Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tallahassee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:23PM Thursday October 1, 2020 11:10 AM EDT (15:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 6:10AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 916 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020 /816 Am Cdt Thu Oct 1 2020/
Today..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 knots becoming north 20 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 916 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis.. Light winds and low seas are expected today, though a frontal passage later tonight will result in advisory level conditions once again. After tomorrow, borderline cautionary conditions are forecast for the foreseeable future as winds remain elevated between a tropical wave to our south and high pressure to our north.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tallahassee, FL
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location: 30.46, -84.25     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 011441 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1041 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

UPDATE.

No changes were made to the previous forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION [649 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Another cool, dry day is in store to begin the month of October. A post-frontal airmass remains in place over the area, with surface high pressure to the west ushering in northwest flow. A secondary cold front (albeit drier than its predecessor) is forecast to swing down tonight as a northern stream upper trough becomes more established across the eastern US. These features should bring a reinforced shot of cool, dry air from the northwest, keeping rain suppressed. Little to no clouds are expected through the period.

Calm winds overnight become northwesterly at around 5 kts during the afternoon, then veer to the north-northwest this evening with the arrival of the aforementioned front. Slightly warmer high temperatures are forecast today (low 80s) as mostly sunny skies prevail. Since Wed's low temperatures were slightly lower than forecast, (especially for the western 1/3 of the CWA), and similar early-morning conditions are expected Thurs, decided to reduce min T by a couple of degrees (mid/upper 50s areawide) after blending NBM and CONSAll guidance.

For October 2020, the CPC predicts below-average temperatures and equal chances of above or below-average precipitation. In Tallahassee, the average max/min temperatures are 81.4/57.3, and the state capital receives 3.23 inches of rain.

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday].

The upper-level eastern CONUS trough will remain in place through Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will move east with flow across the Tri-State region gradually veering more easterly at the base of the ridge. Highs will remain in the middle to upper 70s each day, with lows ranging from near 50 degrees in SE AL up to the upper 50s in the SE Big Bend on Saturday morning. No rain is expected.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday].

The superpositioning of shortwaves over the Midwest will result in a more progressive northern stream pattern as the consolidated wave advects ENE and pulls the eastern CONUS trough out of the Southeast. As the trough lifts north, the subtropical ridge will ease back into the W. Atlantic/Florida/E. Gulf region resulting in low/mid tropospheric flow veering more southerly. Meanwhile, a tropical wave is forecast to move into the western Caribbean and then possibly into the southern or western Gulf. As the wave enters the western Caribbean, another shortwave is forecast to move across the Midwest, but under the influence of the subtropical ridge, the core of the shortwave will remain well north of the Southeast. So, while convection is forecast to advect north from the tropical wave into the eastern Gulf (along with an old frontal boundary), the shortwave moving through the Midwest will amplify the longwave trough enough to push the subtropical ridge a bit further south, veering steering flow more westerly. This sets up low-level northeasterly flow and upper-level southwesterly flow that works against influences from either system reaching the local area. So, lying between these to areas of more active weather, we could see very little rainfall up until mid-week. The best chances for rain will be across the southeastern Big Bend and the immediate Panhandle coast. This pattern will remain highly dependent on the eventual size, intensity, and track of the tropical wave and should be considered a low- confidence forecast at this time.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Friday]

Outside of VLD seeing borderline MVFR vsbys early this morning, VFR conds are ongoing at all terminals. Mostly clear skies and light northwest winds prevail thru today before a dry cold front moves across the area tonight. After frontal passage, winds shift out of the north/north-northwest AOB 10 kts for DHN/ECP/ABY in the 5-6Z timeframe, and TLH/VLD around 9Z.

MARINE.

Light winds and low seas are expected today, though a frontal passage later tonight will result in advisory level conditions once again. After tomorrow, borderline Cautionary conditions are forecast for the foreseeable future as winds remain elevated between a tropical wave to our south and high pressure to our north.

FIRE WEATHER.

Dry conditions prevail over the next few days, with light northwest transport winds and low dispersions across the Big Bend and portions of southwest GA. A cold front is forecast to sweep across the area Thurs night, increasing transport winds to around 10-15 kts out of the north to north-northwest. High dispersions mostly along the I-10 corridor are expected Fri afternoon. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns as min RH values will remain above critical thresholds.

HYDROLOGY.

Widespread or heavy rain is not forecast over the next several days. All area rivers remain below flood stage with a continued downward trend in river levels expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 82 57 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 58 76 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 82 53 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 54 73 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 81 56 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 82 58 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 81 59 77 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . Bunker NEAR TERM . IG SHORT TERM . Harrigan LONG TERM . Harrigan AVIATION . IG MARINE . Harrigan FIRE WEATHER . IG HYDROLOGY . Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 28 mi136 min N 5.1 G 7 64°F 1017.9 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 56 mi70 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 1018.7 hPa (+1.2)56°F
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 57 mi85 min NNE 4.1 1020 hPa

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tallahassee - Tallahassee International Airport, FL7 mi17 minNNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds73°F55°F53%1018.5 hPa
Quincy Municipal Airport, FL19 mi15 minN 010.00 miFair72°F57°F61%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTLH

Wind History from TLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE8N8NW8N6NW7N8N5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3
1 day agoNW12NW11NW17N16
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N12N9N10N10------------CalmNW6NW4NW4N5N3
2 days agoSW10SW10SW6S8S6S9S8SE4CalmSW5CalmE3CalmSE3CalmW3SW3S3SW5W3CalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida
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St. Marks
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:09 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:27 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.43.13.43.22.82.21.610.70.711.62.43.13.63.53.22.61.91.30.80.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks River Entrance, Florida (2) (expired 1995-12-31)
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St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:58 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.23.63.63.22.61.81.20.80.71.11.72.53.23.73.93.632.21.50.90.70.91.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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