Tuesday, June15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Freeport, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:51PM Monday June 14, 2021 11:15 PM CDT (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:15AMMoonset 11:27PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ636 Expires:202106151445;;283311 Fzus54 Kmob 150234 Aaa Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast...updated National Weather Service Mobile Al 934 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 14 2021 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz635-636-151445- Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 934 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 14 2021
Rest of tonight..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 934 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 14 2021
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow will prevail over the marine area through midweek. Northerly winds will then take hold Wednesday night, with a quick shift to southerly Thursday afternoon in response to the passage of a cold front. Onshore flow will then persist, but increase (along with building seas) from late week through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeport, FL
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location: 30.43, -86.2     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 150119 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 919 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

UPDATE.

We saw much less convection today due to drier air in the mid levels. The 00z KTAE sounding showed a PWAT of 1.30". Most convection that formed along the sea breeze front diminished rather quickly. A few storms that dropped down into our GA and AL zones were briefly strong with sub-severe winds. Some convection remains over those zones but should diminish later this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION [739 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday].

This evening's shower and thunderstorm activity will focus in two areas - pinned closer to the Western FL Panhandle coast into the greater Big Bend area due to northerly low-level flow, and moving southward into portions of GA and Southeast AL this evening. The greatest coverage will focus in the far Southeast FL Big Bend w/ PoPs of 60-70 pct, quickly tapering off to 20-30 pct elsewhere in the Western FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Further north, PoPs will be confined mainly to the northern half of the AL/GA counties, with the highest values of 40-50 pct from northern Coffee County east to northern Worth County. Given the inverted-v/caret sounding profiles with Downdraft CAPE around 1k J/Kg, gusty winds to 40 mph will be the main concern with more robust, descending cores.

On Tuesday, a mid-level shortwave in the northwest flow aloft will induce a southward moving surface trough over the area. Initially, this regime will favor sea-breeze showers and thunderstorms being aligned similar to Monday (close to the Western FL Panhandle coast into the greater Big Bend area). But additional activity should develop north of I-10 into portions of Southeast AL and GA, then move southward. Sounding profiles indicate greater dry air aloft, so coverage may be limited, depending on how efficiently moisture is pooled. Of concern is that the environment is more favorable for downbursts compared to Monday, in addition to mid-level winds being above climatology. Some storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds the primary threat, and perhaps small hail.

Temperatures tonight and Tuesday will be near seasonal levels.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Thursday Night].

A dry couple of days through mid week are expected as an upper level trough remains quasi-stationary across the Mid-Atlantic states through Thursday. Overall A trailing frontal boundary from the previous upper level cut-off low that is still currently over our region is expected to be draped across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the week. This has created a rather diffluent pattern aloft across the coastal regions. This will lead to the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Big Bend. This upper level diffluence coupled with a very prominent PW boundary will lead to a sharp cut-off in storm activity for both Wednesday and Thursday. PW values will be less than an inch across the Florida/Georgia border and points north and west. A tight gradient of PW will be evident just south of the previously discussed area, with values climbing to near 1.5 inches in the extreme southeast Big Bend. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s for both Wednesday and Thursday, and lows will drop into the low 70s both evenings.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday].

A slightly more convoluted pattern is expected in the long term, with the potential for some periphery impacts from the current tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. At this time, as of the 2pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the system has a high chance (70%) of developing in the next 5 days. This system regardless of formation is expected to advect copious amounts of moisture into the northern Gulf coast states, with the potential for PW values to exceed 2 inches across the region. This will likely lead to the potential for a wet weekend across the region, depending on the approach of the expected disturbance. Along with heavy rainfall, elevated seas/surf, as well as a high rip current risk can be expected at all area beaches and marine zones starting late this week. It's still too early to discuss track and impacts in depth; however, with the system expected to move northward, and copious amounts of moisture to be advected northward into our region, the potential for heavy rainfall is something that should be closely monitored in the coming days. Overall high temperatures in the extended will drop slightly to the low 90s to upper 80s as moisture moves into the region. Low temperatures; however, will likely remain in the low 70s for much of the region.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Wednesday]

Only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted around the region today due to a much drier layer of air aloft. We expect an increase in convection Tuesday afternoon, especially at or near ECP, TLH and VLD as a front drops down from the north. Thus, went with tempo groups generally in the 18-22z time frame for those terminals. Went with Prob30 groups for DHN and ABY. Some of the storms Tuesday afternoon/evening may become strong to severe.

MARINE.

The main marine concern through much of the work week will be thunderstorms, where locally strong wind gusts and seas will be possible in their vicinity. Beyond Thursday, offshore waters may start to feel the peripheral affects of a tropical disturbance that is currently in the Bay of Campeche. This system will likely lead to long-period swells, advisory/cautionary wave heights, and increased thunderstorm chances from the southwest as soon as late Thursday and early Friday. Poor boating conditions are likely to stay in place through the entire weekend.

FIRE WEATHER.

High dispersions are likely Tuesday afternoon mainly north of I-10, and are possible again on Wednesday afternoon, due to a combination of elevated westerly transport winds and mixing heights. Thunderstorms on Tuesday will be capable of strong outflow winds as well. There are no other fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day this week, but chances appear greatest in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Wednesday. Pockets of heavy rain are possible with some storms. Extreme southeast Dixie County is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. The weekend looks even wetter as we continue to monitor the progress of a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. A surge in moisture from this system may threaten larger portions of our area with heavy rain this weekend, but it is too soon to determine specifics.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 72 94 73 92 70 / 10 40 20 20 10 Panama City 77 90 76 89 74 / 20 30 20 20 10 Dothan 73 95 71 91 68 / 20 30 20 10 10 Albany 74 98 71 93 68 / 20 20 20 10 10 Valdosta 72 94 71 92 68 / 10 40 30 20 10 Cross City 73 91 73 89 71 / 30 50 30 30 20 Apalachicola 76 89 76 87 74 / 20 30 30 20 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . Barry NEAR TERM . LF SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . Barry MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . LF HYDROLOGY . IG3


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 23 mi57 min W 8 G 8.9 81°F 79°F1014 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 34 mi57 min WSW 8 G 9.9 85°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 54 mi57 min Calm G 4.1 83°F 86°F1013.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 76 mi45 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 83°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL14 mi22 minVar 510.00 miFair83°F73°F72%1013.1 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL18 mi19 minW 410.00 miFair80°F74°F81%1013.4 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL22 mi22 minSSW 710.00 miFair80°F76°F87%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTS

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmNW5N3N3N4N3N3N53Calm33SW86SW105SW746W54W45
1 day agoSW5SW4SW8534NW5NW7NW5NW7N7N5455SW734--Calm3S7
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2 days agoSW8554W5356344NW5SW8
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355----3--NE93CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
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Tue -- 02:23 AM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:52 PM CDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.60.70.70.70.60.60.50.40.30.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:25 AM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:37 PM CDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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