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Marine Weather and Tides Milton, FL Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:52AM

Sunset 7:55PM

Thursday July 9, 2020 3:13 AM CDT (08:13 UTC)

Moonrise 11:20PM

Moonset 10:03AM

Illumination 85%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton city, FL

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Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL

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FXUS64 KMOB 090454 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/ . A look at the mass fields aloft tonight, a mid to high level ridge axis was positioned from the southwest US/northern MX to across the FL Peninsula with a trof of low pressure at all levels aligned from the Appalachians to off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The weather pattern has been active of late. 09.00Z sounding PWATs over the southeast US (1.9 to 2.1 inches) is 100 to 120% of normal and as a series of mid- level impulses contribute to the overall larger scale ascent as the environment destabilizes more of the same is anticipated Thursday. Going into the day, it appears showers and storms will become more likely (numerous) and focused over the northeast zones along and northeast of a line from Butler AL to Crestview FL. Elsewhere, coverage of storms appears to be more scattered. Storm motion is expected from the northwest to southeast in the mean larger scale flow. There are indications that drier air aloft will support a risk of strong convective down-burst winds. This is favored in much of the high resolution guidance showing DCAPE values in the 1000 to 1200 J/KG range through the course of the afternoon. Will maintain a lingering small chance of showers and storms Thursday night.

Thursday's highs could be slightly higher with the lower storm coverage over the southwest half of the local area. Temperatures will likely climb into the lower 90s along the coast and portions of interior southeast MS. These areas could see heat indices lift to a range of 100 to 105ᵒ. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 further inland where storms will be more likely. Little change in night-time lows Thursday night. Mid 70s interior to 76 to 81 coast. /10

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . Isolated to scattered shra moving southeast over the interior. Along with these, cigs could lower to MVFR categories. Along the coast, cig bases expected to be at high levels with shra in the vcty. Winds light. Another round of convection expected on Thu, with coverage looking to become more numerous over the interior northeast zones along and north of a Butler AL to Crestview FL line. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . A small cluster of convection was tracking east southeast over the coast this evening at 20 to 30 kts. KPNS will see the passage of tsra between 09.00-09.01Z, bringing reduced cigs to MVFR categories and perhaps localized strong wind gusts up to around 30 kts. KMOB and KBFM is behind the convection with residual shra in the forecast in the near term for these two sites. Cigs mostly at high levels. Winds light and variable. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 331 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/ . Scattered to numerous storms have already developed over Southeastern Mississippi and Southwestern Alabama in advance of a subtle shortwave moving over central Mississippi. Storms will continue to quickly march east throughout the afternoon before dissipating sometime this evening as the trough quickly moves out of the area. The rather early start to the storms will likely be a big limiting factor on any severe potential this afternoon. CAPE values are highest west of I-65 and drop off the further east you go. This will 1. likely lead to a weakening trend in the storms as they cross our area and 2. keep any major severe threat over southeastern Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama. Storms should subside later tonight.

Looking at the bigger picture, upper level ridging over New Mexico will begin to strengthen as we go into Thursday leading to northwesterly winds aloft. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored over the Central Gulf leading to light west to southwesterly flow tomorrow. With the northwesterly flow aloft, mid-level drier air will begin to work its way into the area. This will likely lead to potentially more CAPE values and microburst risk; however, dry air entrainment and lack of a true forcing mechanism will likely limit coverage. One potential area of focus will be along what appears to be a weak convergence zone that stretches from about Meridian MS southeast towards the Florida Panhandle. Along this zone will be the best chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures Today will remain steady in the mid to upper 80s except where ongoing storms have cooled temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow will likely see slightly higher temperatures with the lower storm coverage and the presence of the upper ridge. Temperatures will likely climb into the low 90s along the coast with upper 80s further inland where storms will be more likely. BB/03

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/ . Upper level ridging will build over the Southwestern U.S. through the end of this week into the first part of the weekend. As this occurs, an upper trough will dig southeast from the Northern Plains into the Southeast U.S. This will transition the mid and upper level flow from zonal to northwesterly over the Deep South. A series of subtle shortwaves will move through the flow aloft and initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period, with the greatest coverage during peak instability each day. In fact, by the weekend the upper pattern favors the development of upstream mesoscale convective systems over the Middle Mississippi into the western Tennessee Valley/s with enhanced mid level flow aloft. These MCS/s should weaken with southeastward extent but may serve to send mesoscale outflow boundaries into our area where new convective development is expected. These mesoscale details are difficult to predict at these more extended ranges and will ultimately determine where the areas of higher convective coverage will occur.

Models continue to suggest drier mid level air overspreading the very moist low levels with weak deep layer shear. This should serve to increase our wet microburst risk through the short-term forecast period. A few severe wind gusts will be possible both Friday and Saturday afternoon with the most intense storms.

High temperatures should remain seasonably hot with highs reaching the lower 90s, with dewpoints well into the 70s. This will result in heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees each day. Lows will remain in the 70s. /JLH

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . The forecast area will remain positioned between a large upper level ridge to the west and a seasonably deep upper trough along the East Coast. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to favor MCS development to our northwest with outflow boundaries likely serving as convective initiating boundaries to the southeast over our forecast area through Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms can again be expected through the end of the weekend. Temperatures and humidity levels will remain seasonably high.

The upper trough over the eastern states will gradually lift out towards the northeast by early next week as the mid and upper level ridge to our west builds eastward. The Gulf Coast should remain to the south of the ridge axis with the flow becoming northeasterly/easterly. Although pops will lower as compared to early in the forecast period, there should still be lowered heights along the central Gulf Coast and continued chances for mainly diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

Temperatures should increase by early next week with highs ranging from the lower to middle 90s, with lows in the 70s. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints well into the 70s. This may result in heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria of greater than 108 degrees. This potential will be monitored over the next several days. /JLH

MARINE . Moderate westerly winds may result in eventually needing Small Craft Exercise Caution wording mainly over the open Gulf waters Thursday night into Friday and also Sunday night. No other impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near showers and thunderstorms. /29/03

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL	17 mi	56 min	NW 1.9 G 4.1	76°F	87°F		1013.7 hPa
PPTA1	36 mi	44 min		77°F			1014.2 hPa
WBYA1	44 mi	56 min			82°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL	44 mi	89 min		73°F			1014 hPa	73°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy	47 mi	194 min	5.8 G 5.8				1014.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NW4

NW3 G6

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NW6 G9

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SE3 G7

NW2 G5

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NW2 G7

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W7 G12

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SW5 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL	7 mi	18 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	73°F	70°F	90%	1011.9 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL	8 mi	18 min	W 3	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	72°F	70°F	94%	1011.8 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL	13 mi	21 min	WSW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	71°F	88%	1013.4 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL	22 mi	78 min	NW 3	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	76°F	71°F	87%	1013.3 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL	23 mi	78 min	SW 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	74°F	71°F	91%	1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNS

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida

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Gulf Stream Current

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