Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 7:48 AM   Moonset 10:50 PM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 329 Pm Cdt Fri May 10 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Saturday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers. Wednesday - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 329 Pm Cdt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow will become offshore tonight as a weak cold front moves across area waters,then stalls. A light to moderate onshore flow returns to the marine area Sunday into the early part of the coming week as a system approaches the area from the west, bringing light to moderate onshore flow for Monday and Tuesday.

FXUS64 KMOB 102334 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A cold front has been dropping south across the forecast area today, and is now oriented very near the coast or just offshore. The front will continue to drop south and further offshore tonight through Saturday, with surface high pressure building into the region in its wake. Winds are currently mainly light east to southeasterly across most of the area early this evening, but as the front drops further south a more northerly, 5 to 10 knot flow, is expected to develop and persist over the the area later tonight through Saturday. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 403 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A loosely organized line of eastward moving showers and thunderstorms over the marine portions of the forecast area will continue to move south through the afternoon hours. Stratus over land portions of the forecast area will continue to mix out, with mostly sunny skies allowing for good afternoon heating, and temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s over inland areas. A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move over the forecast area behind a southeastward moving cold front currently near I-65.
Temperatures around seasonable norms return for tonight and Saturday. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s well north of Highway 84 to low 60s south of I-10 are expected tonight. Saturday, temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s over Wilcox to Crenshaw Counties, with low 80s over our southern two tiers of counties with a continuation of dry weather conditions. /16

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The short term forecast period will begin dry but will transition to a stormy pattern again by early next week. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Southeastern U.S. on Saturday night as subtle mid/upper level ridging shifts northward over the north central Gulf Coast. Dry and pleasant conditions will persist through Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 80s with continued low humidity.

This brief dry period will abruptly change again as the upper level low pressure currently positioned over the Four Corners region ejects eastward as a positively tilted trough into the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Sunday night. The surface high will shift east off of the Southeast U.S. coast with return southeasterly low level flow gradually advecting deeper moisture and higher dewpoints into the forecast area beginning Sunday night as a surface warm front begins to lift north towards the coast.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop overnight and then become more widespread on Monday as the warm front lifts northeast across the area. We cannot rule out a strong to isolated severe storm by Monday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes along and south of the warm front combined with 40-50kts of mid level flow.

By Monday night, a 100kt upper level jet streak will eject northeast from the Southern Plains into the Mid South as the mid/upper trough axis becomes increasingly negatively tilted.
Large scale ascent will increase as upper level diffluence becomes enhanced and our area becomes positioned beneath the right entrance region of the upper jet streak over the Tennessee Valley and the left exit region of another subtropical jet streak along the Gulf Coast. Although there still are some subtle differences between the ensemble members with respect to the intensity of the mid/upper trough, both the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble clusters suggest the trough should be 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations below the mean heights. Also both model ensemble guidance indicate a strengthening of the lower to mid level flow across the central Gulf Coast. This along with guidance trending towards increasing probabilities of moderate instability and shear combinations, there is increasing potential for severe thunderstorms. It still remains too soon to provide specific details, but we will continue to monitor this closely through the weekend. There may also be an increased threat for flooding early next week with several rounds of storms expected. /JLH

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday behind the departing trough. There will be a brief period of dry weather for mid week as shortwave ridging builds. Another potent trough will approach by the end of next week with another threat for potential strong to severe storms. The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding may also continue to increase as the ground becomes more saturated. /JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A tightening of the pressure gradient between a developing surface low over the Plains and a surface high just off the East Coast will bring Small Craft level winds starting Tuesday night. A significant portion of area waters will see gusts to gale force beginning late Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching front through Thursday afternoon behind the front's passage. There is expected to be a lull to below near the front's passage. Winds will ease Friday into the weekend and become more variable as surface high pressure moves over the area. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 61 83 63 82 66 78 68 84 / 0 0 0 10 30 90 80 70 Pensacola 65 83 66 82 69 79 72 83 / 0 0 0 10 30 80 90 80 Destin 66 82 68 82 71 80 72 81 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 80 90 Evergreen 58 81 58 84 62 79 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 30 80 80 90 Waynesboro 56 81 60 81 61 75 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 50 90 70 70 Camden 55 78 58 82 62 74 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 30 80 80 80 Crestview 58 84 58 84 62 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 20 70 80 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Fowl River
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Fri -- 01:13 AM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:57 PM CDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Fri -- 12:39 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM CDT     2.78 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:14 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:09 PM CDT     -2.86 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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