Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bagdad, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A few showers have developed over open Gulf waters. Have added to the grids. Otherwise, no updates needed.
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DISCUSSION
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The ridge will continue over the area bringing very hot conditions.
While under the upper ridge, we are under generally pretty weak northerly to northwesterly upper flow. The area also has decent moisture with near/above normal PWATs for this time of year with values of 1.9-2.2" through the end of the week.

With the upper high to the west, this gives less subsidence over the area. A surface high pressure out over the Gulf provides light westerly to northwesterly flow through morning before the seabreeze advances inland through the afternoon and this general surface pattern lasts through most of the week. Isolated to scattered storms are expected each afternoon over much of the area into this week with some isolated storms over marine areas most mornings. Most of the convection will be driven by the sea breeze and any resultant outflow boundaries in the afternoon. We have plenty of moisture and instability, so any showers and thunderstorms that get organized enough will have the potential for strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall and lightning.

The main impact through the period continues to be the heat. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area 11AM-8PM on Monday for heat index values up to 112. The heat headlines will most likely last through mid to late week. Daily high temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s for most inland areas and possibly reaching 100, especially in our southeast Mississippi counties. Afternoon dewpoints will be generally in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. This brings heat indices up to the 105- 112 range with some isolated areas briefly reaching up to 115, especially along the coast as the seabreeze advances inland. There continues be little overnight relief with low temperatures through late week only reaching down to the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water, take breaks in A/C when possible, and monitor for signs of heat illness.

The ridge does start breaking down towards the end of the week and into next weekend allowing the trough to move further down towards the area. This could help break the daily heat advisory pattern with max and min temps decreasing a few degrees and potentially bring more organized convection through the area if any waves can make it down here. This wouldn't be a full pattern change, but some slight relief after the extended heat over the last week.

BEACH FORECAST

The rip current risk will increase to a moderate for Florida beaches Monday through Wednesday. The rip current risk remains low for Alabama beaches. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain generally 1-2 feet through the end of the week.

SS/97

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are forming along several land breezes over the Gulf early this morning, then redevelop inland in the afternoon. Drops in conditions to low end MVFR along with locally strong winds are possible near the stronger storms.
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MARINE
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms.
/16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 96 78 96 77 / 40 10 30 20 Pensacola 95 81 95 81 / 40 10 40 10 Destin 93 83 94 82 / 30 10 30 10 Evergreen 99 77 98 75 / 30 20 30 10 Waynesboro 99 77 100 74 / 40 20 30 20 Camden 98 77 97 73 / 20 20 20 10 Crestview 98 77 98 76 / 50 10 40 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.