Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairhope, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:56PM Thursday September 16, 2021 12:57 PM CDT (17:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:35PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 924 Am Cdt Thu Sep 16 2021
Rest of today..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Widespread showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 924 Am Cdt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis..A moderate southeasterly flow will become a light to moderate southerly flow through Friday. A light southerly flow will then take hold through the weekend and go into early next week. Waves around 3 to 4 feet today will gradually subside to around 1 foot early next week. Shower and storm chances remain likely or higher through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairhope, AL
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location: 30.57, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 161132 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 632 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . A variety of conditions were reported at the TAF sites at issuance, from low-end MVFR at PNS, to high-end MVFR at MOB, to VFR at BFM. Heavy rain is again expected today, especially by the afternoon. Although periodic breaks in rainfall are possible through the day today and tonight, expecting the wet pattern to persist through the period, especially near the coast. Coverage will likely be less further inland by tonight. Overall, lower CIGs this morning will recover somewhat through early this afternoon, but remain mostly at MVFR. The exception will be in the heavy showers/storms where lower CIGs/VIS are anticipated. Winds will be from the south/southeast today and range from 5-10 knots inland to around 10 knots at the coast. Southeast winds will then decrease to be 5 knots or less inland and between 5-10 knots at the coast this evening and overnight. /26

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 404 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/ . The large scale pattern will not change much through the period, it just re- loads!

The synoptic scale deep layer differential divergence is currently shifting east of south central Alabama and the western FL Panhandle. Additional showers with isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped overnight over the Gulf of Mexico and have been moving onshore. This will persist through the day today over the previously rain-soaked areas. Some spots have already received another 1-2 inches (or more). This is in addition to the 10+" of rain yesterday over coastal Alabama and many areas from southeast Mississippi east into the western Florida Panhandle have definitely gotten their share of the advertised 5-10", and in some cases more. The best location for the heaviest rain appears to just about be perfectly situated along and southeast of I-65, but not necessarily north of the Highway 84 Corridor. A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect. Fortunately, through late this afternoon, the highest values of sfc-850 hPa integrated moisture flux convergence remains just southwest of our area and closer to Nicholas' weakening center, which by the way is still creeping eastward less than 4 mph.

So, in all, another upper piece of shortwave energy quickly approaches by late today. Cloudy through the period with highs today ranging from the mid 70s in areas of heavier rainfall ranging to near 80 degrees over interior southeast MS and perhaps Choctaw County AL. Elsewhere, highs will top out in the lower 80s. Lows tonight will then generally be in the lower to mid 70s, with highs on Friday in the lower to mid 80s. Although, a few spots over interior southwest AL and southeast MS may see highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. /23/26

Looking from this evening on, a modest shortwave trof will be located near the Appalachians this evening with a likewise modest upper low having evolved near north central Texas/Oklahoma, and a weak shortwave ridge will be over the north central Gulf coast states between these two features. The weak upper ridge shifts slowly eastward through Friday as the upper low slides into eastern Texas and the shortwave trof over the Appalachians weakens and lifts off to the north. This evolution in turn allows for a series of shortwaves east of the modest upper low to move across the forecast area mainly during the day on Friday. A weak surface low located initially over south central Louisiana, the remnants of Nicholas, weakens further while drifting into northern Louisiana through Friday. Abundant deep layer moisture in place over the area, with precipitable water values near 2.0 inches, increases somewhat through Friday with the exit of the shortwave upper ridge, with precipitable water values trending upwards to around 2.25 inches on Friday. This improving deep layer moisture trend, along with the series of shortwaves set to move across the area will support trending from chance to likely pops tonight to categorical pops on Friday, and the potential for locally heavy rainfall continues. Given that soil conditions are saturated or nearly so, have extended the Flash Flood Watch through Friday across much of southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Additional rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts are expected, especially near the coast. May see some strong storms develop as well mainly due to precipitation loading.

Lastly, the HIGH RISK of rip currents was extended through tonight, with a moderate to follow through the first part of the weekend. /29/26

SHORT TERM /Friday Night Through Saturday Night/ . A modest upper low centered over eastern Texas broadens into an upper level weakness which extends from eastern Texas to the Mississippi/Ohio river confluence. This feature continues to send a series of shortwaves across the forecast area. A light southerly surface flow continues over the forecast area meanwhile, and abundant deep layer moisture remains in place with precipitable water values around 2.2 inches. Will have good chance to likely pops Friday evening for convection lingering from Friday afternoon, then another round of showers and storms is expected to develop (in response to the series of shortwaves) late Friday night into Saturday resulting in categorical pops for the entire area. A combination of locally heavy rainfall from slow moving convection and saturated or nearly saturated soils will maintain a flooding risk through the period. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of southeast Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Some strong storms will be possible as well with precipitation loading as the main initiating mechanism. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through the period. Lows Friday night range from around 70 well inland to the lower/mid 70s at the coast, and lows Saturday night will be similar. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the lower 80s. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . An upper level weakness will be located Sunday from eastern Texas into Missouri and an upper ridge will extend across much of the eastern states. As an upper trof advances from the western states into the Plains, the upper level weakness evolves into a shortwave trof which advances eastward to roughly along the lower/mid Mississippi River valley by Monday night then lifts well off to the north Tuesday into Tuesday night. A series of lesser shortwaves move across the forecast area ahead of this feature until it lifts off to the north and will aid in increasing coverage of convective development each day until that time. The upper ridge over the eastern states meanwhile shifts slowly eastward and becomes oriented generally along the East Coast, and this pattern overall prevents subsidence effects associated with the eastern states upper ridge from affecting the forecast area. A large surface ridge becomes oriented over the southeast states and maintains a light southerly flow over the forecast area through at least Tuesday. An exception to this could develop on Wednesday as a surface low located well to the north (associated with the upper trof advancing across the Plains) meanwhile brings a weakening cold front towards the region which may move into the forecast area. Abundant deep layer moisture remains in place over the area through Monday, with precipitable water values around 2.2 inches, then somewhat "drier" air flows into the area for Tuesday and Wednesday with precipitable water values lowering slightly to 1.8-2.0 inches. Within this moist and convectively favorable environment, along with the series of shortwaves moving across the area, will have likely to categorical pops Sunday and Monday and likely pops on Tuesday. For Wednesday, have gone with good chance to likely pops right now given the uncertainty with the potential weak frontal boundary moving into the area. /29

MARINE . A moderate southeasterly flow will become a light to moderate southerly flow through Friday. Operators of small craft should exercise caution over Southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, as well as over the open Gulf waters at least through this morning. A light southerly flow will then take hold this weekend through early next week. Waves around 3 feet today will gradually subside to around 1 foot early next week. /26

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for ALZ052-059-261>266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ201>206.

MS . Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 10 mi72 min 84°F 1014 hPa77°F
PTOA1 11 mi63 min 84°F 77°F
WBYA1 11 mi63 min 78°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 12 mi57 min SSE 8 82°F 1012.9 hPa
MBPA1 12 mi63 min 82°F 80°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 12 mi63 min SE 4.1 G 8 82°F 80°F1012.3 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 13 mi63 min 82°F 80°F1013.2 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 25 mi57 min SSE 8.9 G 8.9 82°F 1012.8 hPa (+1.2)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi63 min SSE 8 G 8.9 83°F 1012.9 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 36 mi63 min SSE 4.1 G 8 79°F 81°F1013.8 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi47 min SSE 16 G 18 80°F 82°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi63 min 79°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 42 mi63 min S 12 G 14 84°F 1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL12 mi64 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F78°F80%1013.2 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL22 mi61 minS 87.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F75°F77%1012.8 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi82 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast83°F76°F78%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQF

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Tide / Current Tables for Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:03 PM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.21.41.61.81.9221.91.81.71.51.31.10.80.60.40.30.10.10.10.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM CDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:00 PM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.91.11.31.51.71.922.12.12.11.91.81.61.41.10.90.70.50.30.10.10.10.3

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