Saturday, January23, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:16PM Saturday January 23, 2021 11:11 AM CST (17:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 931 Am Cst Sat Jan 23 2021
Rest of today..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 931 Am Cst Sat Jan 23 2021
Synopsis..A light to moderate easterly flow will prevail through much of the weekend. Moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow is then expected Sunday night through Monday night ahead of the next system. After the passage of a cold front on Tuesday, light to moderate northerly flow will take hold in its wake. With the approach of yet another system, southerly flow will then return by midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 231203 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 603 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . LIFR to IFR ceilings are being reported along and southwest of a line from Hattiesburg MS to Pensacola Naval Air Station FL, with VFR conditions to the northeast. These VFR conditions are expected to encroach slightly further toward the southwest, reaching the Mobile metro area by late afternoon but only briefly. There is also the potential for a few showers right along the coast today. Cloud cover will then return by this evening, along with lowering CIGs to MVFR. Although, VFR CIGs could persist over portions of south-central AL through tonight. Northeast winds tonight will become more easterly by mid-morning and range between 5-10 knots through this afternoon. East winds around 5 knots or less will then take hold this evening over the inland areas, with winds between 5-10 knots at the immediate coast. /22

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 507 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/ . Zonal flow will continue aloft over the northern Gulf coast. This will be followed by weak upper ridging beginning this afternoon that will persist through Sunday. At the surface, a stalled boundary persists just offshore. This feature will slowly make its way southward over the Gulf of Mexico through today. By Sunday morning, a low pressure system will develop over Oklahoma. Its associated warm front will progress northward over the ArkLaTex region, southwestern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday afternoon.

This aforementioned upper and surface patterns will result in decreasing chances of rain. This can be seen by current radar trends, with much of the shower activity near the coast and over the open Gulf waters. By late this afternoon, PWATs area-wide will generally be around an inch or less. Thus, most of the shower activity will continue to be concentrated over the open Gulf waters through this afternoon; however, a few showers will be possible over the immediate coast. No rain is expected tonight, but moisture will begin to increase once again as a warm front lifts over the region through the day on Sunday. Although, model PWATs only increase to be between 1.2-1.4 inches during this time. At this point, only expecting slight to chance PoPs over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama from mid-morning Sunday through the afternoon. With little to no instability present in the model guidance, not anticipating thunderstorms to accompany this increase in shower activity.

Current temperatures are in the upper 40s to mid 50s inland, with areas along the immediate coast in the upper 50s. Did adjust lows to reflect the slow decline in temperatures overnight. Lows late tonight/early this morning are on track to generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 50s south. Clouds will largely persist through the near term period; although, some clearing is possible over our interior northeast counties through today before the clouds return this evening. Thus, high temperatures this afternoon will be mild, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight are expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 and in the mid 50s south. The increase in moisture will result in warmer high temperatures on Sunday. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are therefore expected, with highs around 70 degrees over southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama.

Lastly, there is a LOW RISK of rip currents today followed by a MODERATE RISK tonight and Sunday. /26

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Monday night/ . The zonal flow pattern aloft will persist across the north central Gulf Coast region Sunday afternoon and evening, but will gradually transition more southwesterly late Sunday night into Monday well in advance of a potent upper level shortwave trough that will be ejecting from the southern Rocky Mountains and into the central plains and adjacent upper midwestern states. A southerly surface flow pattern will also continue across our forecast area Sunday night into Monday between a surface ridge of high pressure that will be shifting from the Eastern Seaboard to the western Atlantic and an area of surface low pressure lifting from west Texas to the central plains/Upper Midwest.

Low level moisture will increase across our forecast area late Sunday into Monday within the southerly low level flow regime, and surface dewpoints are forecast to rise into the lower to mid 60s through Monday afternoon. Weak isentropic ascent within moistening southwest flow aloft could result in the development of a few light rain showers across interior southeast MS and southwest AL Sunday night. Short range model guidance remains in agreement with bringing a zone of enhanced moisture and ascent eastward into our southeast MS and southwest AL counties late Monday morning into Monday afternoon well in advance of the ejecting shortwave and also ahead of the surface cold front that will be moving toward the Mississippi Valley region during the afternoon. Temperatures warming into the lower to mid 70s along with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s by Monday afternoon will promote a zone of instability and associated MLCAPE values up to around 500-800 J/KG across southeast MS and southwest AL by Monday afternoon. Low level southwesterly flow also strengthens to 35-40 knots across this portion of the CWA along the instability axis by Monday afternoon, which will favor the development of scattered to numerous rain showers as well as a few thunderstorms as ascent spreads into the region. Low level shear and instability could be sufficient for a few strong to marginally severe storms Monday afternoon and evening, particularly across interior southeast MS/southwest AL and will need to monitor this potential closely over the next couple of days.

Aside from the rain and storm potential, the increasing low level moisture will bring an increased chance of fog development across our region on Sunday night and possibly into Monday night. Confidence was high enough to at least include mention of patchy fog in the forecast on Sunday night. Increasing onshore flow will bring an increasing risk of rip currents, especially going into Monday and Monday night, when the risk becomes HIGH. /21

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . The cold front will still be moving across the area Tuesday morning and likely stall near the coast Tuesday afternoon. This will maintain rain chances through the day on Tuesday and into Wednesday as the front returns rapidly northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Deep southerly flow returns with PWATs of 1.5-1.7 inches spreading into the area, especially the southern half of the area. Meanwhile, a fast moving shortwave will eject eastward on Wednesday with an associated sfc low developing across northern Mississippi and moving northeast. A trailing cold front will moving through the area during the afternoon with continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. This system will have to be monitored for the potential of a few strong thunderstorms. A cooler and drier airmass finally moves into the area for the end of the week.

Temperatures remain mild on Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures on the way later in the week. Rip current risk will likely remain elevated through at least Tuesday. /13

MARINE . A light to moderate easterly flow will prevail through much of the weekend. Although, operators of small craft should exercise caution over the open Gulf waters today. Moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow is then expected Sunday night through Monday night ahead of the next system. This will result in at least small craft exercise caution conditions; however, this will be monitored for a potential Small Craft Advisory if winds and seas trend higher. A cold front will also bring chances for thunderstorms over the marine area Monday afternoon through Monday night. After the passage of the cold front, light to moderate northerly flow will take hold in its wake on Tuesday. With the approach of yet another system, southerly flow will then return by midweek. Increasing low level moisture will also favor the development of sea fog across bays/sounds and possibly portions of the nearshore coastal waters early next week. 26/21

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi53 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 59°F 58°F1021.7 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi53 min ENE 7 G 8.9 57°F 59°F1021.8 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi53 min NNE 5.1 G 7
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi41 min 18 G 19 58°F 61°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi18 minENE 610.00 miOvercast62°F42°F48%1021.3 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi18 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F40°F48%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3N5N5N4NW4NW6SW6
1 day agoS8S7W9SW6W3SW6SW6W6SW6SW6SW6NW4CalmNW2NW2NW1NW1NW3NW3SE2E3S6S8S5
2 days agoSW9SW6W9W9W6W6W6W6W6W6W6W6W3NW3NW4NW5NW4NW3NW1W3W2NW3SW7SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:59 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:15 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:41 PM CST     0.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-00.10.10.20.30.40.40.40.50.40.40.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:24 AM CST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:15 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:45 PM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.1-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.100.20.30.50.70.911.11.11.11

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.