Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Fontaine, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:59PM Friday July 10, 2020 11:04 PM CDT (04:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:54PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 1020 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 10 2020
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1020 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will prevail through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly near the coast through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Fontaine CDP, AL
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location: 30.57, -88.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 110213 CCA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Mobile AL 913 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/. Will see more amplification to the geo-potential height field aloft in the near term with a deep layer ridge expanding to our west while a persistent upper trough moves little from the Appalachians to the southeast US. At the surface, a weak front has slipped across the OH River Valley to the Mid-South. The front continues southward into the day Saturday, settling into the central portions of the forecast area mid-day before stalling. North of the boundary, there continues to be indications in the forecast soundings that the deep layer air-mass will begin drying out. This supports effective mixing out and lowering of dewpoints into the afternoon over the interior while also heating up. High temps on Saturday will be in the mid 90s most areas with a few upper 90s possible. The drier air spreading over the northern zones mitigates heat advisory criteria from not being met there. Southwest and closer to the coast, latest gridded heat index values support maintaining the heat advisory where heat index values lift to a range of 108 to 112. This of course is highly dependent on efficient mixing of drier air to stay north of the advisory. Heat advisory continues for coastal areas and portions of southeast Mississippi. Considering the depth of the drier air over the interior has resulted in chances of showers and storms being shaved back for these areas. Small PoPs now confined to the coast and portions of interior southeast MS. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . Outside of a spotty shra/or a tsra this evening, VFR conditions expected tonight. Winds light and variable to calm. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 357 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/ . A cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved into the area this morning and the left over clouds and outflow from this system has caused a slower warm up than anticipated today. The forecast was updated earlier to lower temps a few degrees and lower rain chances for the remainder of the day. As a result, heat advisory criteria will not be realized across much of the area and the advisory has been cancelled early.

The area will remain between an expanding upper ridge to our west and an upper trough to the east. At the sfc a weak boundary is expected to move into the area on Saturday morning, bringing drier air to portions of the area. Forecast sounding slow plenty of dry mid and upper level air that will mix down due to deep mixing from the hot temps during the late morning and afternoon. High temps on Saturday will be in the mid 90s in most areas with a few upper 90s possible. The drier air moving into the area from the north and east tomorrow will make getting to heat advisory criteria difficult in those areas. Other areas could see heat index values around 108 to 112 depending how far far the drier air makes into the area. In coordination with neighboring offices, we have issued an advisory for coastal areas and portions of southeast Mississippi. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday due to the drier air and increased subsidence. /13

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/ . An upper level ridge axis centered over the Desert Southwest will extend east across the north-central Gulf Coast as an upper trough extends along the East Coast. The eastern portions of the upper ridge will break down by later Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough advances into the Southeast U.S. through Sunday night in northwest flow aloft. The forecast area will remain positioned between the upper ridge to the west and upper troughing over the Southeastern states through early next week.

Dry weather will persist Saturday night across the forecast area. Low level flow will shift back to the southwest late Saturday night into Sunday as surface high pressure shifts southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow higher dewpoints to advect back inland across the region through Sunday. The combination of hot temperatures in the middle 90s along with increasing dewpoints back into the lower and middle 70s should result in widespread heat index values greater than 107 degrees over a large portion of the region. A heat advisory will likely be needed again on Sunday.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will help to initiate a mesoscale convective system in northwest flow aloft over the western Tennessee Valley on Sunday. This MCS should move southeast by late afternoon and evening, likely impacting much of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. The atmosphere ahead of this MCS will be moderately to strongly unstable with sufficiently strong deep layer flow on the order of 25-30 knots. This should allow for the convective complex to remain somewhat organized and persistent, primarily driven by a balanced cold pool. There will be the potential for some severe wind gusts with this convective complex.

The forecast for Monday will be highly dependent upon the Sunday night MCS and mesoscale details. There remains a few possible outcomes. The most probable scenario is that the atmosphere remains rather worked over from the overnight convection that pushes all the way to our coastal waters. Lingering morning clouds and general stabilization behind the overnight MCS will keep conditions mainly dry through Monday morning. The atmosphere may recover by afternoon to support additional storms but this would remain rather uncertain in this scenario.

The alternative scenario is that the MCS weakens to the north and east of the Florida Panhandle late Sunday night and lays out a convective outflow which would become the new focus for convective development across portions of the area, especially coastal counties on Monday. The atmosphere would remain unstable in advance of the outflow and a few storms could approach severe limits with the potential for strong wind gusts from wet microbursts. The mesoscale details remain too uncertain at this time and the forecast for Monday remains more uncertain than preferred at this time. Any daytime convection on Monday should diminish by Monday evening with mainly dry and warm weather expected overnight. /JLH

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . The East Coast U.S. upper trough lifts out to the northeast early next week as the large upper ridge over the Southern Plains builds northeastward. This ridge axis should remain centered to the north with much of the Gulf Coast south of the upper ridge within increasing deep easterly flow. A moist air mass will remain in place with a series of easterly disturbances moving through the flow aloft through the week. This should result in continued higher convective chances through next week, greatest across the southern half of the region and along the coast. Hot and humid conditions will continue through the extended forecast period, only tempered each day by mainly diurnally enhanced convection. /JLH

MARINE . No impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. /13

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ263>266.

FL . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ075-076-078- 079.

GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBPA1 3 mi94 min 84°F 80°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 6 mi46 min W 5.1 G 8 84°F1014.6 hPa
PTOA1 8 mi46 min 85°F 78°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 10 mi64 min SSW 12 85°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.7)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 10 mi46 min 85°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 11 mi124 min SW 5.1 85°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.3)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 17 mi79 min 84°F 1014 hPa80°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 18 mi64 min SW 8.9 85°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.0)
WBYA1 18 mi46 min 87°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 22 mi64 min SW 6 G 8.9 84°F 1014.5 hPa (+0.0)
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 22 mi94 min WSW 11 85°F 1014.2 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 23 mi64 min SW 8.9 -39°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.0)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi79 min WSW 4.1 85°F 1015 hPa80°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi52 min WSW 12 G 13 85°F 1014.6 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 29 mi46 min 83°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 33 mi46 min WSW 8.9 G 11 86°F 1014.7 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi64 min 84°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.0)
42067 - USM3M02 44 mi64 min WSW 7.8 G 12 86°F 1 ft1013.9 hPa (+0.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi144 min 9.7 G 9.7 82°F1014.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 48 mi46 min WNW 1 G 5.1 84°F 87°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair84°F79°F85%1014.6 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi68 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds80°F79°F97%1014.3 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL14 mi69 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F78°F89%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFM

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3SW3W4W546W65NW8NW14
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W345NW7NW63W65W554Calm54SW5SW3
2 days agoSW5W3NW4W3W3CalmW3W3NW3N3CalmNW6E7E6W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama
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Fowl River
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:56 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:41 PM CDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.40.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.90.90.9111.11.21.21.11.110.90.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:24 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM CDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:55 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:06 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:32 PM CDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.40.60.70.80.90.90.80.70.60.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.