Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Niceville, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:30PM Friday August 14, 2020 6:05 AM CDT (11:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:39AMMoonset 4:04PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 445 Am Cdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Today..Winds light becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 445 Am Cdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure extending from the western atlantic into the central gulf will persist through the weekend. Meanwhile, a surface trough will move into the southeast states. This results in a light to occasionally moderate westerly flow through the weekend. Seas briefly build late tonight into Saturday morning with a brief increase in the westerly flow. A light offshore flow develops early next week as the surface trough briefly moves into the extreme northern gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niceville, FL
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location: 30.5, -86.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 140941 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 441 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/. It's already an active convective morning across across the Gulf waters with some of the convection impacting coastal areas, especially across NW FL. A broad mid level trough axis is positioned from west TN down into extreme SE Louisiana and convection has quickly developed early this morning to the east of the trough axis as we reach the marine diurnal instability max. Isolated to scattered storms have also developed further inland, especially just north and west of our area. We are expecting things to stay convectively active as we go through the day into tonight across the region in response to this trough axis. In addition, another shortwave moving into northwest Arkansas early this morning will quickly move southeast today into tonight and serve as yet another impetus for convection. Given the very moist (precip waters at or above 2") and unstable airmass (MLCAPES 1500- 2500 J/kg), scattered to numerous storms are expected, though it will be difficult to determine the exact convective evolution as we go through the day and night. In fact, the CAMs have been very inconsistent. However, they have been signaling that the outflow produced by the convective complex organizing over NW Arkansas may produce a semi-organized line of storms that moves into SE MS/SW AL later this afternoon and early this evening. If this comes to fruition, there could be a risk for strong, gusty winds and perhaps an isolated severe storm with damaging winds. Torrential downpours will also accompany the stronger convection and this could lead to some localized, minor flooding issues.

While convection typically diminishes late in the evening into the overnight hours this time of year, the presence of the shortwave trough will serve to keep at least isolated to scattered storms going through a good portion of the night, with an enhanced coverage likely along the immediate coast and offshore in the overnight/pre dawn hours.

Scattered to numerous storms are expected to continue into Saturday morning, however there is likely to be a decrease in coverage over inland SE MS/SW AL by the afternoon as the shortwave trough begins to move east and drier air starts to move into the area.

The greater coverage in storms/clouds will keep highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Lows remain in the 70s, typical for this time of year. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Sunday night/. An upper trof over central Canada and western Great Lakes merges with another upper trof over the eastern states to form a larger scale upper trof over the eastern states. An associated surface low will be located initially near the Carolinas with a surface trof/weak cold front extending southwestward across southern/central Alabama into southern Mississippi. As the surface low moves off to the northeast, the surface trof/weak front progresses southward through the forecast area into the northern Gulf Saturday night, briefly returns to the near the coast on Sunday, then slips back into the northern Gulf Sunday night. A longwave ridge mainly over the western and south central states meanwhile strengthens, with 500 mb heights potentially reaching a seldom seen 600+ dm over Utah. This pattern maintains a deep layer light northerly flow over the forecast area which ushers progressively drier air into the region on Sunday, with precipitable water values dropping to 1.2-1.5 inches implying limited precipitation chances. Some predominately isolated lingering convection will be possible Saturday evening roughly along and south of I-65, and may linger near the coast overnight, then for Sunday am expecting isolated at best showers and storms, and even this may be overdone. Dry conditions prevail for Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 100-107. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents continues through the period. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/. By early Monday, the upper level trough axis will be just to the east of the forecast area, but by Monday night into Tuesday longer range models indicate shortwave energy from the northwest will likely again sharpen upper level trough over our area. This trough will possibly develop into a weak upper level low just off to the west of our forecast area by Thursday, with occasional pieces of shortwave energy moving across our area. At the surface, a weak front/boundary will be lingering along the coast or just offshore through the extended period. With a light mostly northerly flow, PWATS will be less than 1.5 inches across most of the area Monday and Tuesday, but increase slightly Wednesday and Thursday to around 1.8 inches as front becomes diffuse and flow becomes more southerly. Dewpoints will likely be in the 60s for much of the period as well, especially overnight and again in the afternoons with daytime mixing. Will have slight chance pops on Monday then slight chance to chance pops Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, there may be a slightly higher coverage of showers and storms, especially eastern areas, as dewpoints slowly increase. Highs each day mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows each night in the upper 60s and lower 70s inland and the mid and upper 70s at the coast. /12

MARINE. Westerly winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kts late tonight into Saturday morning as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. This will build seas up to 3ft over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will diminish by Saturday night into Sunday. Numerous storms are expected over the marine waters through Saturday. Locally higher wind/waves, torrential downpours, frequent lightning can be expected. Waterspouts are also possible. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi48 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 87°F1015.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 40 mi48 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 87°F1014.2 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi48 min S 8.9 G 13
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 65 mi36 min SW 12 G 16 79°F 87°F1014.4 hPa74°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi70 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F72°F94%1014.8 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi73 minN 310.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1014 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi70 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F72°F91%1013.7 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL20 mi73 minN 08.00 miFair72°F70°F94%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3N6NE5N3SW5S11
G16
E12CalmCalmNW3SW3NW1N5N4NE3E3NW2CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3E4N4NE3N8NE4NE3E3S11S10
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S9S11SW8SW6W5W3NW2CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN3
2 days agoCalmCalmW564NW7W3S9S12NW6S10E18
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NE9N3W3CalmCalmW3NE5W3N4N6CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM CDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:07 PM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.50.50.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.60.50.50.40.30.20.10.10.100.10.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM CDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.811.11.31.51.61.71.81.81.71.61.51.31.10.80.60.40.30.20.10.10.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.