Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 2:37 PM   Moonset 2:18 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 338 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with Thunderstorms likely early this morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 338 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a stationary front will eventually move southeastward as a cold front today. Thundertorms along this boundary will bring the threat of locally strong winds, large hail, and higher seas to the waters. Southwesterly winds south of the front will subside and shift out of the northwest in wake of the cold frontal passage this afternoon. High pressure builds in Sunday and remains over the waters through much of next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 181136 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 636 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

NEW AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear, however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday.

The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn't have a major impact on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered, won't depart from the NBM numbers.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end of the work week next week after this morning's rain. Unlikely to be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Convection this morning will lead to brief reductions in VIS/CIG.
MVFR conditions will be possible during this time. This activity will move out from west to east with convection moving out of the GPT area by mid morning or so. Beyond this VFR conditions are anticipated through the rest of today and into tonight. Will need to watch for low stratus/fog developing overnight tonight, especially over the fog favored terminals such as MCB and HUM.
(Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal waters later today or this evening.

Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through much or all of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 84 65 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 89 70 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 86 69 92 69 / 60 0 0 0 MSY 85 73 90 74 / 60 0 0 0 GPT 82 69 90 70 / 80 10 0 0 PQL 84 68 92 67 / 90 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ036-037-039-046>048- 056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sat -- 03:15 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:34 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Long Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:29 AM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:33 AM CDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:07 PM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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