Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Zachary, LA

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:50PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 5:40 AM CDT (10:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:13AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 440 Am Cdt Tue May 11 2021
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers through the day. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 440 Am Cdt Tue May 11 2021
Synopsis..A front will remain nearly stationary just north of the central gulf coast through tonight. The front will eventually push southward through the waters late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. High pressure builds over the waters on Friday and remains in place through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Zachary, LA
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location: 30.66, -91.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 110946 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 446 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

SHORT TERM.

There were not a lot of changes needed to the forecast as a whole as the overall scenario remains fairly unchanged. Unfortunately, that four letter word will be the main issue for us again today and into tomorrow as well. Rain will once again move into the area by the afternoon hours as a front remains stalled near and to the north of the forecast area and the next shortwave feature moves across the area from west to east.

While some of the storms today and tomorrow could become strong to severe, the main issue will be the possibility of heavy rainfall. Any stronger storms across the area will be capable of strong winds, large hail and even a isolated tornado. That said, given the high PW values expected again across the area and more than adequate forcing, areas of heavy rain are likely to occur beginning in the northern part of the forecast area and slowly pushing southward. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are likely with isolated higher amounts possible. Given the amount of rain the area has had over the last several days, and weeks for that matter, opted not to try to pinpoint the location of the heaviest rainfall and went with a flash flood watch for the entire area from 18Z today through 18Z tomorrow.

By late tomorrow evening, the rain should begin pushing off into the coastal waters and out of the area as the front finally moves through the area and into the coastal waters by Thursday morning. Some lingering rainfall is possible on Thursday but clearing should begin from northwest to southeast as the day progresses.

LONG TERM (Thursday night and beyond).

By Thursday evening, northern stream shortwave should have pushed any significant precipitation offshore, with the possible exception of extreme lower Plaquemines Parish. Shortwave ridging will move into the area Friday and Saturday, before onshore flow returns as the ridge shifts to the east of the area. Weak shortwaves in southwesterly flow could produce a few showers or thunderstorms as early as Sunday afternoon. Areal coverage of thunderstorms is likely to increase Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave moves eastward out of the southern Rockies. Blended solutions are carrying relatively high PoPs for much of the area Monday into Tuesday, and it looks like the 00Z GFS is showing some agreement with this solution. Blended temperature guidance doesn't deviate much from what the 12Z GFS/ECMWF medium range solutions were giving, so making significant adjustments wasn't really considered. 35

AVIATION.

Ceilings have lowered at most terminals by with some reduced visibilities as well. Still some convection well to the northwest near KSHV that has tended to work it's way southeast. At this time, it'd be close to sunrise before getting to KBTR, and not confident it would make it that far, so will not be carrying mention of TSRA in the first 9 hours of the 06Z TAF package, but threat is certainly not zero.

The overnight IFR conditions should improve to MVFR ceilings around 15Z. Question then becomes exactly where/when convection initiates during the day today. Synoptic scale models (GFS, ECMWF) develop most convection north of all of our terminals, and keep it there during the day. Some of the convection allowing models develop TSRA near at least our northern terminals during daytime heating. For now, will carry VCTS beginning at 15Z and continue through the day for each terminal, but this may need to be trimmed back in later forecasts, particularly at KHUM and the New Orleans terminals. Ceilings again could drop into the IFR range beyond 00Z Wednesday.

MARINE.

Outside of the convective risk for isolated strong wind events from thunderstorms, the pattern over the coastal waters will be fairly benign through Wednesday. However, winds could increase into exercise caution range in the wake of a passing cold front Wednesday night through Friday night. Conditions should improve by Saturday as high pressure shifts over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 82 66 73 57 / 80 80 90 40 BTR 86 68 76 61 / 70 80 90 40 ASD 85 68 78 62 / 70 60 90 50 MSY 87 73 80 67 / 50 60 90 50 GPT 82 69 79 62 / 60 60 90 50 PQL 82 68 79 61 / 60 50 90 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>061-063>072- 075>078.

GM . Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ530.

MS . Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 71 mi52 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 75°F 77°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for East Bank 1, Norco, B. LaBranche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA8 mi47 minN 85.00 miFog/Mist73°F71°F94%1015.6 hPa
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA17 mi65 minNNE 1010.00 miLight Rain70°F69°F99%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTR

Wind History from BTR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4----------E8SE4E3S4SE3CalmN5NE5NE3E3SE6E4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmN8
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2 days agoCalmCalm3SE6SE6S6S8S8S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:46 AM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM CDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:01 PM CDT     New Moon
Tue -- 02:25 PM CDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.20.40.81.11.41.61.71.61.51.41.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.210.80.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
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Tue -- 12:30 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM CDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:01 PM CDT     New Moon
Tue -- 02:09 PM CDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:22 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.40.711.21.41.51.51.51.41.31.21.21.21.21.21.21.210.80.50.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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