Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bagdad, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Where to start as it looks to be a rather busy week in the weather department as a couple systems will bring strong to severe storms, fog and gusty winds to the area throughout the week.

Rest of Today...Scattered showers and light stratiform rain has persisted along coastal Alabama this morning in the wake of last nights storms. Some scattered redevelopment of showers and maybe a storm or two is expected across interior portions of the area this afternoon; however, we have significantly reduced rain chances as overcast skies and subsidence in the wake of the morning storms has kept things mostly in check compared to what was originally expected. Temperatures will likely be held in check in the low to mid 70s by increased cloud cover and any locations where temperatures do increase will likely see those scattered showers this afternoon.

Synopsis...As the subtle shortwave that brought the storms last night and today weakens and lifts off to the northeast, upper level ridging will attempt to nose in from the southwestern Gulf as a rather large upper level low meanders over the Baja Peninsula. This upper low feature will be important later in the week but more on that later. Embedded in the upper flow will be a subtle but present shortwave trough that will quickly progress across the Tennessee Valley on Monday into Monday afternoon.
Moisture will quickly return tonight in advance of this system and surge northward leading to a rather quick recovery. As with any night in early spring with the moisture comes the fog and we once again expect another round of dense fog for much of the area tonight. A subtle surface boundary that is likely left over from this morning storms will lift north tonight towards the highway 84 corridor. As ascent increases ahead of the shortwave trough, scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms should develop along this lifting boundary. If you have read enough of our discussion you probably know what we are about to say next but never trust a warm front in spring. A few storms could be strong to severe during the afternoon on Monday and more details on that threat can be found below. By Monday night the upper shortwave will progress eastward and ridging will quickly build Tuesday into Wednesday as our upper level low starts its trek eastward across Mexico and into central Texas. As the upper low moves east, it will interact with a rather deep upper trough digging out of Canada and into the central US. These two systems will be our big event later in the week and certainly a system to keep an eye on. Upper level lows can be pesky and tend to be a leading cause for aspirin intake for meteorologist as models tend to struggle with how they move.
As a result timing and exactly how the system will pan out on thursday is still a bit up in the air. However, given the overall consensus and setup its likely going to rain sometime wednesday night into Thursday and someone somewhere in the deep south could have a rough night. Good news is that once this system moves through things should dry out and cool off as a cold front moves through the area Thursday and upper troughing sets up over the eastern US through the weekend.

Monday Severe Storms...A rather subtle but possibly sneaky setup for tomorrow afternoon as the aforementioned upper shortwave zips across our area. As mentioned moisture should recover quickly overnight ahead of the upper jet and a subtle boundary should setup along or near the highway 84 corridor. Looking at ensemble soundings across this region and 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of ML CAPE should develop along the boundary in the afternoon with deep layer shear increasing to around 35 to 40 knots. This should be supportive of supercells and supercell clusters that will likely develop across central Mississippi and drop south and east along the highway 84 corridor during the afternoon and early evening.
With storm relative winds (SRW) around 18 to 20 knots in the lowest 1 km, updrafts will likely remain small and favor mini spinnies before clustering up into one or two more dominant right moving supercells and or bowing segment. Weaker SRW, deeper equilibrium levels, and strong cape in the hail growth zone all support the potential for larger hail with any updrafts that form.
Hail will likely be the predominant threat and would not be shocked to see a report or two of golf ball (1.75") to hen egg (2") sized out of the stronger storms. Damaging winds could also be possible especially if the overall mode morphs into a bowing segment or cluster. As for the tornado threat, it will be low but not zero as we have mentioned to never ever trust a boundary.
Surface winds will be a little backed for my liking but with miniature supercells and some weak curvature of the hodograph as we head into the afternoon we may be able to squeak out a tornado.
The main key here will be the need for cell interactions as profiles will be rather moist and with weak storm relative winds the balance required to get a tornado is going to be rather tricky to achieve. IF it would happen it would likely happen earlier in the afternoon before cells become more beefy and too much cell interaction occurs. If storms along the boundary can interact or "nudge" each other then we certainly cannot rule out a tornado or two. By the early evening, storms should move east of our area and begin to weaken as afternoon instability weakens.

Wednesday night Severe Storms...Now for the bigger of the two events as our pesky upper level low begins to move across the eastern US Wednesday night. I'm not going to go into too much detail over this system as there is still a lot to iron out but the overall signal certainly is one that perks the ears up a bit.
Looking at the overall evolution of the system supports a rather stout upper jet and broad area of upper diffluence to spread quickly east across a rather moist airmass Wednesday through Thursday. Ensemble CAPE values support a rather large warm sector across the southeast and a increasing low level jet associated with the upper low. At this range our best tool are the machine learning and analog guidance. Taking a gander at those we certainly see a signal for a period of strong to severe storms Wednesday into Wednesday night with some of the better analogs supporting the potential for a little more potent setup across the deep south. However, as mentioned above with some discrepancies in the placement and timing of the upper low, little changes can mover where the best severe weather potential ends up being. For now we will just keep an eye on this system as we move past Monday. BB-8

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

MVFR ceilings persist this afternoon in the wake of morning showers and storms. A few spots remain near IFR into early afternoon along the immediate coast. A return to IFR ceilings is anticipated after sunset tonight, with LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and visibility returning after midnight for most locations as areas of dense fog settle in. The anticipation is for this to lift by mid morning Monday back to MVFR flight category. Winds remain generally out of the southwest to south near or less than 5 knots through Monday morning. MM/25

MARINE
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow continues through the weekend and into the middle of this week. Dense fog remains possible near the coastline for the next several nights.
Small Craft conditions are likely by Wednesday night into Thursday night. Guidance has begun to highlight a potential for near sustained Gale force winds and frequent Gale force gusts possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as winds turn northerly behind an advancing cold front. A round of strong to possibly severe storms will also accompany the cold front as it moves through the marine zones Wednesday night. Winds will gradually diminish Thursday night into Friday as they turn easterly. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 64 80 66 82 / 20 20 10 0 Pensacola 65 76 67 77 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 64 74 66 75 / 20 10 0 0 Evergreen 61 81 62 84 / 20 60 20 0 Waynesboro 62 80 64 84 / 10 60 10 0 Camden 61 79 63 82 / 10 60 20 10 Crestview 61 81 63 82 / 20 20 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon CDT Monday for GMZ630>636-650-655.