Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Fontaine, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 4:54PM Thursday November 21, 2019 3:08 PM CST (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:51AMMoonset 2:55PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 926 Am Cst Thu Nov 21 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 926 Am Cst Thu Nov 21 2019
Synopsis..Winds continue to turn more onshore through the day. Marine fog will be a concern for Friday night as onshore flow increases ahead of a cold front approaching the region. A few Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday ahead of the front. Moderate offshore flow develops in the wake of the front by Saturday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Fontaine CDP, AL
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location: 30.57, -88.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 211812 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1212 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

UPDATE. Clouds will continue to slide into the area from the west throughout the day, which will keep high temperatures in the mid to low 70s. Today's forecast is on track with only minor adjustments needed to the dewpoint temperatures this afternoon. 07/mb

AVIATION. 18Z issuance . High clouds continue to stream into the region from the west this morning. Despite the additional cloud cover, VFR conditions persist through this evening at the TAF sites. Some model guidance is keying in on a lower cloud deck developing over the Gulf waters and spreading inland along the coast during the overnight hours. For now, MVFR ceilings were added at the coastal TAF sites during the early morning hours. 07/mb

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 535 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 12Z issuance . VFR conditions will continue today with light easterly winds becoming southeasterly throughout the day. Mid to high clouds will begin to move in from the west by late afternoon into the evening hours. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/ . The mid-level ridge axis will begin the day centered over the middle Tennessee Valley and slowly push east and weaken as a shortwave trough lifts northeast out of the central Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure will slowly drift south and east off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A weak surface trough associated with the shortwave will dive southeast into the Mid-Mississippi valley. This will lead to winds becoming more southerly throughout the day. With southerly flow comes the steady surge of moisture from the Gulf. An increase in moisture throughout the day and very very weak but non- zero potential vorticity advection will lead to increasing cloud coverage from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Despite good insolation during the morning, I kept temperatures only a degree or two above guidance due to the increasing cloud cover and increasing low level moisture making it slightly harder to heat up. Highs will remain in the mid 70s with lower 70s along the coast. Increasing clouds will also lead to slightly warmer lows tomorrow night. Lows will range from near 60 at the coast to 50s inland. BB/03

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/ . An upper low pressure system centered on the lee side of the Colorado Rockies is expected to take an east-northeast track to over over the Midwest/Mid Atlantic region juncture through the Short Term. A weak to moderate cold front associated with this upper system moves over the Plains Friday before crossing the Lower Mississippi River Valley Friday night. Timing of this front crossing the forecast area has become a bit more consistent in the guidance than previous days, with a general 12z Saturday morning to 00z Saturday evening time frame of passage. Friday through Friday night, rain showers are expected to being overspreading the forecast area Friday night from the northwest. A few thunderstorms mixing in with the rain is possible closer to the passing upper low (northwestern-most portions of the forecast area in our case), but am not expecting rumbles for most of the area Friday night due to limited instability. An additional item for the forecast is fog chances Friday night. With water temperatures in near coastal and protected waters in the low to mid 60s, and 70-75 degree air from over the central Gulf flow over this water, a chance of advection sea fog returns to the forecast area. The statistical guidance is indicating the likely-hood of fog developing south of Highway 84, but is conservative in visibilities dropping to 1sm or less. Have put fog in the forecast late Friday evening and thickening, before the approaching rain begins to mix the fog out after midnight Friday night. Am hesitant to put dense wording in at this time. Not to forget temperatures, am expecting enough daytime heating ahead of the expected increasing cloud cover for temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s over the forecast area Friday. Friday night, with the continued southerly flow, continued thickening of the cloud cover and increasing coverage of fog, overnight low temperatures well above seasonal norms and approaching normal high temperatures for the date closer to the coast. Lows in the 60s expected.

Saturday through Saturday night, enough instability is indicated for a few thunderstorms to mix in with the rain showers along and ahead of the front. The precipitation should move southeast of land portions of the forecast area by late Saturday afternoon and the marine portion of the forecast area Saturday evening. Any residual fog will quickly mix out Saturday morning ahead of the approaching rain. With cooler air overspreading the area behind the front during the day, a northwest to southeast gradient of high temperatures is expected Saturday. High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s northwestern portions of the area to mid 70s well southeast of I-65. Temperatures Saturday night are expected to drop into the mid 40s northwest of I-65 to low 50s along the coast. /16

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . Passing shortwave energy maintains a shallow upper trough over the Southeast Sunday through Monday. Combined with cool northerly flow on the front side of approaching low level high pressure, temperatures below seasonal norms are expected through Monday. The Southeast comes under southwesterly upper level flow as the low level high pressure moves east of the forecast area and southerly flow returns, temperatures rise to above seasonal levels. Increasing southerly flow and associated moisture levels will bring a return of rainshowers to the forecast are Tuesday. A weak cold front will move south and stall along the northern Gulf coast Tuesday night through Wednesday, bringing a drop in temperatures to below seasonal norms mid week. /16

MARINE . Easterly winds will eventually become more onshore today as the surface high drifts southeast over the western Atlantic. Increasing onshore flow Friday night will lead to the potential for sea fog as better moisture and warmer temperatures surge north ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas and winds will increase Saturday as the pressure gradient strengthens ahead of the front. A few thunderstorms could be possible ahead and along the front Saturday. Behind the boundary, moderate northwesterly flow will develop Saturday night into Sunday before relaxing Sunday night into Monday. Given the moderate flow ahead and behind the front, a small craft advisory will likely be needed for the weekend. BB/03

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBPA1 3 mi51 min 67°F 61°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 6 mi51 min S 6 G 8.9 76°F 62°F1021 hPa
PTOA1 8 mi51 min 70°F 58°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 10 mi63 min 70°F 61°F1020.9 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 11 mi39 min SSW 4.1 67°F 1020.7 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 17 mi84 min 74°F 1021 hPa60°F
WBYA1 18 mi51 min 60°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 18 mi69 min ENE 5.1 65°F 1020.7 hPa (-1.4)
GBRM6 20 mi129 min 72°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 22 mi69 min E 6 G 6 69°F 1020.6 hPa (-2.0)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 23 mi69 min E 6 64°F 1020.7 hPa (-2.7)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi84 min ESE 8 69°F 1022 hPa58°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi51 min ESE 8.9 G 11 69°F 1020.6 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 29 mi63 min 60°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 33 mi63 min E 6 G 8 67°F 1020.4 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi39 min 69°F 1021.3 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi29 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 71°F 70°F1020.9 hPa60°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 48 mi51 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 61°F1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi16 minVar 510.00 miFair73°F59°F62%1021.1 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi73 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F54°F51%1020.7 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL14 mi14 minESE 710.00 miOvercast70°F57°F64%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFM

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNE3E5E7E8CalmNE6NE4Calm4SE7S7S85
1 day agoSW5SW5SW5SW5SW6W5W4SW6W3CalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW4NW4NE5NE5NE4NE4NE4E43
2 days agoW4CalmW3SW4SW4CalmSW4W5W3W3CalmNW7CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE8SE9SE7W6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama
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Fowl River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:55 AM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:54 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:36 PM CST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:53 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:54 PM CST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.21.31.31.31.31.21.21.110.90.80.70.60.50.50.60.60.70.80.911.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:52 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM CST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:54 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:39 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:53 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM CST     0.69 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.80.50.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-1-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.20.10.30.50.60.70.70.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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