Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bagdad, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A strong upper-level ridge is expected to maintain its hold over the southeast US through Saturday. This ridge, along with high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic, will help to maintain warm and dry conditions through the remainder of the week and into Saturday. The only feature that does attempt to pass near the local area over the next few days is a weakening shortwave that pushes across the Tennessee River Valley on Thursday. At this point, any forcing associated with this shortwave looks to remain to our north and overall deep moisture values continue to remain rather limited, so no rain is anticipated. Highs through Saturday will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Would not be surprised to see one or two inland locations crack the 90 degree mark by late week.
Lows will generally range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. With strong ridging in place, along with light winds and saturated boundary layer conditions, fog development continues to remain likely over the next several nights. Probabilistic guidance suggests that interior counties will have the best potential to see dense fog.

The pattern finally begins to break down by Sunday as a longwave trough pushes eastward across the CONUS. This will allow for a cold front to approach and pass trough the local area. Overall moisture and forcing are rather meager with this frontal passage, however, we may be able to squeeze out a few isolated to widely scattered showers (and possibly a storm) late Saturday night into Sunday as the front passes through. After its passage, high pressure builds in to our north, allowing for drier and slightly cooler air to filter in for the start of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will reach the mid to upper 70s and lows will range from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through the week.
RCMOS probabilistic guidance suggests that we may drop to a low risk by this weekend. /96

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions this evening will likely be followed by IFR to VLIFR conditions in low clouds/fog across much of the area overnight. Conditions quickly improve to VFR Wednesday morning.
Winds become calm or light and variable this evening, then a southerly flow around 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29

MARINE
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday.
/96

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Little to no relief is expected for our ongoing drought situation as mainly dry conditions continue over the next 7 days.
Although afternoon humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds remain below Red Flag criteria, the worsening drought will continue to lead to an elevated fire risk across the area through Saturday.
We will have to monitor conditions closely by Sunday and into early next week after a cold front passes through the area. We could get very close to Red Flag criteria by Monday/Tuesday timeframe as humidity values drop into the low 20% range and winds increase. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 61 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 64 78 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 57 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 55 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 57 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.