Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Denham Springs, LA
December 8, 2023 10:26 PM CST (04:26 UTC)
Sunrise 6:47AM Sunset 5:04PM Moonrise 2:30AM Moonset 2:06PM
GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 927 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of sprinkles late this evening. Patchy dense fog late.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of sprinkles late this evening. Patchy dense fog late.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 927 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
light to moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots can be expected in advance of an approaching cold front tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will sweep through the waters tomorrow night, and winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase in speed to 25 to 30 knots over all of the waters. These high winds will also push seas to between 6 and 10 feet over the open gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. These rough conditions will last through Monday morning before improving as high pressure briefly settles in. However, another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday will increase easterly flow to near 20 knots. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 7 feet in the open gulf waters.
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
light to moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots can be expected in advance of an approaching cold front tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will sweep through the waters tomorrow night, and winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase in speed to 25 to 30 knots over all of the waters. These high winds will also push seas to between 6 and 10 feet over the open gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. These rough conditions will last through Monday morning before improving as high pressure briefly settles in. However, another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday will increase easterly flow to near 20 knots. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 7 feet in the open gulf waters.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KLIX 082336 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 536 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Performed a brief gridded update to bring in recent radar/obs trends. Seeing isolated showers/drizzle across the area in response to a subtle mid-level impulse pressing east within progressive SW flow all within a building WAA/Gulf return flow regime which has helped to squeeze out just enough precipitation in a few areas. Added in some of this as guidance struggled at revealing what radar trends illustrate with a blend of 15 PoP trending downward to 10 with mention of drizzle in areas 10-14% which should last through around 02-04Z this evening before we steadily dry out some. Ofcourse the next focus becomes if low clouds can build down and we see surface fog development overnight. NBM probabilities are honing in on areas generally along and east of I-55 with % chance of <1sm in the 30-40% range and thinking with wet ground due to the light showers tonight might not have too much difficulty to aid in fog production/maintenance. Just not overly confident on the coverage/extent at this time especially if light onshore winds try to mix this out reducing the potential for dense fog, but will monitor closely.
Noticed also the same shallow shower potential by 15-17Z in response to subtle lift approaching the area within ongoing WAA which was introduced in the PoPs. Will have to watch if/when we can begin to erode a low-level inversion during the day in response to deep-moist ascent, but the degree of lift will be hard to come by unless we can get something to boost it, i.e. diurnal surface heating but that's in question. Going to roll with shallow showers underneath the inversion during the late morning/afternoon hours for aforementioned reasoning, but am taking note of some CAMs building some pre-frontal convection earlier on mid/late afternoon, will keep an eye on it but still anticipating the bulk of scattered showers/strong storms to come later in the evening as the front approaches, and provides a brief window of best (albeit weak) dynamic lift/shear to support a few strong storms, isolated severe for western areas, weakening as it progresses east overnight. Will be diving deeper overnight with new guidance for the morning package ahead. KLG
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
The primary forecast concern for tonight will the risk of some locally dense fog developing over portions of Southwest Mississippi and the Northshore. This fog will be highly conditioned on boundary layer winds falling below 10 knots, and the confidence is not quite there to issue a dense fog advisory at this time. Otherwise, low overcast conditions and mild overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s can be expected on the back of continued onshore flow.
Heading into tomorrow and tomorrow night, a strong positively tilted longwave trough will slide through the forecast area.
During the day tomorrow, deep layer southwest flow will strengthen as the trough axis approaches from the northwest. Any fog in the morning will quickly mix out as winds increase to between 10 and 15 mph. This deep layer onshore flow will also allow for continued warm air advection from the southern Gulf back into the region, and highs will easily climb into the mid to upper 70s. A few locations may even touch 80 in the afternoon. Moisture will gradually deepen through the day as this southwest flow persists, and this will allow precipitable water values to rise a good half an inch from the morning into the evening. PWATS will be approaching 1.5 inches by evening, and this will be enough moisture to support the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as forcing gradually increases over the region.
Peak forcing will occur tomorrow night as the upper level trough axis and an attendant strong cold front sweep through the forecast area.
Sounding analysis indicates that a marginal degree of instability could take hold in advance of the front with MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/KG possible in the early evening. Shear values will also peak in this timeframe with 0-6km shear of 35 to 40 knots and directional shear of around 150 m2/s2. These values would be supportive of a few strong to severe storms, especially closer to the front over portions of Southwest Mississippi and northwest portions of metro Baton Rouge. By late evening into the overnight hours, conditions become much less favorable for strong to severe convection as shear values diminish and instability falls to 500 J/kg or less. In fact, most of the convection will likely become elevated and post-frontal by late evening. The progressive nature of the convection will also limit rainfall totals to generally around an inch or less.
By Sunday morning, the trough axis and front will be east of the area. Strong negative vorticity advection in the wake of the trough will lead to rapidly clearing skies through the day. A deep cold pool will also feed into the region, and 925mb temperatures will drop to around 40F. These values are supportive of surface temperatures in the mid to upper 50s Sunday afternoon.
Additionally, a very sharp pressure gradient between the trough and the high building in will lead to gusty winds of 15 to 20 mph through the day. Thus, despite the sunny skies expected by afternoon, a chilly and blustery day can be expected. Sunday night will also be cold with lows falling below freezing over the northern half of the CWA and into the upper 30s and lower 40s over the southern half. Winds will also remain elevated at around 10 to 15 mph, and this will push wind chill values into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
By Monday the back side of the current trough is moving into slight ridging and southern branch flow. A surface high moves quickly across the area in the lea of the trough. Toward mid-week a low moves into the western US and provides a path for moisture return over the northern Gulf and into TX. By the end of the week there are some minor differences in global model solutions, but overall the low pressure moves slowly east while the ridging builds in amplitude over the eastern US.
All this results in chilly temps warming slightly through the end of the week and little to no rain. Early in the week we will have lots of sun, but will transition as the week progresses to seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds early in the week will be dominated by the surface high and generally light and variable followed by a shift to light and easterly for the remainder of the period. Of most note may be daytime RHs that may dip into the 40% range early in the week, but should increase as the additional moisture returns increase mid to late week.
NBM values are accepted, especially since there is very little variability in the ensemble members. However, slight downward adjustments to lows were made in cold air drainage areas on Monday and Tuesday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Few isolated SHRA across most terminals this evening, which may bring a brief period of lower VIS/CIGs but will remain mainly isolated with VFR outside of this activity. Main focus for the overnight hours will be low stratus build down overnight mainly for terminals along/east of I-55 to coastal MS and across coastal areas. Introduced some of this working to the surface as a brief window of FG for terminals with greater confidence, revealing reduced flight categories to IFR (perhaps less at times). Will need to monitor how any fog could linger nearby coastal terminals after daybreak, with most inland terminals improving but CIGs will be slow to respond. Expecting isolated shower development again around 15-17Z increasing in coverage thereafter, but will be getting a better idea of timing with greater rain chances Saturday afternoon/evening with subsequent TAF cycle updates. KLG
MARINE
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
A rather rough period of weather is expected over the marine zones through the middle of next week as a series of weather systems impacts the northern Gulf. Initially, a strong cold front will sweep through the waters tomorrow night. In the wake of the front, strong winds of 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts and very rough seas of 6 to 10 feet will develop on Sunday and continue into Monday morning before easing. After a brief period of calmer conditions Monday afternoon into Monday night, another low pressure system developing in the central Gulf will begin to produce higher winds and seas over the waters on Tuesday.
Increasing easterly flow of 15 to 20 knots will combine with a long fetch and increasing swell train to push seas up to nearly 10 feet by Thursday over the outer waters.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 77 44 55 / 20 50 100 40 BTR 62 81 48 56 / 20 40 90 30 ASD 59 78 49 59 / 20 20 90 50 MSY 62 79 52 59 / 20 30 90 50 GPT 60 75 51 61 / 20 20 90 60 PQL 59 79 52 64 / 20 20 90 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 536 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Performed a brief gridded update to bring in recent radar/obs trends. Seeing isolated showers/drizzle across the area in response to a subtle mid-level impulse pressing east within progressive SW flow all within a building WAA/Gulf return flow regime which has helped to squeeze out just enough precipitation in a few areas. Added in some of this as guidance struggled at revealing what radar trends illustrate with a blend of 15 PoP trending downward to 10 with mention of drizzle in areas 10-14% which should last through around 02-04Z this evening before we steadily dry out some. Ofcourse the next focus becomes if low clouds can build down and we see surface fog development overnight. NBM probabilities are honing in on areas generally along and east of I-55 with % chance of <1sm in the 30-40% range and thinking with wet ground due to the light showers tonight might not have too much difficulty to aid in fog production/maintenance. Just not overly confident on the coverage/extent at this time especially if light onshore winds try to mix this out reducing the potential for dense fog, but will monitor closely.
Noticed also the same shallow shower potential by 15-17Z in response to subtle lift approaching the area within ongoing WAA which was introduced in the PoPs. Will have to watch if/when we can begin to erode a low-level inversion during the day in response to deep-moist ascent, but the degree of lift will be hard to come by unless we can get something to boost it, i.e. diurnal surface heating but that's in question. Going to roll with shallow showers underneath the inversion during the late morning/afternoon hours for aforementioned reasoning, but am taking note of some CAMs building some pre-frontal convection earlier on mid/late afternoon, will keep an eye on it but still anticipating the bulk of scattered showers/strong storms to come later in the evening as the front approaches, and provides a brief window of best (albeit weak) dynamic lift/shear to support a few strong storms, isolated severe for western areas, weakening as it progresses east overnight. Will be diving deeper overnight with new guidance for the morning package ahead. KLG
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
The primary forecast concern for tonight will the risk of some locally dense fog developing over portions of Southwest Mississippi and the Northshore. This fog will be highly conditioned on boundary layer winds falling below 10 knots, and the confidence is not quite there to issue a dense fog advisory at this time. Otherwise, low overcast conditions and mild overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s can be expected on the back of continued onshore flow.
Heading into tomorrow and tomorrow night, a strong positively tilted longwave trough will slide through the forecast area.
During the day tomorrow, deep layer southwest flow will strengthen as the trough axis approaches from the northwest. Any fog in the morning will quickly mix out as winds increase to between 10 and 15 mph. This deep layer onshore flow will also allow for continued warm air advection from the southern Gulf back into the region, and highs will easily climb into the mid to upper 70s. A few locations may even touch 80 in the afternoon. Moisture will gradually deepen through the day as this southwest flow persists, and this will allow precipitable water values to rise a good half an inch from the morning into the evening. PWATS will be approaching 1.5 inches by evening, and this will be enough moisture to support the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as forcing gradually increases over the region.
Peak forcing will occur tomorrow night as the upper level trough axis and an attendant strong cold front sweep through the forecast area.
Sounding analysis indicates that a marginal degree of instability could take hold in advance of the front with MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/KG possible in the early evening. Shear values will also peak in this timeframe with 0-6km shear of 35 to 40 knots and directional shear of around 150 m2/s2. These values would be supportive of a few strong to severe storms, especially closer to the front over portions of Southwest Mississippi and northwest portions of metro Baton Rouge. By late evening into the overnight hours, conditions become much less favorable for strong to severe convection as shear values diminish and instability falls to 500 J/kg or less. In fact, most of the convection will likely become elevated and post-frontal by late evening. The progressive nature of the convection will also limit rainfall totals to generally around an inch or less.
By Sunday morning, the trough axis and front will be east of the area. Strong negative vorticity advection in the wake of the trough will lead to rapidly clearing skies through the day. A deep cold pool will also feed into the region, and 925mb temperatures will drop to around 40F. These values are supportive of surface temperatures in the mid to upper 50s Sunday afternoon.
Additionally, a very sharp pressure gradient between the trough and the high building in will lead to gusty winds of 15 to 20 mph through the day. Thus, despite the sunny skies expected by afternoon, a chilly and blustery day can be expected. Sunday night will also be cold with lows falling below freezing over the northern half of the CWA and into the upper 30s and lower 40s over the southern half. Winds will also remain elevated at around 10 to 15 mph, and this will push wind chill values into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
By Monday the back side of the current trough is moving into slight ridging and southern branch flow. A surface high moves quickly across the area in the lea of the trough. Toward mid-week a low moves into the western US and provides a path for moisture return over the northern Gulf and into TX. By the end of the week there are some minor differences in global model solutions, but overall the low pressure moves slowly east while the ridging builds in amplitude over the eastern US.
All this results in chilly temps warming slightly through the end of the week and little to no rain. Early in the week we will have lots of sun, but will transition as the week progresses to seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds early in the week will be dominated by the surface high and generally light and variable followed by a shift to light and easterly for the remainder of the period. Of most note may be daytime RHs that may dip into the 40% range early in the week, but should increase as the additional moisture returns increase mid to late week.
NBM values are accepted, especially since there is very little variability in the ensemble members. However, slight downward adjustments to lows were made in cold air drainage areas on Monday and Tuesday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Few isolated SHRA across most terminals this evening, which may bring a brief period of lower VIS/CIGs but will remain mainly isolated with VFR outside of this activity. Main focus for the overnight hours will be low stratus build down overnight mainly for terminals along/east of I-55 to coastal MS and across coastal areas. Introduced some of this working to the surface as a brief window of FG for terminals with greater confidence, revealing reduced flight categories to IFR (perhaps less at times). Will need to monitor how any fog could linger nearby coastal terminals after daybreak, with most inland terminals improving but CIGs will be slow to respond. Expecting isolated shower development again around 15-17Z increasing in coverage thereafter, but will be getting a better idea of timing with greater rain chances Saturday afternoon/evening with subsequent TAF cycle updates. KLG
MARINE
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
A rather rough period of weather is expected over the marine zones through the middle of next week as a series of weather systems impacts the northern Gulf. Initially, a strong cold front will sweep through the waters tomorrow night. In the wake of the front, strong winds of 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts and very rough seas of 6 to 10 feet will develop on Sunday and continue into Monday morning before easing. After a brief period of calmer conditions Monday afternoon into Monday night, another low pressure system developing in the central Gulf will begin to produce higher winds and seas over the waters on Tuesday.
Increasing easterly flow of 15 to 20 knots will combine with a long fetch and increasing swell train to push seas up to nearly 10 feet by Thursday over the outer waters.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 77 44 55 / 20 50 100 40 BTR 62 81 48 56 / 20 40 90 30 ASD 59 78 49 59 / 20 20 90 50 MSY 62 79 52 59 / 20 30 90 50 GPT 60 75 51 61 / 20 20 90 60 PQL 59 79 52 64 / 20 20 90 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBTR BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN, RYAN FIELD,LA | 9 sm | 33 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.98 | |
| KREG LOUISIANA RGNL,LA | 24 sm | 11 min | SSE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 29.99 |
Wind History from BTR
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:06 AM CST 1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:32 AM CST Moonrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 09:14 AM CST 0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM CST Moonset
Fri -- 04:35 PM CST 1.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM CST Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM CST 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:06 AM CST 1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:32 AM CST Moonrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 09:14 AM CST 0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM CST Moonset
Fri -- 04:35 PM CST 1.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM CST Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM CST 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:23 AM CST 0.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:25 AM CST Moonrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 11:14 AM CST 0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:02 PM CST Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 PM CST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:23 AM CST 0.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:25 AM CST Moonrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM CST Sunrise
Fri -- 11:14 AM CST 0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:02 PM CST Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 PM CST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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