Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday August 17, 2019 7:51 AM CDT (12:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:02PMMoonset 7:59AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 505 Am Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 505 Am Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will become better established from the western atlantic to the north central gulf through midweek leading to a better southwest wind flow over the marine area later today through midweek. Better coverage of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected, especially Sunday through Monday, as a weak frontal boundary near the coast early today shifts inland and continues to weaken.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 171134 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
634 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... MostlyVFR conditions through 18.12z. Could see a
short period of MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilities in an isolated
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon or early this evening.

Winds will be light and varible early this morning becoming south
to southwest at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon through early this
evening then light and variable later this evening through 18.12z.

32 ee

Prev discussion issued 452 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
near term now through Saturday night ... A weak mid level trof
still stretching from eastern sections of sc and ga to the NE gulf
near apalachicola fl will gradually shift NE through tonight
mostly in response to a passing mid to upper level shortwave
tracking eastward from the central plains states to the mid to
upper ms river valley today and tonight. Near the sfc a weak
frontal boundary still draped near and along the al and nwfl coast
early this morning will slowly shift inland and weaken later
today and tonight as a well defined seabreeze circulation develops
near the immediate coast and begins to slowly shift inland by
midday. South of the front better moisture in the boundary layer
is noted with surface dewpt temps ranging from the middle to upper
70s. With this pattern a big difference in humidity levels will
develop by this afternoon with rh values in the upper 20 to lower
30 percentile range over northern sections of the forecast area
and the lower to middle 60 percentile range near the immediate
coast. Where the better moisture is located expect isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to form especially along and
south of the front early today, generally over the adjacent gulf
waters of al and nwfl mostly west of pensacola, and over coastal
locations of nwfl further east towards fort walton beach and
destin. This is where the best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will form over land later today as the seabreeze
move inland. Latest model soundings show plenty of dry air still
present above 5 kft over coastal areas today with ml capes ranging
from 2500 to 3000 j kg suggesting any thunderstorms that do form
by mid to late afternoon could be briefly strong accompanied with
gusty straightline winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
short periods of very heavy rain. As a result anyone near the
coast or along the beach should stay tuned to local radar trends
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

With good subsidence and less cloud cover still present to the
north throughout the day afternoon temps will climb to the upper
90s to near 100, especially along and east of the i-65 and north
of the i- 10. Further west and along the coast highs will range
from the lower to middle 90s. Lows tonight will trend a little
warmer compared to last night ranging from the middle 70s for most
inland areas and the upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate
coast. 32 ee
short term Sunday through Monday night ... An upper level ridge
of high pressure stretching from southern portions of tx to the
north central gulf of mexico early Sunday morning is forecast to
retrograde westward through Sunday night, while a secondary upper
level ridge axis meanwhile continues to extend from the western
atlantic to the eastern fl peninsula. A weak mid to upper level
flow pattern will prevail across our forecast area between these
features. Despite the weakness aloft, short range model guidance
indicates that the bulk of deeper moisture will remain oriented
from the northern gulf of mexico through the fl big bend and
adjacent southern georgia Sunday afternoon, with another zone of
enhanced moisture over southeast la and portions of southern ms
and far southwest al. A slightly drier and more subsident airmass
may continue to extend across interior portions of our forecast
area through Sunday night. A weak surface trough axis will extend
over interior portions of the forecast area on Sunday afternoon,
which could aid in the development of some convection, but given
the overall pattern, we have opted to reduce pops from the previous
forecast over interior parts of our area for Sunday, with only
20-40% convective coverage now indicated. A better chance of
showers and storms will reside over the southern third of our
region within the zone of higher moisture, and will have chance
pops in the morning increasing to likely (~60%) by Sunday
afternoon. A persistent low level thermal ridge will allow
temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s over inland areas,
while readings in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees are
anticipated near the immediate coast. Maximum heat indices will
range from 100-105 degrees over most of the area, with a few spots
possibly reaching between 105-108.

Convection should become more isolated to scattered in coverage
during the evening hours, with more numerous coverage becoming
focused from near the immediate coast to the offshore waters.

Overnight lows will range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in
the mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A weak inverted low to mid level trough is forecast to develop
from the north central gulf of mexico through the fl big bend and
adjacent southern ga on Monday in the weakness between the pair
of ridges. An associated plume of deeper moisture will return back
into our area Monday and will combine with ample instability to
bring increased coverage of showers and storms to our region. We
will keep likely pops going across much of the area during the
day, before becoming more isolated to scattered in nature Monday
evening into late Monday night. High temperatures may be a couple
of degrees cooler, but still ranging from the lower to mid 90s
inland and in the upper 80s to around 90 near the immediate
coast. 21
long term Tuesday through Friday ... An unsettled weather pattern
will continue through much of next week as a persistent mid level
trough continues to extend over the vicinity of the north central
gulf coast region. Daily precipitable water values will continue
to average between 1.75" and 2" along this feature, and will
combine with the available afternoon instability to produce
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms each day.

Convective coverage will tend to decrease in the evening overnight
hours inland, with higher coverage becoming focused offshore.

High temperatures should continue to range in the lower to mid 90s
inland, and in the upper 80s to around 90 along the immediate
coast. Lows each night will continue to range in the 70s. 21
marine... High pressure near the surface will become better
established from the western atlantic to the north central gulf
through early to mid week leading to a light to moderate west to
southwest wind flow over the marine area later today through
midweek. Seas are expected to build to 2 to 4 feet offshore with
this pattern later today through mon. Winds and seas will be
higher near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
forming mostly along and south of a weakening frontal boundary
that shifts inland later today and tonight. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi51 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 83°F 88°F1014.3 hPa (+1.2)
PPTA1 35 mi51 min 83°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.4)
WBYA1 44 mi51 min 84°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi31 min S 7.8 G 9.7 85°F 87°F1014.2 hPa80°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi66 min 76°F 1014 hPa75°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 46 mi81 min WSW 6 85°F 1013.2 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi81 min Calm

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi1.9 hrsN 04.00 miFog/Mist76°F75°F100%1011.9 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi1.9 hrsN 03.00 miFog/Mist75°F75°F100%1012 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi58 minN 07.00 miFair80°F80°F100%1014 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi55 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F78°F87%1013.7 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi55 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist79°F79°F100%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNDZ

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmN3NW4Calm5N9N10
G15
N9NW9N7N6S7CalmS3S53CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN5Calm3E43S11
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SW53W4CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW4
2 days agoCalmSE3SE4S53S6S83W4NE5NW3N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:20 AM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:32 PM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.50.60.70.70.80.911.11.31.41.51.61.71.71.61.51.41.210.90.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:45 PM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.60.60.70.80.911.11.21.41.51.61.71.71.71.61.41.31.110.80.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.