Rockdale, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockdale, TX

April 15, 2024 11:03 AM CDT (16:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:00 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM
Moonrise 11:38 AM   Moonset 1:33 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rockdale, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 151036 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 536 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Complex forecast and have no confidence for any wholesale changes from the thinking below. Time will tell to see how the elevated mixed layer/EML (cap aloft) plays a role in coverage and severity.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /Early Week Period/

The evolution of the approaching system later today and through Tuesday has changed very little, as strong mid level height falls associated with a lead shortwave lifting northeast from West TX and the South Plains toward Northwest TX, the Big Country, and into Southwest OK helps to gradually lift and weaken the existing EML (capping inversion) over the surface dryline west of the area. Isolated, strong to marginally severe semi-elevated storms may impact our Big Country areas west of US-281 later this afternoon. After the morning surge of stratus, this area will see little if any stratus this morning and if they were to see some, it would be only a few hours before seeing partial sunshine and strong afternoon heating well into the 80s for an increase in ML/MUCAPE, but also mid level lapse rates steepening to between 7-8 deg C/km with impressive CAPE within the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 degC) during the first few hours of their life cycle which would strongly suggest at minimum some large to very large hail across our far northwest counties. If the NSSL WRF/3km NAM were to be believed, it would be a bit more multicellular or more messy environment due to the increasing large scale ascent and strong low level WAA ongoing just above the surface and near the bottom layer of the cap (which the 00z FWD sounding has shown to strengthen in the past 24-36 hours). The HRRR is the one model that does show more discrete, isolated coverage and considering the EML strength, I may be inclined to lean toward that solution.
Either way, the kinematic environment of 50 kt+ SW effective deep layer shear and impressive southerly 15-20 kt 0-1 km shear would insinuate storm maintenance and a hail and wind threat. If storms, even briefly, were to become completely rooted at the surface, then a tornado would be possible, but elevated versus non-elevated mode is where confidence gets murky due to the uncertainty of the EML completely eroding. As discrete storms over the South Plains/Big Country migrate ENE/NE toward the Red River Valley and western North TX through nightfall, they will encounter increasing low level WAA in conjunction with an impressive 55-65 kt (possibly as strong as 70 kts) LLJ developing across this region.
This and point forecast sounding hodographs would suggest storm mode evolving more into a linear, or even possibly a LEWP (line echo wave pattern) segment containing both large hail and damaging winds as storms move from our northern Big Country area, ENE toward I-35 and primarily along and north of the Hwy 380 corridor to the Red River Valley.

As they do move further east after nightfall and toward/past the I-35 corridor mid to late this coming evening, it's likely they'll begin to encounter increasing CINH and weakening 925mb-850mb southerly flow. This would likely signal a weakening trend with time and likely storms becoming just sub-severe as they move into eastern North TX after midnight. With gusty southerly winds 15 to 30 mph likely continuing through daybreak Tuesday along with more late night/morning stratus, low temperatures Tuesday morning will remain well up into the 60s. Despite a brief lull in weather after midnight, the threat for storms doesn't end just yet. The exiting of the main mid level disturbance eastward out over the Central/Southern Plains just before 12z Tuesday will support a Pacific cold front arriving into the far western counties. Additional, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along the feature initially along and just west of I-35 post daybreak, before progressively moving east along and ahead of the front into Central and East TX by/after midday Tuesday. Again, these storms may remain potentially elevated as the best large-scale ascent remains removed to the north over Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Nevertheless, strong storms with hail and very gusty winds would remain in play. Another item to mention is that progressive and scattered nature of activity will limit any heavy rainfall or flooding throughout the entirety of this event associated with this system/event. Little in the way of low level cold advection is anticipated behind the front as it progresses into E/SE Texas and Western Louisiana later Tuesday afternoon.
Instead, veering surface and low level wind fields, increasing mid-April insolation, and much drier air will help to warm temperatures well into the mid-upper 80s. A sign that as we continue progressing through mid-Spring, that the likelihood of dramatic temperature falls is waning by the day.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 323 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ /Wednesday Onward/

A brief warmer and rain-free period will encompass the middle of the week following the eastward departure of the early week storm system. Highs on Wednesday afternoon will be able to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s, while low-level moisture content quickly climbs back northward. A subtle disturbance transiting zonal flow aloft will result in strengthened low-level warm advection, and this should allow for some shower and thunderstorm activity heading into Thursday. This will be particularly true later in the day as a surface frontal boundary digs southward into the Southern Plains before eventually stalling through portions of North Texas through the end of the week. The parameter space ahead of this boundary will consist of very strong instability due to pooled low-level moisture along it, and some isolated severe storm activity is possible Thursday afternoon when aided further by diurnal destabilization.

The stalled frontal zone will acquire a renewed southward push heading into the upcoming weekend as a stronger mid-level disturbance digs into the area from the northwest. This will simultaneously drive the front southward into Southeast Texas, while simultaneously establishing a strong isentropic lift regime atop the frontal surface. An episode of widespread elevated convection should be the result, some of which may be rather robust with a hail threat given strong MUCAPE in place. However, the main issue over the upcoming weekend could be additional heavy rainfall and flooding, as this type of setup with a stalled or slow-moving frontal zone could be conducive for training deep convection in a west-to-east fashion somewhere across the eastern half of the state. Any finer details in this regard won't be known for at least a few more days. Our temperatures during this time period will be below normal as we spend a few days within the cool sector, so highs in the 60s and lower 70s seem likely through most of next weekend.

-Stalley

AVIATION
/NEW/ Update: /12z TAFs/

About the only change from the 06z discussion below was to move up both the windows for VCSH and VCTS per latest CAMs, development of a very strong 60 kt+ LLJ after nightfall, and uncertainty with the approach of the Pacific FROPA towards or just after 12z Tuesday. Otherwise, cig and wind trends remain relatively the same regarding stratus today into tonight. Mainly MVFR.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /06z TAFs/

Challenges through the first half of the D10 area forecast through 00z Tuesday will be timing categorical trends and adjustments of cigs, especially during the afternoon hours as moisture depth of nearly  50mb will be way more than seen yesterday, thus keeping stratus around through the 18z-21z period today. Southerly winds Southerly winds will between 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts+ at times will occur through tonight.

Scattered TSRA will impact the region, particularly North TX from I-20 to the Red River Valley this evening. As 925mb flow cranks up to at/above 55-60 kts after nightfall, the  warm advection coupled with increasing ascent will bring some spotty -SHRA to the airports after 01z, with a window for potential TSRA between 04z-06z or 07z.  For now, with exact coverage and timing in question due to a capping inversion still present over the region, I have elected to only introduce VCSH/VCTS at this time.  We'll continue to refine these convective trends, as well as this morning's IFR/MVFR  stratus in the 12z TAFs and beyond. 

05/Marty




PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 69 88 68 86 / 10 40 20 0 0 Waco 79 67 86 68 85 / 0 30 30 0 5 Paris 77 66 83 67 84 / 10 40 40 5 0 Denton 80 67 86 62 84 / 20 50 10 0 0 McKinney 79 67 87 66 84 / 10 40 20 0 0 Dallas 79 69 87 68 87 / 10 40 20 0 0 Terrell 78 67 83 68 84 / 10 30 30 0 0 Corsicana 80 68 83 70 86 / 0 20 40 0 0 Temple 80 68 84 68 86 / 0 20 30 0 5 Mineral Wells 84 66 87 59 87 / 20 50 5 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KRWV CALDWELL MUNI,TX 19 sm33 minSSE 0910 smOvercast73°F68°F83%29.93
KLHB HEARNE MUNI,TX 24 sm28 minSSE 0610 smOvercast73°F68°F83%29.93
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Central Texas,



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