Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM   Moonset 1:43 PM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 450 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 450 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the end of week and into the weekend as surface high pressure ridges into the southeast states and the gulf of mexico from the western atlantic. Slightly higher winds will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced seas breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 020953 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Dense fog has developed across much of the area again this morning, and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area until 9 AM CDT. Current observations indicate many locations are down to around 1/4 mile visibility or less and Nighttime Microphysics satellite curve shows low clouds and fog covering the southern 2/3 of the forecast area.
There are some high cirrus clouds that are beginning to stream east across the region however, and this could eventually begin to limit fog potential before the Advisory expiration time in some location. Motorists should be prepared for dense fog in some locations on their morning commute. Since near shore marine waters have warmed considerably over the past few weeks, marine fog is not expected to be an issue this morning.

Otherwise, not much change from previous forecast through Friday.
Subtle upper ridging over the area today will shift slightly east of the area through Friday, resulting in a nearly zonal or west-southwest upper flow over the region. A series of weak upper level shortwaves will move east across our area in this flow aloft today through Friday. At the surface, ridging will extend west across the area as surface high pressure remains centered off the southeast Atlantic coast. With this, low level moisture will increase across the forecast area, especially over the western half which will be more on the western periphery of the surface ridge. By Friday, PWATS over our western zones increase to around 1.60 inches. This better moisture (especially over the west)
combined with daytime heating and the weak shortwave support aloft, will result in isolated to scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms as well, over our western zones today and Friday. This afternoon we are only looking at about a 20 percent PoP, but on Friday afternoon PoPs should be a little higher (30 percent or so)
over our far west and northwestern zones. We will probably see at least some fog across the region again tonight, but it appears that there may be more mid and high cloud cover over the area tonight as well, which may act to limit widespread dense fog tonight. We will continue to monitor trends for this.

Daytime temps will continue to range from the mid to upper 80s inland to the low to mid 80s coastal both today and Friday. Lows tonight mainly in the mid 60s inland and upper 60s coastal (with a few lower 70s possible along the immediate coast and barrier islands). DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A series of weak shortwaves is expected to pass overhead through much of the period. As these approach and pass by, winds aloft will generally remain zonal to northwesterly. For this weekend, strong daytime heating, in combination with weak forcing from these shortwaves, should allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop primarily over interior areas during the afternoon and evening hours. Weak shear in place would help to support pulse- type convection, typical of what we see during a general summertime pattern. With that being said, modeled soundings do suggest that there might be some drier air located above the 700mb layer, leading to DCAPE values of around 800-1200 J/kg. Therefore, although the overall severe risk is very low, cannot rule out one or two stronger storms, mainly as a result from outflow and sea breeze collisions, that would be capable of producing gusty winds/small hail.

By Monday, upper ridging begins to build over the Gulf. Although the train of weak shortwaves continue to pass nearby, subsidence from the building ridge should keep rain chances very low through the remainder of the period. As the ridge builds, very warm, summer-like temperatures are expected across the region as we get into the middle of next week. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s through Monday, increasing to the upper 80s to low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. The rip current risk increases to a Moderate Risk on Saturday and remains moderate through early next week. /96

MARINE
Issued at 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Could be some areas of fog over bays, sounds and near shore waters this morning. Otherwise winds will mainly be light onshore through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as surface high pressure continues to ridge into the southeast states and the northern Gulf from the east. Slightly higher winds (up to 15 knots at times) will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced seas breeze circulation. No significant hazardous are expected for small craft through the period. DS/12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 84 68 84 67 85 67 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 Pensacola 81 69 82 69 84 68 84 70 / 0 10 0 10 10 0 10 0 Destin 80 68 81 70 82 69 83 71 / 0 10 0 0 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 88 65 88 65 88 64 89 65 / 10 10 10 20 30 20 10 10 Waynesboro 88 66 84 64 88 64 88 66 / 10 20 30 30 30 10 20 10 Camden 88 65 85 64 86 63 88 65 / 10 10 20 30 30 20 20 10 Crestview 88 64 88 64 88 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 10 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...None.

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Great Point Clear
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Thu -- 02:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:23 AM CDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:00 PM CDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM CDT     Sunset
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Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Thu -- 02:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:20 AM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:03 PM CDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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