feet into the weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Afternoon and early evening thunderstorms capable of gusty/erratic winds and lightning will be the main fire concerns the next 3 days.
For tomorrow, convection aims to focus along the interstate corridors after seabreeze initiation on the Big Bend side, then drifting north past the FL state line. Convective potential is expected to be greater compared to today. Wetting rains are also possible. Additional rounds of diurnal showers/thunderstorms are forecast Sunday-Monday, albeit lesser coverage, but targeting roughly the same locations as Saturday. Otherwise, look for hot daytime conditions with highs in the upper 80s away from the immediate coast, southerly winds, and a daily afternoon seabreeze.
High dispersions are forecast over parts of SE AL/FL Panhandle Monday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Abundant moisture will be in place with a decent coverage of showers and storms this weekend. While widespread totals of 0.5 to 1 inch, localized totals if storms are slow moving could reach 2 to 3 inches in a short period of time. This could result in some nuisance flooding of poor drainage or urban areas. Otherwise, no additional flood concerns are expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 69 86 67 88 / 20 70 10 40 Panama City 69 83 67 85 / 10 20 0 10 Dothan 68 89 65 88 / 20 40 10 40 Albany 69 87 67 88 / 40 70 30 50 Valdosta 68 86 67 88 / 40 70 30 60 Cross City 66 87 66 88 / 10 50 20 50 Apalachicola 69 80 69 82 / 10 20 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Fri -- 03:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:14 AM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:50 PM CDT     0.40 feet High Tide
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

West Bay Creek
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Fri -- 06:17 AM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:35 PM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
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West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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