Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rockdale, TX

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:28PM Saturday February 27, 2021 3:58 AM CST (09:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:02PMMoonset 7:27AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rockdale, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 270940 AAA AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 340 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

. New Long Term .

SHORT TERM. /Issued 121 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/ /Today and Tonight/

A dreary Saturday is anticipated across much of North and Central Texas. Despite the widespread cloud cover, the passage of a warm front will spell warmer conditions (compared to yesterday) with daytime high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. As this warm front lifts northward through the pre-dawn hours, there will be an increasing potential for both showers/isolated storms and widespread mist/fog.

Advection fog should begin to develop in the next 1-3 hours and persist into the early afternoon hours along the warm front. Hi- resolution guidance has decreased the coverage of dense fog (visibility less than 1/4 mile) and I'll hold off on any advisories/headlines for now. One may be needed, however, at some point this morning depending on trends.

Convection should get going as low level temperature advection commences. The highest PoPs are confined to areas east of I-35 and north of I-20 along the nose of the 850 thermal ridge axis around mid-morning. The thunderstorm potential will be very isolated and generally greatest east of the I-35 corridor. Short term guidance has offered mixed signals regarding the degree of instability, with some models advertising up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and deep layer shear of greater than 50 knots. At present time, these more extreme solutions are largely discounted from the latest forecast, but I will expand the mention of isolated storms from the previous public package issuance. The severe weather threat should be hampered by the lack of more robust instability, but some of the stronger storm cores could produce small hail. If the greater instability model solutions verify, however, I wouldn't rule out a marginally severe storm or two, mainly east of I-35. The potential for storms should diminish as the lift associated with the front shifts northward. Remnant lift may be sufficient for some pockets of afternoon drizzle but I'd like to see how this morning materializes before making any new additions to the weather grids.

Tonight, we'll monitor the potential for another round of advection fog ahead of an approaching front where low level moisture convergence will be enhanced. I will advertise low PoPs along the cold front Sunday morning with a low risk for thunderstorms across extreme East Texas. Bain

LONG TERM. /NEW/ /Sunday Onward/

By Sunday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across portions of Northeast Texas as a cold front knocks on the doorstep of our northwestern counties. Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the front, characterized by dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s, while our region remains beneath strong southwesterly flow. As the front moves across North Texas Sunday morning, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary. Any activity should stay below severe limits, but a strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. The potential for severe thunderstorms is greater across portions of Central Texas Sunday afternoon and evening as surface instability increases through the day. However, a weak inversion near 700 mb and lack of strong upper level forcing Sunday afternoon may limit the severe potential. If a severe thunderstorm were to develop, the main threats would be hail and damaging winds.

The front should exit the region by Sunday evening, but showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will continue across North and Central Texas Sunday night as an upper level low approaches the region. There are still some discrepancies with this system among guidance . the latest GFS indicates an open trough and faster progression, while the ECMWF and NAM are in agreement on a slower eastward progression. We'll continue to trend toward the slower solution, resulting in precipitation chances associated with this system continuing through Tuesday. While most of North and Central Texas will receive measurable rainfall, the higher accumulations are forecast generally south of I-20 and east of I-35.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Monday in wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the upper 40s across the Big Country to mid 50s elsewhere. Showers will likely continue through Monday night before gradually ending from west to east on Tuesday as the upper low departs. Cloud cover should also gradually decrease from west to east, with partly sunny skies returning by Tuesday afternoon. Ridging aloft will result in a lull in precipitation and warming trend across the region.

An upper level trough/low, which should be located over the southwestern US late Wednesday night, will begin to approach the region. The timing of this system varies greatly among long range guidance, so for now opted to keep low precipitation chances on Thursday and Friday until there is better agreement.

Garcia

AVIATION. /Issued 121 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/ /06 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Ceiling/visibility trends. Low convective potential.

While MVFR stratus currently inundates just the Waco TAF site, I anticipate that as winds just above the surface become more southerly, MVFR will invade D10 TAFs. At present time, it's most probable over the next 2-4 hours though some adjustments may be needed. IFR is expected at Waco around 0900 UTC with cigs below 1000 feet more probable toward daybreak at D10 TAFs. Gradual lift along a northward moving warm front will translate to the an increasing threat for isolated SHRA, IFR vsby, and LIFR cigs. The FG potential at the Metroplex has decreased some and I'll advertise intermittent vsby restrictions around 1 SM though confidence still remains high in the occurrence of LIFR cigs. At Waco, low level moisture is a tad richer and periods of FG seem like a good bet. I cannot rule out a stray TS embedded within SHRA, but at this juncture the potential looks best across East Texas and thus there is still a potential for impacts to eastbound departures as well as traffic arriving along the Bonham and Cedar Creek cornerposts.

Poor flying conditions will likely remain through the afternoon hours with a small window of VFR as a wedge of slightly drier air arrives along the I-35 corridor. In the grand scheme of things, I anticipate this to be a relatively short occurrence as MVFR and IFR cigs return late Saturday night into Sunday. There is a non- zero chance for additional BR ahead of a front for the 24-30 hour portion of the D/FW TAF, but we'll have a closer look at that in future TAF issuances.

Bain

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 61 65 43 55 / 50 20 70 40 60 Waco 74 63 72 48 53 / 40 10 80 60 80 Paris 65 59 65 43 54 / 70 40 80 40 50 Denton 68 59 63 41 55 / 50 20 60 30 60 McKinney 68 61 64 43 55 / 60 30 70 30 60 Dallas 71 63 68 45 56 / 50 20 80 40 60 Terrell 71 63 68 46 54 / 60 20 90 50 70 Corsicana 74 64 71 49 55 / 50 10 90 70 80 Temple 75 64 72 47 53 / 30 10 70 70 80 Mineral Wells 70 56 62 41 53 / 30 20 50 30 60

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caldwell, Caldwell Municipal Airport, TX19 mi64 minNNE 44.00 miFog/Mist58°F56°F94%1013.2 hPa
Hearne, Hearne Municipal Airport, TX24 mi64 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist59°F56°F92%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRWV

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Last 24hrN6CalmNW5NW5NW6N6NW3N6N5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmN4N5N7N4CalmCalmSE4CalmN4N4
1 day agoN7N6N8NE5NE6NE7N5N6N6N5N7N5N4N4N5N8N6N7NE3NW10NW8NW7NW9NW9
2 days agoS11S9S6S7S11SW13
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