Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday July 9, 2020 3:13 AM CDT (08:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:20PMMoonset 10:03AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202007091530;;548683 Fzus54 Kmob 090329 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 1026 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 8 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-091530- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1026 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 8 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..West winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1026 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 8 2020
Synopsis..A light to moderate westerly flow will prevail into the weekend. Seas and winds will decrease into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly near the coast through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton city, FL
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location: 30.61, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 090454 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/ . A look at the mass fields aloft tonight, a mid to high level ridge axis was positioned from the southwest US/northern MX to across the FL Peninsula with a trof of low pressure at all levels aligned from the Appalachians to off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The weather pattern has been active of late. 09.00Z sounding PWATs over the southeast US (1.9 to 2.1 inches) is 100 to 120% of normal and as a series of mid- level impulses contribute to the overall larger scale ascent as the environment destabilizes more of the same is anticipated Thursday. Going into the day, it appears showers and storms will become more likely (numerous) and focused over the northeast zones along and northeast of a line from Butler AL to Crestview FL. Elsewhere, coverage of storms appears to be more scattered. Storm motion is expected from the northwest to southeast in the mean larger scale flow. There are indications that drier air aloft will support a risk of strong convective down-burst winds. This is favored in much of the high resolution guidance showing DCAPE values in the 1000 to 1200 J/KG range through the course of the afternoon. Will maintain a lingering small chance of showers and storms Thursday night.

Thursday's highs could be slightly higher with the lower storm coverage over the southwest half of the local area. Temperatures will likely climb into the lower 90s along the coast and portions of interior southeast MS. These areas could see heat indices lift to a range of 100 to 105ᵒ. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 further inland where storms will be more likely. Little change in night-time lows Thursday night. Mid 70s interior to 76 to 81 coast. /10

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . Isolated to scattered shra moving southeast over the interior. Along with these, cigs could lower to MVFR categories. Along the coast, cig bases expected to be at high levels with shra in the vcty. Winds light. Another round of convection expected on Thu, with coverage looking to become more numerous over the interior northeast zones along and north of a Butler AL to Crestview FL line. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . A small cluster of convection was tracking east southeast over the coast this evening at 20 to 30 kts. KPNS will see the passage of tsra between 09.00-09.01Z, bringing reduced cigs to MVFR categories and perhaps localized strong wind gusts up to around 30 kts. KMOB and KBFM is behind the convection with residual shra in the forecast in the near term for these two sites. Cigs mostly at high levels. Winds light and variable. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 331 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/ . Scattered to numerous storms have already developed over Southeastern Mississippi and Southwestern Alabama in advance of a subtle shortwave moving over central Mississippi. Storms will continue to quickly march east throughout the afternoon before dissipating sometime this evening as the trough quickly moves out of the area. The rather early start to the storms will likely be a big limiting factor on any severe potential this afternoon. CAPE values are highest west of I-65 and drop off the further east you go. This will 1. likely lead to a weakening trend in the storms as they cross our area and 2. keep any major severe threat over southeastern Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama. Storms should subside later tonight.

Looking at the bigger picture, upper level ridging over New Mexico will begin to strengthen as we go into Thursday leading to northwesterly winds aloft. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored over the Central Gulf leading to light west to southwesterly flow tomorrow. With the northwesterly flow aloft, mid-level drier air will begin to work its way into the area. This will likely lead to potentially more CAPE values and microburst risk; however, dry air entrainment and lack of a true forcing mechanism will likely limit coverage. One potential area of focus will be along what appears to be a weak convergence zone that stretches from about Meridian MS southeast towards the Florida Panhandle. Along this zone will be the best chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures Today will remain steady in the mid to upper 80s except where ongoing storms have cooled temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow will likely see slightly higher temperatures with the lower storm coverage and the presence of the upper ridge. Temperatures will likely climb into the low 90s along the coast with upper 80s further inland where storms will be more likely. BB/03

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/ . Upper level ridging will build over the Southwestern U.S. through the end of this week into the first part of the weekend. As this occurs, an upper trough will dig southeast from the Northern Plains into the Southeast U.S. This will transition the mid and upper level flow from zonal to northwesterly over the Deep South. A series of subtle shortwaves will move through the flow aloft and initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period, with the greatest coverage during peak instability each day. In fact, by the weekend the upper pattern favors the development of upstream mesoscale convective systems over the Middle Mississippi into the western Tennessee Valley/s with enhanced mid level flow aloft. These MCS/s should weaken with southeastward extent but may serve to send mesoscale outflow boundaries into our area where new convective development is expected. These mesoscale details are difficult to predict at these more extended ranges and will ultimately determine where the areas of higher convective coverage will occur.

Models continue to suggest drier mid level air overspreading the very moist low levels with weak deep layer shear. This should serve to increase our wet microburst risk through the short-term forecast period. A few severe wind gusts will be possible both Friday and Saturday afternoon with the most intense storms.

High temperatures should remain seasonably hot with highs reaching the lower 90s, with dewpoints well into the 70s. This will result in heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees each day. Lows will remain in the 70s. /JLH

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . The forecast area will remain positioned between a large upper level ridge to the west and a seasonably deep upper trough along the East Coast. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to favor MCS development to our northwest with outflow boundaries likely serving as convective initiating boundaries to the southeast over our forecast area through Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms can again be expected through the end of the weekend. Temperatures and humidity levels will remain seasonably high.

The upper trough over the eastern states will gradually lift out towards the northeast by early next week as the mid and upper level ridge to our west builds eastward. The Gulf Coast should remain to the south of the ridge axis with the flow becoming northeasterly/easterly. Although pops will lower as compared to early in the forecast period, there should still be lowered heights along the central Gulf Coast and continued chances for mainly diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

Temperatures should increase by early next week with highs ranging from the lower to middle 90s, with lows in the 70s. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints well into the 70s. This may result in heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria of greater than 108 degrees. This potential will be monitored over the next several days. /JLH

MARINE . Moderate westerly winds may result in eventually needing Small Craft Exercise Caution wording mainly over the open Gulf waters Thursday night into Friday and also Sunday night. No other impacts are forecast except winds and waves higher near showers and thunderstorms. /29/03

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 17 mi56 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 87°F1013.7 hPa
PPTA1 36 mi44 min 77°F 1014.2 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi56 min 82°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 44 mi89 min 73°F 1014 hPa73°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 47 mi194 min 5.8 G 5.8 1014.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL7 mi18 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F70°F90%1011.9 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL8 mi18 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1011.8 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi21 minWSW 310.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1013.4 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL22 mi78 minNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds76°F71°F87%1013.3 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL23 mi78 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNS

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W6NW6NW6NW7NW9NW7NW544S7W5NW7W5W7NW4W7NW7NW5W5CalmNW4W3W3
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2 days agoS6CalmCalmE3E6E63S6SW8NW4SW55S9W10NW6N3CalmW4W3S3CalmSW3W6SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:31 AM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:55 PM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:19 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.60.70.91.11.21.41.51.61.61.61.51.41.210.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:51 PM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.70.91.11.21.41.51.61.61.61.51.41.210.80.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.