Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 7:52PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:24 AM CDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:45AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 333 Am Cdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..Winds light becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 333 Am Cdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow prevails through Thursday then switches to an east to southeast flow on Friday. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms will be possible through the period mainly near the coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 130927 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 427 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/. An upper trof over the eastern states finally moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday. In response, an upper ridge centered along the Mexico/U.S. border into the western Gulf expands eastward across the southeastern states, although it was noted that a series of shortwaves continue to move across the area through the period despite this eastward expansion of the upper ridge. A combination of a weak surface trof/front and an outflow boundary in the wake of the previous night's convection results in a predominately light northerly surface flow over the forecast area today except for becoming southwesterly near the coast as a weak sea breeze develops with daytime heating. A light northerly surface flow prevails tonight then again becomes southerly near the coast on Tuesday with daytime heating. Abundant dry air will be present above 750 mb today which results in wet bulb zero values near 10-11 kft. Similar values will be present over the eastern portion of the area on Tuesday while further to the west will see improving mid level moisture. Considering this, am concerned about the potential for strong to potentially severe storm development each day, although this is offset by convective coverage looking to be mostly isolated. As a series of shortwaves continue to move across the area through the period have gone with slight chance to low end chance pops each day, with the potential for the higher coverage over the southern portion of the area where the weak sea breeze develops. Highs today will be mostly in the mid 90s and have expanded the Heat Advisory currently in effect for portions of interior southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama to include all of the western Florida panhandle. Lows tonight mostly range from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the mid 90s, and another heat advisory will likely be required for the southern portion of the area. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday. /29

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night/. An upper level ridge over the Southern Plains continues to expand further east toward the local area as an upper level trough lifts out of the East Coast during the short term. As the main trough departs to the east, the southern extent lags and a weak trough/low at 300mb drifts through the Southeast early in the short term. This feature eventually gets pushed into the Gulf as the ridge nudges closer to the region. The local area remains on the eastern periphery of the ridge with a general northerly flow aloft. Operational models continue to show shortwaves traveling around the periphery of the ridge aloft with a subtle shortwave sliding into the Southeast early in the short term. Down near the surface, the western Atlantic ridge continues to spill into the central Gulf during the period.

Drier air in the mid and upper levels will continue to get dragged into the northern portion of the area during the period, which should suppress convection somewhat across inland areas. Thunderstorm activity will be isolated to scattered on Wednesday afternoon with the main focus of storms occurring closer to the coast where higher amounts of deep layer moisture are located. Showers and storms will taper off a little after sunset on Wednesday evening.

Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to low 90s yet again on Wednesday. The heat index will generally range from 102°-106° across much of the area with a few spots near the coast and in the river delta rising to near 108°. Overnight lows continue to sound like a broken record, as usual this time of year, with temperatures only falling into the mid to low 70s inland with upper 70s to near 80° at the beaches on both nights. 07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/. Northeast to east mid level flow prevails through the extended term period, but becoming more predominately easterly toward the end of the period as a mid level high pressure ridge becomes entrenched across the eastern portion of the country but to the north of our forecast area. Meanwhile, weak high pressure at the sfc will maintain a weak flow pattern. The winds will primarily be diurnally-driven with the daily sea/land breeze cycle and afternoon heating through the period. Daily thunderstorm chances continue to hover around the 40 to 60 percent during the afternoon hours throughout the period as weak disturbances embedded within the easterly flow aloft pass over the area and act on a moist and moderately unstable boundary layer. The coverage of showers and storms will be focused along the sea breeze near the coast each late morning into early afternoon and then farther inland during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Daytime temperatures will continue to hover in the mid 90s inland and low 90s along the coast, with heat indices remaining in the 100 to 107 degree range. Lows will continue to be in the mid 70s over the interior and in the upper 70s near and along the coast each night. /13/12

MARINE. No impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near showers and storms. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

FL . Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS . Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM . None.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi54 min NW 4.1 G 8.9 77°F 86°F1012.4 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi54 min NNE 1 G 2.9 77°F 75°F1012.5 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi54 min W 4.1 G 5.1
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi34 min NW 9.7 G 14 82°F 84°F2 ft1012.5 hPa74°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi88 minWNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F73°F92%1011.4 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi88 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F72°F86%1010.6 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi31 minNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F79%1011.8 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi31 minNW 410.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW10NW10NW10NW11----NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM CDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:21 AM CDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:44 AM CDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:30 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.70.80.9111.11.1110.90.90.80.70.70.60.60.60.60.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.