Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Fontaine, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:21PM Thursday January 23, 2020 1:32 PM CST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:55AMMoonset 5:20PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 934 Am Cst Thu Jan 23 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers late in the morning, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 934 Am Cst Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong east to southeast wind flow will today will become southerly this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will advance eastward across the gulf coast late tonight into Friday morning, followed by a light to moderate northwest to north flow through the remainder of the week. A light to moderate east to northeast flow is expected early next week as an area of low pressure moves east across the gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Fontaine CDP, AL
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location: 30.57, -88.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 231901 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 101 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday Night/. A broad upper level trough continues to advance eastward across the Plains states early this afternoon, with an increasingly moist southwest flow aloft spreading over our forecast area ahead of this feature. Regional radar imagery shows widespread light to moderate rain showers spreading across southeast MS and adjacent southwest AL this morning in association with a shortwave impulse in the southwest flow aloft. We increased POPs to 90-100% this afternoon into this evening as the large scale ascent spreads over the region. A weak area of surface low pressure over southern LA this afternoon is forecast to advance eastward to near the MS/AL/northwest FL coast this evening. Weak low level warm advection ahead of this approaching feature may allow surface dewpoints to briefly rise to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees near the immediate coast late this afternoon into this evening. The latest short range model guidance continues to show very weak instability near coastal portions of the CWA, mostly less than 300 J/KG, though the higher resolution guidance, including the NAM-12 and RAP do attempt to bring slightly higher MLCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG near immediate coastal portions of northwest FL later this evening. However, guidance is showing a fairly weak low level jet on the order of 20-30 knots now. Given the weak jet dynamics and limited instability, the general risk of thunder through tonight remains appropriate. Patchy fog could develop this evening into late tonight.

Rain chances should taper from west to east late tonight into early Friday morning as a cold front moves across the region. A much drier airmass will spread into the region Friday into Friday night on the base of the larger scale trough axis. Mostly clear skies are anticipated for Friday and Friday night. Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 40s over western portions of our area to the upper 40s to lower 50s across most places roughly along and east of the I-65 corridor. Highs Friday should range in the upper 50s to the lower 60s around the area. Cooler temperatures follow for Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s over the interior and in the lower 40s near the immediate coast. /21

AVIATION. 18Z issuance . Ceilings will continue to lower to MVFR levels across the region this afternoon, with localized IFR ceilings also possible in association with numerous to widespread rain showers that will continue to spread over the area. Localized MVFR to IFR visibility reductions are also possible with some of the heavier rain showers. MVFR to IFR ceilings should prevail this evening and late tonight, before a gradual clearing trend occurs Friday morning following the passage of a cold front. East to southeast winds around 10 knots should prevail this afternoon and evening before transitioning northwesterly from west to east across the region from 09Z-15Z Friday following the frontal passage. /21

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 546 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 12Z issuance . VFR conditions will prevail through mid morning as mid level cloud cover continues to spread over the region. Ceilings are forecast to lower to MVFR levels across much of our area by late morning, with perhaps some localized ceilings down to IFR levels from mid afternoon through the remainder of the forecast in showers and isolated thunderstorms. Precipitation coverage will increase throughout the day, mainly developing west of the Alabama River early this afternoon, and then spreading east across the remainder of the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. Light easterly winds today will becoming a little more southeasterly this evening, with a few higher gusts possible along the coast. /22

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 433 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/ . Surface high pressure will be departing the area to the east during the day on Thursday as a developing storm system over the eastern plains and eastern Texas begins to move toward our area from the west. At the mid and upper levels a developing negatively tilted trough develops over the plains with southwesterly flow over our area, with embedded shortwaves rounding the base of the trough. This will result in the development of surface high pressure over southwest Louisiana early in the day on Thursday, moving to southeastern Louisiana by the end of the day. This relatively weak surface low pressure will be absorbed along a eastward moving cold front that will be extending from a stronger surface low pressure area over Missouri. This front is expected to move east across our area Thursday night. Isentropic lift and weak daytime destabilization will result in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms developing across the region, especially from late morning Thursday, through Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night. Timing for the majority of the precipitation currently appears to be from mid morning to mid afternoon over the western half of our forecast area, and then from mid afternoon until around 3 am or so Thursday night (Friday morning) over the eastern half of the forecast area. With limited instability and weak dynamics, do not anticipate any severe weather with the passage of this system. Highs Thursday expected to be in the low to mid 50s across interior zones and in the upper 50s to lower 60s coastal zones (with the warmest temperatures along the immediate beaches). Lows Thursday night will range from the lower 40s over western and northwestern zones in the wake of the front, but in the upper 40s to lower 50s southeastern zones where onshore flow in advance of the eastward moving frontal boundary will last longer. /12

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/ . The upper level trough with embedded closed low pressure center will move across the eastern conus through the short term, while a 1010mb surface low pressure area over the Ohio River valley lifts northeast. With zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure building into the region in the wake of the cold front, dry conditions will occur across the forecast area through the remainder of the short term. High temperatures will be near normal Friday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High temperatures on Saturday will be a degree or two lower. Low temperatures will mainly be in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday night behind the cold front, and again Saturday night. /22

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . A shortwave trough dives through the Southern Plains during the latter half of the weekend, pushing through the region overnight Sunday into early Monday. Meanwhile, a surface low forms off the TX coast on Sunday morning and steadily moves east across the Gulf on Sunday and Monday (staying well south of our coastal waters). Moisture return will be meager ahead of these features early on Sunday, but rain will eventually slide into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will stay out over the Gulf, closer to the track of the surface low. Temperatures will struggle to reach into the mid to upper 50s Sunday afternoon with 40s overnight, so expect a chilly rain in the afternoon and evening hours.

As the aforementioned features continue to move east early next week, weak upper level ridging moves into the region and we briefly dry out. As we head into the middle part of next week, rain chances re-enter the forecast Wednesday through Friday. That said, confidence is low on the timing and extent of the next round of rain given the spread in physical model and ensemble guidance. Expect temperatures next week to trend slightly above normal for this time of year. 07/mb

MARINE . A moderate to occasionally strong east to southeast wind flow will today will become southerly this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will advance eastward across the Gulf Coast late tonight into Friday morning, followed by a light to moderate northwest to north flow through the remainder of the week. A light to moderate east to northeast flow is expected early next week as an area of low pressure moves east across the gulf. /22

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ655-675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBPA1 3 mi45 min 54°F 51°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 6 mi45 min 61°F 53°F1017.1 hPa
PTOA1 8 mi45 min 54°F 50°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 10 mi51 min 54°F 53°F1016.9 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 11 mi33 min Calm 54°F 1016.6 hPa (-2.7)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 17 mi63 min 56°F 1017 hPa48°F
WBYA1 18 mi45 min 56°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 18 mi63 min NE 7 52°F 1016.3 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 22 mi33 min ENE 14 G 16 52°F 1016 hPa (-2.9)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 23 mi63 min E 15 52°F 1017.3 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi48 min E 8 53°F 1018 hPa51°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi45 min 52°F 1016.1 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 29 mi51 min 53°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 33 mi51 min 52°F 1016.4 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi33 min 54°F 1016.6 hPa (-3.4)
42067 - USM3M02 44 mi33 min ENE 16 G 21 56°F 5 ft1015.2 hPa (-3.1)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi23 min E 19 G 23 62°F 63°F1015.6 hPa60°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 48 mi45 min 53°F 1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi40 minE 68.00 miLight Rain56°F51°F84%1017.1 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi97 minESE 810.00 miLight Rain54°F45°F72%1017.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL14 mi38 minE 7 G 1410.00 miDrizzle54°F46°F77%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFM

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmW4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmE12NE3NE5E5NE4E6NE5E12E19E12E9E10E6E5E5E6
1 day agoN12N10N10N10N9N8N9N8N5N6N10
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NE12NE14E13E10E9NE8NE6NE7NE7E74
2 days agoN15
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Tide / Current Tables for Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama
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Fowl River
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:54 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:47 AM CST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:20 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:35 PM CST     1.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.90.60.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.50.60.811.21.41.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:30 AM CST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:53 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:20 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM CST     2.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-2-2.3-2.5-2.5-2.3-2-1.6-1.1-0.500.61.11.51.92.22.32.42.221.610.4-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.