Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niceville, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:18PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:23 AM CDT (09:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:58AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 1032 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers late in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1032 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate south to southwest wind is expected to develop tonight and persist through midweek. A light to moderate northwest to northerly flow is anticipated late in the week, with seas building slightly through the week. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms will develop tonight into Monday, before periods of scattered showers and Thunderstorms continue through the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niceville, FL
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location: 30.5, -86.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 260446 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1146 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... General upper end MVFR toVFR conditions were
noted across the area during the late evening, with localized low
end MVFR to ifr conditions in scattered rain showers and a few
thunderstorms. Coverage and intensity will decrease in intensity
and some-what in coverage through the overnight hours, though
local drops in CIGS and visbys to low end MVFR or ifr levels
remain possible in the continued convection. Winds will remain
generally out of the south at around 5 knots, a bit stronger and
variable closer to the coast.

Monday, coverage and intensity of convection will increase as a
mid level shortwave moves closer to the forecast area from the
west. Conditions are expected to remain at upper end MVFR or
higher outside of convection, though mid to low end MVFR
conditions remain likely in and near the convection. Coverage and
intensity is expected to be great strong enough to impact
operations at times. Winds will be out of the south around 10
knots. 16

Prev discussion issued 1018 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... The forecast was generally in good shape, and only minor
adjustments were made to trend pops upward overnight. Deep
tropical moisture will continue to be drawn northeastward toward
southeast ms and southwest al overnight as an upper level trough
translates east of the mississippi valley region. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will continue to develop over the region
overnight, and have increased pops a bit from the previous
forecast (60-80% range). We will continue to monitor for heavy
rainfall and a limited potential of flash flooding, especially
going into the day Monday as the trough approaches and deep
tropical moisture continues to stream over the region. 21
prev discussion... Issued 645 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... General MVFR toVFR conditions were noted across
the area outside of scattered shra tsra just before 00z. The
convection is expected to continue well into the overnight hours
slowly decreasing on coverage and strengthen. General MVFR or
higher conditions expected. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots are
expected in the overnight hours.

An upper system approaching from the west will bring an increase
in coverage and strength of convection to the area Monday morning
into the afternoon. Low to mid range MVFR conditions will start
the day and increase to upper end MVFRVFR. Low to mid range MVFR
conditions are expected in the convection, with impacts to
operations possible during Monday. Southerly winds around 10
knots are expected. 16
prev discussion... Issued 405 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
near term now through Monday ... Now through this evening ongoing
showers with isolated heavy rainfall will linger into the
overnight hours with gradually increasing coverage after mid
night. Upper level trough axis extending from the southern
minnesota to central louisiana pivots eastward during the near
term and will act as the main lifting mechanism for widespread
rainfall throughout the day Monday. Wpc has southern alabama and
southeast mississippi outlooked with a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. What provides the liquid necessary for the heavy rain is
an area of deep tropical moisture over the northern gulf of
mexico. This slowly drifts onshore overnight tonight into Monday
morning aided by a 50kt jet streak over arkansas. This region of
disorganized tropical rainfall is quite saturated with
precipitable water values of 2.20 to 2.50 inches. This is well
above the 90% moving average for sounding climatology and as a
result showers within this environment will likely have rain rates
greater than 0.30 to 1.00 per hour with isolate storms of higher
rainfall rates possible. By Monday morning heavy rain should begin
to enter our southeastern mississippi counties then gradually
expand north eastward throughout the day. The axis of heaviest
rainfall is expected to remain over southeastern mississippi with
totals around 2.00 to 4.00 inches while the rest of our forecast
area will likely see rainfall totals greater than 1.00 inch.

Though the majority of the convection is expected to be rather
disorganized, if rainfall coalesces into a line of training storms
some flash flooding along flashy creek and in areas of poor
drainage will be possible. Otherwise expect localized street
flooding and ponding of water in low line areas. Severe potential
in this environment remains low as the wind profile will be
lacking in the needed shear. However, CAPE values ranging from
1500-2500 j kg will provided enough energy for some strong
thunderstorms embedded within the widespread rain. Temperatures
during the day should only be able to reach the mid 80s as
rainfall is expected to regulate afternoon highs. Dj 17
short term Monday night through Wednesday night ... Shower and
thunderstorm coverage decreases becoming more scattered across the
alabama and florida portions of the forecast area and generally
isolated over SE mississippi. The mid upper level trough will
linger over the area overnight helping to keep convection going on
outflow boundaries that developed during the afternoon hours.

Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s inland to mid to
upper 70s near the coast.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across the
area on Tuesday as the upper level trough lingers over the area and
the pbl heats up increasing instability area wide. Daytime highs
Tuesday are expected to climb into the upper 80s to around 90.

Convection gradually dissipates overnight as the upper trough over
the area lifts out. Upstream another shortwave trough digging
southeast across the midwestern states drives an approaching cold
front into the central al, ms area. Overnight lows Tuesday night
are expected to range from the low to mid 70s over interior counties
and mid to upper 70s near the coast.

The approaching cold front pushes southward across the area
Wednesday and moves out over the gulf Wednesday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop during the day along and ahead of
this boundary shifting south over the marine area during the evening
hours. A drier, northerly flow will follow in the wake of this
system. Cooler overnight lows anticipated Wednesday night, falling
into the mid 60s to near 70 over northern inland locations and low
to mid 70s closer to the coast. 08
long term Thursday through Sunday ... Drier air will filter into the
area in the post frontal airmass. Dry conditions are forecast
through Friday as low and mid level high pressure suppresses
convection. Afternoon convection develops again on Saturday and
Sunday as a moist low level return flow develops and minor
shortwaves aloft propagate across the region. Lacking extensive
afternoon convection and widespread cloud cover afternoon high
temperatures should climb to near 90 to the mid 90s each day.

Overnight lows Thursday night and Friday night will be pleasant
falling into the low to mid 60s over northern interior sites to mid
60s to near 70 closer to the coast. Overnight lows Saturday night
warm more consistent with climatological norms as the onshore
flow develops. 08
marine... Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday.

Light to moderate onshore flow begins as storms form over the
western marine zones then shift eastward into the evening. Isolated
to scatter showers continue through mid week. Late Wednesday a cold
front passes through the marine areas causing winds to strengthen
and become northerly. Waves increase to around 2 to 3 feet mid
through late in the week beneath the frontal passage but gradually
relax. Next weekend, additional showers and thunderstorms with
increased seas will be possible. Dj 17

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi54 min E 6 G 9.9 78°F 87°F1013.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 40 mi54 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 83°F 87°F1012.8 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi54 min ENE 7 G 9.9 87°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 65 mi44 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 83°F 86°F1012.5 hPa77°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi4.5 hrsENE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F72°F79%1014.8 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi2.5 hrsESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F88%1013 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL20 mi2.5 hrsN 08.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmE7NE5E3SE7S7S9S10S10S10S10
G15
S8S7SE4S3E5NE5E3CalmNE3NE4E5
1 day agoCalmN3N4N4N3CalmCalmS4SW6S8S7S8SW10W7W5W5W3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3NW5
2 days agoCalmNE3N4CalmCalmE3SE4W8CalmS7S7S5S7SW3CalmW4W3W3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM CDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:20 PM CDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.50.60.70.70.80.80.80.80.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.10000.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.811.21.41.61.81.9221.91.81.61.41.20.90.70.40.30.10.100.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.