Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:40 AM   Moonset 12:12 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KFWD 010713 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 213 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Morning/

Storms are currently straddling the Red River as an outflow boundary pushes south into North Texas. While this will greatly limit the severe weather potential, a few storms could be strong to marginally severe. The main concerns would be hail and gusty winds, though any opportunity for this will be brief. That is due to the aforementioned boundary that is undercutting their warm inflow, limiting their severe potential. These should weaken over the next few hours before dissipating entirely before sunrise.

Our attention then turns to our next round of showers and thunderstorms that will start Wednesday afternoon and evening through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. This will be our best opportunity for scattered to more widespread severe weather as the latest hi-res guidance continues to reveal convective activity developing, then rapidly growing upscale into an MCS as it moves into our area. Our local storm environment will be conducive for severe weather in the form of large hail and damaging winds. Favorable deep layer shear, steep lapse rates, and instability will all be available for storms to work with as they develop and evolve. There is also low-end potential for tornadogenesis while storms remain more discrete and this potential will continue to exist should they develop into an organized linear structure through the overnight hours. That all being said, be sure to play close attention to the forecast through tomorrow afternoon and evening into Thursday.

In addition to our severe weather potential is our flash flooding concerns for locations mainly along and south of I-20 where already saturated soils exist. Several waves of convective activity Wednesday into Thursday afternoon could reaggravate recent flooding issues. The latest 6-hour precipitation probabilities courtesy of the HRRR show a medium chance (30-50%)
of greater than 3 inches of rainfall for most of Central Texas.
This can be used as a proxy for gauging flooding concerns, and confidence is increasing due to run to run consistency. Moreover, about 10% of the area could receive upwards of 5 inches of rain in a 6-hour span. The overall environment will be supportive of flash flooding on top of our antecedent conditions. Because of this,a Flood Watch is now being considered across this area through Thursday afternoon and will likely be issued before the morning update.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/Issued 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ /Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Bottom Line: An unsettled weather pattern will lead to periodic chances for thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible at times, potentially leading to additional flooding concerns.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop off a sharpening dryline across West Texas late Wednesday afternoon and gradually progress east toward North and Central Texas late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Ascent associated with a passing shortwave and rich moisture transport on the nose of a 25-35 kt low-level jet will likely sustain this convection as it enters our area and may lead to additional thunderstorm development ahead of the primary cluster of thunderstorms during the overnight hours.
Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s and PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range (approaching climatological maxima) will support heavy rainfall as this activity increases in coverage Wednesday night. 20-30 kt storm motions should be progressive enough to keep a more widespread flood event from occurring. However, if there are continuous signals for back-building and/or training thunderstorms in the newer high-resolution guidance, the threat for localized flash flooding may increase rapidly, especially with region-wide saturated soils from the recent rainfall. As of now, a widespread 0.5"-1.5" seems likely with a 10-20% chance for 3+" through Thursday morning, primarily along/south of I-20 and along/east of I-35. 20-30kts of effective bulk shear will keep the threat for widespread severe weather on the low end, but 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support at least a marginal threat for severe hail in a few of the stronger cells.

Most of this activity will push into East Texas by late Thursday morning leading to a relative lull in thunderstorm activity for much of Thursday. Additional chances for thunderstorms will arrive late Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. The spatial coverage of convection late Thursday into Friday will depend on the southern extent of the frontal passage.
A majority of medium-range guidance keeps the frontal boundary near the Red River, subsequently keeping the better rain chances along/north of I-20. Another round of showers and thunderstorms seems possible over the weekend, with guidance highlighting the potential for a more potent shortwave entering the Southern Plains in the Saturday-Sunday timeframe. There are still timing and location discrepancies, so keep an eye on the forecast through the week!

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR Ceilings Through Wednesday Afternoon.

VFR conditions currently prevail across all TAF sites but ceilings will begin to fall as we move through the morning hours on Wednesday. MVFR will creep northward as another stratus intrusion takes over North and Central Texas. These will reach Waco around 08-09z before making it to the D10 terminals around 11-12z this morning. There is a low chance (20-30%) for intermittent IFR ceilings through the morning across the D10, with better chances for IFR across Waco. Our other concern is the outflow boundary that is currently moving south toward the D10 terminals from the storms along the Red River. While this is not currently expected to impact the TAF sites, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary could increase the likelihood in brief northerly winds within the next several hours.

Ceilings will improve through the afternoon hours, though conditions will be worth watching as convective activity increases through tomorrow evening. Details will be further refined regarding this thunderstorm potential in future TAF issuances.

Reeves


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 67 81 69 81 / 20 70 80 50 30 Waco 83 67 80 69 80 / 30 70 70 40 30 Paris 84 66 77 66 81 / 20 60 80 70 40 Denton 83 66 80 67 81 / 20 70 70 50 30 McKinney 83 67 79 67 81 / 20 70 80 50 30 Dallas 85 67 81 69 83 / 20 80 80 50 30 Terrell 84 67 78 67 81 / 20 80 90 50 30 Corsicana 85 68 80 69 82 / 20 80 80 40 30 Temple 82 67 80 69 82 / 40 60 60 30 20 Mineral Wells 82 67 83 66 82 / 20 70 60 40 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Central Texas,