Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 2:34 PM   Moonset 2:43 AM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 430 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon - .
Today - South winds around 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. Showers with Thunderstorms likely this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Sunday night - West winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 430 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Moderate to strong southerly winds along with building seas will occur today ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring additional showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.

FXUS64 KMOB 171144 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 644 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the area throughout the morning and afternoon today. Gusty winds and hail will accompany strong to severe storms throughout the day.
Ceilings will drop into the MVFR to IFR range this morning and stay there throughout much of the TAF cycle. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will remain gusty along the coast through early afternoon. 07/mb

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An active and very complicated weather pattern will persist through Saturday afternoon as a couple more shortwaves eject northeast from a very slow moving positive tilt trough moving through the plains. A wake low has developed behind the initial wave of storms overnight, and a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for today for all marine zones. The left over boundary from this convection will lift northward as a warm front throughout the day, and should provide a focus for additional thunderstorm development across our interior areas. The pre- storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday south of a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient MLCAPE values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Deep layer shear values as high as 50-55kts are expected by Friday evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. The tornado threat, while non-zero, will be mitigated due to the weak low level shear values. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk for severe storms for today. Another shortwave and associated MCS is expected to approach the area Friday this evening. These storms could again pose a damaging wind and large hail threat. Additional showers and storms are possible into Saturday as the approaching cold front slowly slips through the area.

The multiple rounds of rain on already saturated grounds will create the risk for flooding through Saturday. WPC had a moderate risk across northwest portions of the area with a slight risk across the remainder of the area. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area through 1PM Saturday. A High risk of rip currents is in effect through Sunday afternoon. /13 /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The area dries out late in the weekend through the middle of next week. Weak ridging aloft builds into the region as a trough remains draped across the western Atlantic. This pattern results in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft developing overhead through early Wednesday. A surface high draped down the East Coast eventually nudges into the region early next week and onshore flow becomes established by Tuesday. A shortwave sliding across the central portion of the CONUS will cause the ridge aloft to briefly flatten toward the Gulf by mid-week. The bulk of the showers and storms associated with this shortwave will likely remain to our north on Wednesday and Thursday, although we can't rule out some isolated storms by Thursday afternoon.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains HIGH on Sunday and eventually falls to MODERATE late on Sunday night. The risk remains MODERATE on Monday. RCMOS probabilities indicate that the risk should fall to a low on Tuesday through Thursday. RCMOS guidance does indicate a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible Tuesday afternoon for the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Moderate to strong southerly winds along with building seas will occur today due to the development of a wake low. An approaching front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the marine area late tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 83 68 82 67 88 66 90 69 / 70 80 80 20 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 83 72 80 70 86 69 88 72 / 70 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 Destin 83 73 80 71 85 71 85 72 / 60 50 80 40 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 68 82 65 87 64 89 64 / 80 80 90 30 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 83 66 84 64 86 63 90 66 / 90 70 70 10 10 0 0 0 Camden 81 67 82 64 85 63 88 64 / 90 70 80 30 20 0 0 0 Crestview 85 69 81 65 88 64 90 64 / 70 60 90 30 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Fri -- 02:43 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:03 AM CDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:35 PM CDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

Mobile Bay Entrance
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Fri -- 12:19 AM CDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:13 AM CDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots

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