Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockdale, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

It's a quiet night across North and Central Texas with current temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s/60s. Southerly winds will continue to bring increasing low level Gulf moisture today, with PWATs gradually rising towards the 1.25 inch mark.
With daytime heating and temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s, another round of widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across Central Texas and spread northward into parts of North Texas. No severe storms are expected today, but MLCAPE peaking between 500-1000 J/Kg along with ample dry air throughout the troposphere could lead to some stronger storms with gusty winds. This activity will be strongly diurnal and should dissipate quickly this evening with loss of daytime heating. Although an isolated shower can't be ruled out overnight tonight, most areas will remain dry and mild with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The long awaited active weather regime gets underway tomorrow as a large deep trough develops across the western US and a stout upper ridge takes shape near Florida, leading to fast southwesterly flow aloft between the two over our region. This pattern will bring us daily and nightly rain and thunderstorm chances for at least the next week, and possibly longer as 00Z guidance does not show much in the way of a pattern shift in the long range. Steadily increasing moisture in the low levels from the Gulf and dry air aloft spreading in from the Mexican Plateau with lead to moderate and occasionally strong instability at times, mainly in the afternoons/evenings, while deep layer shear also looks to increase into the 30-50 kt range. All of this suggests some storms each day next week could be strong or potentially severe with the most likely day for severe storms expected on Sunday.

The first round of storms is expected to develop across far west Texas on Saturday, then spread eastward into North and Central Texas during the overnight hours on Saturday night. Some of this activity could be strong, but will likely weaken as it moves into lower CAPE and shear across our area. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Sunday into Sunday night as a 55 kt jet max ejects out of northern Mexico across the state. As this wave moves overhead, GFS forecast soundings show wind fields will markedly increase during the morning into the afternoon with low level shear up to 30 knots and 0-8 km shear up to 60 kts. With MLCAPE forecast to rise up to 2500 J/kg by Sunday afternoon, the CAPE/shear combo will provide a notable severe storm threat across North and Central Texas with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all possible. Activity is expected to gradually diminish Sunday night as the upper wave exits the region to the northeast.

Monday looks to have a bit of a lull in activity on the 00Z guidance suite as our area sees weak upper ridging between Sunday's shortwave and the next stronger wave on Tuesday/Wednesday. Even so, isolated to widely scattered showers and some potentially strong to severe storms are still possible given weak capping, strong instability and ample shear. The forecast becomes more uncertain from Tuesday/Wednesday onward as the 00Z GFS is about one day faster than the 00Z ECMWF ejecting a 60+ kt H5 jet northeastward into the Plains. Depending on which model ends up correct, a more synoptically evident round of strong to severe dryline storms could occur on one of these days given the ample CAPE/shear. For the remainder of the week, models greatly disagree on dryline placement, a potential cold front coming in from the north, and mesoscale features that will greatly impact our forecast. Overall, however, lower pops appear warranted with continued warm and humid conditions each day.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Morning stratus has come in much more broken than prior model guidance suggested. As such, will keep MVFR TEMPO at TAF sites through 16Z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon between 17Z and 01Z, but probabilities (20-40%)
are too low to warrant VCTS in TAFs at this time. Will keep VCSH in for now during this time frame, but this may be dropped in subsequent amendments. Lastly, MVFR cigs should build back in from the south again tomorrow night after 10Z Saturday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested on Sunday for potential severe storms. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 64 83 67 / 20 10 30 60 Waco 80 64 82 67 / 40 20 40 40 Paris 80 60 82 64 / 10 10 10 20 Denton 80 62 81 64 / 20 10 20 70 McKinney 80 62 81 65 / 20 10 20 50 Dallas 83 65 83 67 / 20 10 30 50 Terrell 81 62 82 65 / 20 10 20 30 Corsicana 83 65 84 68 / 30 10 30 20 Temple 81 64 82 67 / 40 20 40 50 Mineral Wells 80 61 81 63 / 30 10 50 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.