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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 357 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southwest with gusts up to 20 knots late. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 1 second. A slight chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 357 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow will shift westerly late tonight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Areas of dense fog are likely across much of coastal alabama through tonight. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow follows behind the front for Sunday through Sunday night with gusts to gale force over the open gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 092233 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 433 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 433 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

A large scale positively tilted mid and upper level trough centered over the Central and Southern Plains will continue to move eastward and sharpen later tonight as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front extends from just southeast of Memphis, TN, southwestward across southeast Arkansas and into northwest Louisiana and southeast Texas as of 3 pm CST. This front will continue to gradually move southeastward through the evening. Ahead of this front, an unseasonably warm and humid airmass is in place with temperatures across our region in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Low level moisture advection and weak isentropic ascent has supported the development of scattered showers this afternoon and this overall pattern should continue through this evening. Temperatures are unlikely to fall much overnight as warm air advection persists ahead of the approaching upper trough.

In addition, with the very moist airmass overspreading relatively cool waters of the near-shore Gulf waters of Alabama, Mobile Bay, and Mississippi Sound, expect dense fog to redevelop over these areas with visibilities below one quarter mile expected again by later this evening. A dense fog advisory remains in effect through tomorrow morning in these locations. This dense fog should again expand across adjacent land portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties by mid to late evening. The dense fog advisory will be expanded inland later this evening in these coastal counties of Alabama. Further east along the coastline of the western Florida Panhandle, areas of fog will likely develop this evening but will likely not be dense. Patchy fog is possible further inland ahead of the front overnight.

At this time, it appears that showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous late this evening across interior southwest Alabama into southeast Mississippi as the upper trough sharpens and moves east in response to another shortwave impulse rounding the base of the trough. The upper trough maintains a positive tilt but will begin to transition to more neutral tilt in response to this shortwave. Overall, wind fields should strengthen late this evening ahead of the trough and surface front, with deep layer shear approaching 50 kts over the northwest portions of the forecast area and spreading eastward through the night. In addition, it appears that low level flow will also reintensify (850mb between 30-35 kts)in response to the shortwave with surface winds potentially backing some over the warm sector. Latest CAM guidance suggests hodographs may elongate over the warm sector with storm relative winds in the lowest 1km increasing to around 25 kts and sufficient curvature in this layer as well with a larger degree of streamwise vorticity ingestion into any available convective updrafts. Above 1km, the hodograph becomes straight- lined therefore it appears that any convection that can develop across the warm sector could be supercellular with the potential for storm splits but still favoring the right mover with increased 0-1km SRH. In addition, latest CAM guidance suggests SBCAPE values increasing to between 1000-1500j/kg ahead of the front.
Therefore there remains a severe weather threat beginning late this evening over northwest portions of the area and spreading across areas along and east of I-65 after midnight. The potential will exist for damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and isolated tornadoes possible.

The strong cold front will progress across the forecast area overnight into Sunday morning. Storms should cluster along the front, but a few semi-discrete supercells will be possible just ahead of the front. The overall severe threat should end as the front moves east of the area by midday Sunday. Behind the front, strong cold air advection should develop under brisk northwest winds. Sunday's high temperature should occur in the morning then gradually fall behind the front through the afternoon hours.
Strong northwest winds will be possible over the marine zones by Sunday afternoon where small craft advisories and a gale warning well offshore will be in place. Rip currents should also remain high through Sunday evening. /JLH

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 433 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Strong surface high pressure will continue to build in from the west Sunday night through Monday, and then shift slightly to the east of our area. Surface ridging however will then continue across the area through much of the week. This will bring a dry northeasterly flow and very cool airmass to our area. Aloft, flow will initially be zonal, but a large upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains States by Friday, allowing upper flow to become more southeasterly across the area. The GFS model is suggesting the possibility of a developing low pressure area over the eastern Gulf Thursday evening or Friday, but there are still some uncertainties with that. Regardless, by the end of the period, atmospheric moisture will be on the increase across our area as surface winds become more easterly, but for now it appears that any increasing rain chances look to hold off until late in the week.

Temperatures will plummet Sunday night, with lows diving into the upper 20s well inland to the mid 30s near the coast. Similar lows are expected Monday night. Gradually moderating overnight temps through the remainder of the period, with lows generally in the 40s by Thursday night. Highs on Monday should only reach the low to mid 50s, and warming slightly on Tuesday into the mid to upper 50s. Slightly warmer, with near normal highs in primarily in the lower 60s Wednesday through Friday. /22

MARINE
Issued at 433 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Areas of dense fog are likely across much of coastal Alabama through tonight, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow follows behind a strong cold front for Sunday through Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 6 AM to 10 PM CST Sunday for all bays, sounds, and Gulf out 20 nautical miles. A Gale Warning is now in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM CST Sunday for the Gulf from 20 to 60 nautical miles. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow follows though Thursday night. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 59 62 34 57 35 59 39 62 / 80 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 66 67 37 56 40 59 44 63 / 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 67 70 39 59 42 61 47 65 / 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 60 65 31 56 30 59 34 62 / 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 55 30 55 30 58 33 60 / 90 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 53 57 29 52 29 56 33 59 / 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 66 67 31 57 30 59 38 63 / 90 90 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>633-650.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.

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Milton
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Sat -- 03:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM CST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:56 PM CST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Lora Point
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Sat -- 03:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM CST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:47 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM CST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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