Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:18PM Sunday January 26, 2020 5:39 AM CST (11:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:01AMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 330 Am Cst Sun Jan 26 2020
Today..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 330 Am Cst Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis..Light offshore winds will become a light to moderate onshore Sunday through Sunday night as a surface low passes south of area waters. Light to moderate offshore flow returns Monday lasting into Wednesday when a second surface low approaches area waters. Light to moderate east to southeast flow lasts through the rest of the week as a third system begins to move east over the northern gulf. Seas ranging from 1 to 4 feet expected through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 261058 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 458 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/. An upper level shortwave trough passes over the Southeast today through Monday. An associated weakly organized surface low moves east over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight though Monday. The KMOB radar is showing rain-showers associated with this approaching system have begun to overspread southeast Mississippi, though a dry boundary layer is hampering the rain reaching the surface over western portions of the forecast area.

The showers will overspread the area today, then move east of the forecast area Monday morning as the upper shortwave trough passes east of the forecast area. Model soundings show little to no instability for thunderstorm development over land portions of the forecast area. Enough is indicated over the open Gulf, closer to the surface low's path, to warrant the addition of an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly tonight into Monday morning. With the lighter and spread out nature of the rain-showers, rainfall amounts for today through Monday are expected to total around 0.5" southwest of a Perry County, Mississippi to Baldwin County, Alabama line, tapering to around 0.2" over northern-most portions of the forecast area. Am not expecting any water ponding issues with this event. Rain cooling today will keep high temperatures from rising out of the 50s. With the abundant cloud cover and rain cooling tonight, low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are expected. With rain ending in the morning Monday, and the forecast area expected to see some sun as the cloud cover breaks, temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s are expected. /16

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/. As the first shortwave trough moves off, a second trough moves east from over the US Rockies to over the Mississippi River Valley by sunrise Wednesday. A surface ridge moves quickly east over the eastern Conus through the same period. A dry period in the forecast is expected Monday night through Tuesday as the southern end of the surface ridge moves over and east of the forecast area. Low temperatures Monday night in the low to mid 40s are expected. With guidance strongly indicating fog development possible, have added patchy fog to the forecast. How dense is hard to pin down at this time. High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are expected Tuesday as the a modest upper ridge passes over the Southeast. Cloud cover and rainshowers will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the upper trough moves over the Mississippi River Valley. A bit warmer night Tuesday night is expected, with low temperatures randing from the low 40s along and north of the Highway 84 corridor to the upper 40s along the coast and over southwestern-most portions of the forecast area. /16

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/. Light to moderate scattered to numerous rain showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning as the first of two systems in the long term impact the region. The first upper level shortwave will be passing over the lower Mississippi River Wednesday morning, and then over the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. A weak low pressure center reflected at the surface across Louisiana will move eastward, tracking just south of the northern gulf coast through Wednesday afternoon. This track will keep the forecast mainly in the cool sector along with a northeasterly wind flow, so convection will be shallow with no thunderstorms expected, except for a slight chance across our extreme southwest zones where SBCAPES could reach as high as 300 J/KG. Models are in good agreement with the timing of this system, so expecting the rain to taper off Wednesday afternoon. A brief dry pattern will then occur Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure builds in from the north.

An upper closed low pressure area over Texas Friday afternoon will advance eastward, evolving into an open wave before reaching the forecast area. The models differ in the timing and magnitude of this shortwave, with the ECMWF now being slower and stronger compared the weaker and faster GFS, so again the NBM offers a nice solution between the two until they become better aligned. While we are currently forecasting isolated to scattered precipitation Thursday through Saturday afternoon, this window will likely shorten as the models become better aligned as the event approaches. The models are in a little bit better agreement at the surface, where both develop low pressure centers across the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday, with the low tracking east- northeast through the remainder of the week. This track will keep the forecast area in the cool sector. so have kept any mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast pending better model consistency and forecaster confidence.

High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday through Saturday. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s Wednesday night through Saturday night. /22

MARINE. Light offshore winds will become a light to moderate onshore Sunday through Sunday night as a surface low passes south of area waters. Light to moderate offshore flow returns Monday as the surface low moves southeast of area waters, and lasts into Wednesday when a second surface low approaches area waters. Light to moderate east to southeast flow lasts through the rest of the week as a third system begins to move east over the northern Gulf. Seas ranging from 1 to 4 feet expected through the Thursday night.

AS the third surface low passed south of area waters Friday into Saturday, the easterly flow is expected to become moderate to strong, bringing building seas and SMall Craft Advisory conditions for Friday into the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Mobile 55 48 64 43 66 47 61 43 / 70 70 20 0 0 30 60 0 Pensacola 55 51 65 45 66 50 61 46 / 50 70 40 10 0 20 50 10 Destin 56 52 64 47 65 51 61 46 / 30 70 50 10 0 20 40 10 Evergreen 57 45 64 41 67 42 62 41 / 40 70 30 0 0 20 30 0 Waynesboro 56 46 64 39 65 43 59 39 / 60 70 10 0 0 30 50 0 Camden 58 45 61 40 64 42 58 40 / 30 60 20 0 0 20 30 0 Crestview 56 46 64 43 68 43 63 42 / 30 70 50 0 0 10 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi52 min 49°F 1021 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi58 min 47°F 61°F1019.7 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi58 min 58°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi40 min NNW 9.7 G 12 56°F 60°F1021 hPa (+0.7)51°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi44 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast42°F38°F88%1021 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi1.7 hrsNNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F38°F92%1019.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi47 minNNW 510.00 miFair47°F43°F86%1020.4 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi47 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F92%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmN4CalmN10NW5NW6NW6N7N6NW4W5NW6W4NW5NW4CalmNW7NW3N3CalmN3NW4
1 day agoCalmNW7NW4NW8NW9NW10NW9W9NW10N10N7NW6W3W3W6W5NW6NW7NW6N7N9N5N6Calm
2 days agoE6E9NE5E3E5E9E8E4E7E6NE3E3E5E4E7E8E9E13SE8CalmE9E7CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:47 AM CST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:02 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:37 PM CST     0.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.40.30.20.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.40.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM CST     1.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:18 PM CST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:03 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.21.110.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.70.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.