Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:01 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 290059 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 759 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 753 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The Tornado Watch across South-Central Texas counties has been cancelled as the focal point for severe weather along with the potential for tornadoes has remained to the east-northeast of the region. A strong cell or two still could be possible over the next hour or two around the highway 77 corridor, but the potential is expected to diminish beyond sunset as inhibition increases with returning of the capping inversion.

UPDATE
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

We'll continue to monitor the convective trends across the coastal plains into this evening where a Tornado Watch remains in effect through 9 PM. However, greatest concern still remain more focused within the FWD and HGX CWAs compared to ours. Fog is a concern for overnight tonight into Monday morning given the lighter winds and ground moisture from the recent rain. The fog could become locally dense, especially across portions of the I-35 corridor, coastal plains, and Hill Country.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Convection continues across south central Texas with a cluster of storms ongoing across Williamson county and severe storms in the coastal plains. Breaks in the cloud cover should bring about destabilization of the atmosphere through this afternoon, especially east of I-35/I-37 as this area has largely not seen much convection yet. Healthy southeast winds in the lower levels and 0-6km shear near 50kts will be enough to get storms rotating. SPC has issued Tornado Watch #158 until 9 PM for our counties east of the I-35/I-37 corridors.

With the loss of daytime heating, we should see a decrease in the coverage of convection and we will remove rain chances after Midnight. Patchy fog development is expected, especially from the Hill Country eastward given recent rains.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The Subtropical Jet will remain active through the long term forecast period, with daily rain and storm chances in the works for South Central Texas. Periods of rain and storms, some possibly producing beneficial to locally heavy rainfall appear possible through next weekend.

On Tuesday afternoon, PWATs will steadily climb from 1-1.25" in the morning to the 1.5"-1.75" range and they aren't expected to drop below that range through the remainder of the long term period. As southwest flow aloft continues, it will send a series of shortwave disturbances through South Central Texas. There will be several notable periods for better storm chances over the region, most notably Wednesday evening and again Friday night as global models want to send a cold front through the region from north to south.
Guidance has been back and forth on whether or not this frontal boundary will even move into the region, so take the forecast for cooler temperatures with a grain of salt as confidence at this distance is still quite low. Ensembles have backed off the idea of a front moving through the CWA at all, so the forecast is increasingly uncertain from Friday morning onward.

WPC has highlighted the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor north of San Antonio, and the Coastal Plains in a Thursday and Friday level 1 of 4 (Marginal Risk) for excessive rainfall. The overall pattern supports this threat, but where exactly any heavier storms set up is tough to pinpoint at this time. For the time being, expect some warm, muggy mornings in the lower 70s, along with afternoons in the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday-Thursday before slightly cooler air arrives Friday and Saturday with the potential front getting picked up in the NBM guidance.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR flight conditions continue this evening with perhaps a nearby shower still possible around KAUS. Expect for flight conditions to deteriorate tonight as fog and low ceilings develop with the light winds and ground moisture from recent rains. IFR flight conditions are likely at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) with perhaps conditions becoming as low as LIFR to VLIFR. Fog could become dense in areas as well into Monday morning. KDRT remains VFR for much of the night but could see a period of MVFR ceilings near or just beyond sunrise for a few hours. The flight conditions improve back to VFR into Monday afternoon with clouds also decreasing in coverage from west to east. Winds will stay generally light at 10 knots or less with variable wind directions at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 69 88 69 86 / 10 0 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 66 86 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 96 74 95 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 87 66 85 / 10 0 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 67 90 69 89 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 88 68 86 / 10 10 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 70 84 / 40 10 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 88 70 86 / 0 0 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 70 90 71 87 / 0 10 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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