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FXUS64 KEWX 161831 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 131 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Showers and even a few thunderstorms are beginning to increase in coverage across the eastern half of the CWA, especially across the northern Hill Country in advance of a developing MCS. With this MCS, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats, though isolated instances of large hail will be possible with any discrete storms that develop. This activity will continue to increase in coverage and move east across the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area into the evening hours. The current watch is in effect through 22Z, though a local extension in time may be needed if storms look to linger beyond then. South of the watch area, more isolated convection is possible through the evening. While this activity could be severe as well, coverage will likely be limited due to the widespread cloud cover that has been in place all day.

Confidence in the placement of convection, if any, decreases substantially overnight, though isolated storms will remain possible across generally the same areas as this afternoon. Chances for storms look to increase again around and after sunrise tomorrow morning as a second subtle upper level disturbance moves out of northern Mexico, but CAMs keep the majority of this activity south of our CWA border. Any activity that sneaks north of this border could be strong to severe, and therefore a level 1/5 risk is in place across the southern half of our area. As we move into Friday afternoon, a secondary area to watch will be near Val Verde County as isolated storms may develop across west Texas/northern Mexico and push east into the evening. A weak front will have moved south of this area by tomorrow afternoon, which leads to lower confidence in convection developing at all, but if it does it will be high based in nature and carry an isolated hail/wind threat. In the absence of these storms, conditions will be dry and mostly clear for Friday evening/night.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Hot, above average, temperatures prevail over South-Central Texas through this weekend into next week as mid-level ridging across Mexico strengthens. Additionally, majority of the period will include light to moderate south-southeasterly winds off the Gulf with surface high pressure displaced to the east. This yields to higher humidity levels, especially across our southern and eastern most zones. The heat indices, especially into early to middle of next week, will climb into the 103 to 108 degree range for many areas. A drier heat is expected out west along the Rio Grande but afternoon high temperatures will easily climb above 100 degrees across those areas. Rain chances remain minimal through at least early next week. An approaching shortwave out of the west could allow for slight rain/storm chances to re-enter the forecast into the Hill Country next Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An MVFR cloud deck is in place across much of south-central Texas to begin the period, and bases are expected to gradually improve through the afternoon. On the other hand, chances for showers and thunderstorms will also be increasing, especially for AUS, as we get further into the afternoon. Precipitation should push east of the area this evening, though another lower confidence round is possible through the early morning hours Friday. For now, we have not included this in the TAFs. Otherwise, cigs will lower again overnight with some vis reductions possible as well before gradually improving again through the day tomorrow. A weak frontal boundary moving into the area will also result in generally light, and at times, variable winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 66 87 67 92 / 30 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 86 66 92 / 30 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 88 67 94 / 40 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 64 85 64 91 / 20 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 99 71 105 / 10 20 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 85 66 90 / 30 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 68 94 66 97 / 10 10 20 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 87 65 93 / 30 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 84 68 90 / 50 20 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 90 68 94 / 20 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 70 91 69 95 / 20 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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