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FXUS64 KEWX 111953 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 153 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 152 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Current regional surface observations place a broad anticyclone from the Ohio Valley southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley. High surface pressures linked to the feature extend southwest along the Texas Gulf Coast, helping to keep a very dry/continental air mass in place across the region early this afternoon. Marking the beginning of a trend lasting through the short term period, local surface winds have turned southerly as the low levels begin to respond preferentially to pressure falls analyzed from the Big Bend north into the TX High Plains. Said transition will allow modest moisture returns to commence from as early as tonight through Tuesday night. Returns will be most pronounced Tuesday afternoon/evening as upper height falls begin to overspread the Front Range of the Rockies & Southern Plains. Low level cloud development will be the main result of the increasing moisture locally, though an isolated shower can't be ruled out over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau Tuesday night.

Tonight: Expect another chilly overnight period, though low temperatures will be a touch milder compared to last night with scattered upper level clouds passing over the area. The afternoon update shows most locations bottoming out in the low-mid 40s, with a few readings in the mid-upper 30s possible over Hill Country.

Tuesday: High temperatures in the 60s are likely for most. A few locations in the southern Edwards Plateau may remain in the upper 50s. Some spots in the Coastal Plains could briefly top the 70 degree mark. Clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon hours as dew points creep up into the 40s & 50s across the area. No rainfall is anticipated.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies will persist with modest moisture returns continuing. The vast majority of the region should remain dry, though a light rain shower or patchy drizzle is possible primarily west of US-281. The only mentionable PoPs are currently over Val Verde County, though an area of silent 10% probabilities were inserted over a larger portion of the Rio Grande Plains & southern Edwards Plateau given a broad consensus for light drizzle/shower activity amongst the 12Z HRRR members. Any precip that materializes will be very light, with any appreciable accumulations holding off until the long term period.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

By mid-day on Wednesday a strong upper low is progged to be centered over Arizona with southwesterly flow beginning to strengthen aloft across Texas. This is expected to result in widely scattered shower development across western portions of the CWA where the strongest lift will reside at this point in time. Models continue to be in good agreement through the end of the work week, showing a slow but steady eastward progression of the low into the weekend. By Friday morning the upper low is expected to be centered over north Texas which will bring the strongest forcing through the period and consequently the best precipitation chances for much of the area.
This will be followed by a cold front later in the day which will bring an end to precipitation chances from west to east into Saturday morning.

The widespread cloud cover and rain, followed by the cold front, will trend temperatures downward through Saturday when highs generally in the 50s are forecast across the region. The relatively cool temperatures and limited diurnal heating will greatly limit instability, but the strength of the upper low itself may be enough to help generate a few isolated thunderstorms through this period.
NBM probabilities for 72-hour QPF to reach or exceed an inch by 12z Saturday morning remain largely unchanged from yesterday's forecast, with much of the northern half of CWA in the 50-75% range and gradually decreasing probabilities to the south. While models are generally in good agreement, slight shifts in the track of the low are still possible at this time range which could either help increase or decrease QPF amounts across south-central Texas. The lack of instability along with receptive soils should greatly limit any flooding threat, though some ponding in urban areas and rises on small streams may be possible.

Beyond Saturday, dry conditions with near normal temperatures can be expected.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions will persist through the majority (if not all) of the period at our terminals. Current satellite depicts SKC conditions over the area, though FEW-SCT upper level clouds based near FL250 will push into the region this evening and tonight. Modest low level moisture will begin to return to the area on Tuesday, encouraging cloud development below FL100. Don't currently expect said clouds to translate to any reductions at the I-35 fields, though MVFR is possible by mid-morning at DRT. Have introduced mentions of these reductions in the 18Z DRT TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 64 42 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 39 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 42 70 53 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 64 40 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 43 64 58 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 39 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 41 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 40 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 41 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 44 68 54 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 66 44 70 56 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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