Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 4:48PM Thursday December 5, 2019 11:03 AM CST (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 1:19AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 930 Am Cst Thu Dec 5 2019
Today..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 930 Am Cst Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis..A light southerly wind flow will develop this afternoon and continue through early Friday night in response to a broad surface low tracking eastward along the northern gulf coast. This area of low pressure will move over the marine area on Saturday then shift north over the weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with this pattern with the best coverage occurring Friday afternoon and Friday night. A moderate southerly flow will develop Sunday and continue into early next week ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 051145 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 545 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . VFR conditions through 06.12z. Expect increasing mid to high clouds today and tonight. Winds will be light and variable early this morning then becoming mostly southeast at 4 to 8 knots late this morning through early this evening then less than 5 knots late this evening and overnight. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 457 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/ . Weak upper ridge of high pressure that moved over the lower Plains states this morning will quickly shift east reaching the lower MS river Valley by late this afternoon, then east of the northern Gulf states by 12z Fri in response to a quick moving mid level impulse tracking east southeast from the central and lower Rockies to the lower MS River Valley through 12z Fri. Near the SFC high pressure that settled over the northern Gulf states and forecast area this morning will shift ENE to the Carolina coast through 12z Fri in response to the mid level impulse approaching from the west. With this pattern expect increasing mid to upper high clouds later today and tonight with a mix of lower clouds and isolated showers moving in from the west reaching western sections of the forecast area by early Fri morning. Some patchy fog will also be possible by early Fri morning mostly over the lower half of the forecast area excluding to the immediate coast. Temperatures will be about 2 to 4 degrees above seasonal norms today and tonight with a light to moderate onshore flow developing later today and tonight. Highs today will climb to the middle 60s for most locations in the forecast area. Lows tonight will range from the middle to upper 40s for most inland areas and the lower to middle 50s near the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/ . Forecast models for the short term period have changed little over the past several runs. Surface high pressure that has been drifting east across the area will be off the US southeast Atlantic coast by around 12z Friday, with a mid level shortwave dropping southeast over Arkansas. Associated surface low pressure also drops southeast out of Arkansas and into south Mississippi or southeast Louisiana by the end of the day Friday, and then drifts more slowly southeast out over the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night. Saturday through Saturday night the mid level shortwave weakens and moves east of the area, leaving the surface low to meander over the northern gulf and also weaken. As we have previously been discussing, during the day on Friday a warm front associated with the surface low pressure will likely be making its way inland across our area before moving back offshore Friday night. The southeastern movement of the surface low, and the overall weakening of the system both at the surface and mid levels continues to result in uncertainty with how far northward into the forecast area the warm front may progress on Friday before returning into the marine area Friday night. This is also reflected in continued uncertainty regarding the instability that will be present in the warm sector, with models backing off somewhat. Model MUCAPE values are now generally in the 250 J/kg range or less during the time of peak interest (Friday afternoon into early evening). 0-1 km Helicity values of up to 200 m2/s2 are still indicated to be possible along the warm front and we will continue to monitor trends. Given the sizable uncertainties regarding instability the threat for severe storms appears low. There will be enough instability for some isolated thunderstorms, mostly elevated except near the coast where they may be surface based, and we agree with SPC's assessment for only general thunderstorms at this time. Highest rain chances will be on Friday, but with the low pressure lingering offshore through Saturday night will maintain a slight chance to chance of showers in the forecast for the remainder of the short term period. Daytime high temps in the mid 60s and lower 70s on Friday and then slightly cooler on Saturday ranging from the lower 60s northern interior counties to the upper 60s near the coast. Lows both Friday and Saturday nights mainly in the 50s. /12

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . A positively tilted upper trof over the west coast late sunday takes on a more meridional orientation and amplifies while advancing into the central states Monday and Tuesday. An associated surface cold front will move east across the forecast area late Monday night through Tuesday evening. A line of showers and storms should develop ahead of this front, and mid level dynamics appear to be a bit stronger than the previous frontal passage, so will have to monitor this FROPA for possible severe storms as well. Its still early for this one, but we will continue to assess for this potential. Despite the more favorable conditions, the nocturnal timing of the system (moving into the area before daybreak on Tuesday morning) will contribute to limited instability. Isentropic lift ahead of the approaching system will support slight chance to chance pops on Sunday and Monday then good chance to likely pops follow for Monday night into Tuesday as the front moves through, then drier conditions are expected for Wednesday in the wake of the front. Daytime highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on sunday, in the 70s on Monday as the front approaches, and then back down into the 60s on Tuesday behind the front and even cooler on Wednesday, in the 50s. Lows Sunday and Monday nights in the 50s, then cooler Tuesday night in the wake of the front, primarily in the mid 30s to mid 40s. /12

MARINE . A light southerly wind flow will develop this afternoon and continue through early Fri night in response to a broad surface low tracking eastward along the northern Gulf coast. This area of low pressure will move over the marine area on Sat then shift north over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this pattern with the best coverage occurring Fri afternoon and Fri night. A moderate southerly flow will develop Sun and continue into early next week ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. 32/ee

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi46 min ESE 1 G 2.9 58°F 61°F1022.3 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi34 min 58°F 1022.4 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi46 min 54°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi24 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 66°F1022.4 hPa47°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi79 min 50°F 1022 hPa47°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi34 min Calm 57°F 1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F41°F50%1021.1 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi2.1 hrsNNE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F39°F57%1020.7 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair61°F39°F46%1022.3 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi68 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F36°F38%1021.8 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F46°F58%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNDZ

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW8NW6NW6NW4NW4NW3NW4W3NW3CalmNW3--------------NW4CalmNE6CalmCalm
1 day ago34W7NW6NW5NW3W3NW3W3W3CalmNW3NW3Calm--NW3NW3CalmW3NW3CalmNW6NW9N3
2 days agoNW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:19 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:28 AM CST     0.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:09 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:51 PM CST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:45 PM CST     0.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.60.50.40.40.30.30.30.40.40.50.60.70.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:19 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:41 AM CST     0.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:10 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:27 PM CST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:58 PM CST     0.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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