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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 417 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 417 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis..A generally light east to southeast flow persists through tonight. Winds become light and more variable this weekend through mid- week.

FXUS64 KMOB 231132 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 438 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Upper level flow becomes northerly today as the area is between a trough over the east coast and an upper ridge to the west.
Meanwhile, a northerly low level flow will develop across the area as TS Ophelia moves across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. This will bring very dry air into the area with precipitable water values dropping below 1 inch across eastern portions of the area. The deep layer northerly along with mid/upper subsidence will maintain mostly clear skies with dry conditions through the period. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Humidity levels will also be rather low as dewpoints mix out into 50s during the afternoon hours. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

A combination of a closed upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico and upper level shortwave energy moving east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley into a westward shifting upper level trough over the Southeast is expected to bring moisture back over the forecast area. By Tuesday morning, precipitable h20 levels rise back into the 1.5"-1.7" range over most of the forecast area, with a residual band of lower values stretching southwest over the I-65 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms begin to push east over western portions along with from the south over coastal/open Gulf areas, but the drier band over the I-65 corridor will help to limit inland coverage of convection over the majority of the forecast area in the Short Term.

With the increase in moisture levels, low temperatures will see an increase. Low 60s over northeastern portions of the forecast area to around 70 over southeast Mississippi and the coast Sunday night rise to the mid 60s to low 70s Monday night. High temperatures see little change, ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s, well above seasonal norms.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The mean upper trough over the Southeast shifts west a bit more, then takes a positive tilt. A surface ridge builds southwest along the Appalachians in response to the tilting upper trough, bringing a return of drier northeasterly flow to the Southeast and for the forecast area, mainly northeastern portions of the forecast area. The tilting of the upper trough in combination with the influx of drier air shifts an increase in showers and thunderstorms mid week southeastward, to along and south of the Gulf coast by the end of the week. Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms over the southwestern half of the forecast area, dropping closer to seasonal norms over the northeastern half of the forecast area by the end of the week as cooler, drier air begins to move over the forecast area.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms early next week. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 91 67 92 68 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 20 Pensacola 88 71 89 70 91 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 40 40 Destin 86 73 87 73 90 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 40 50 Evergreen 88 61 92 63 94 65 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 Waynesboro 89 63 93 67 90 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 30 20 20 10 Camden 88 60 90 63 90 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 10 Crestview 88 63 92 63 93 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bay Point
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Sat -- 06:28 AM CDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 PM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Lora Point
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Sat -- 05:41 AM CDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:58 PM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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