Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ventress, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 6:05 PM CST (00:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 321 Pm Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters very rough. Rain showers likely in the evening, then slight chance of rain showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers after midnight.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 321 Pm Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis.. Strong northerly winds with frequent gusts to gale force will continue across the coastal waters tonight. Winds and seas will subside slightly by Thursday morning but small craft advisory conditions will continue into Thursday night. Light winds and seas will develop by Friday and continue through the weekend with high pressure in place over the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ventress, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.4     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 102135 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

SHORT TERM. Strong cold air advection across the tidal lakes and sounds tonight will allow for boundary layer winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts to translate down to the surface tonight. The strongest winds are expected along the immediate coast in Mississippi and coastal Louisiana and across metro New Orleans to the south of Lake Pontchartrain. A wind advisory will be issued for these areas as wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph could occur tonight. The main concern in wind advisory will be high profile vehicles encountering difficult driving conditions in open areas like bridges.

Outside of the wind threat, isentropically induced cloud cover and showers will continue to develop across the forecast area this evening and tonight. A gradual shifting of the main rain band from around Baton Rouge toward the coastal counties and parishes is expected through the night. By tomorrow morning, most of the rain should be offshore with only scattered showers expected along the immediate Louisiana coast. Increased dry air advection and some weak subsidence aloft will bring mostly clear skies and dry weather to the remainder of the forecast area during the day tomorrow. Strong cold air advection will continue, and expect to see temperatures well below normal in the middle to upper 50s tomorrow.

The brief interlude from cloudy and rainy conditions will come to an end on Thursday as a low pressure system develops in the Gulf of Mexico. As the low forms, warm-frontal processes will become dominant. Another isentropically forced cloud cover and rainfall event is expected to take hold Thursday morning and persist into Friday morning as the low tracks just offshore. The coastal waters should be in the warm-sector to the south of the cold front, and some thunderstorm activity will be possible offshore. Temperatures will remain below normal on Thursday with highs only warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s. As the low departs on Friday and drier air begins to move in from the west, gradually clearing skies and decreasing rain chances can be expected. Some moderation in temperatures is also expected as a more Pacific based airmass advects in. Highs should warm into the middle to upper 60s.

LONG TERM. A zonal flow pattern will dominate the Gulf South in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be in control and expect to see partly cloudy skies and dry weather through Sunday night. Temperatures will continue to slowly modify with highs in the upper 60s and lower forecast each day. The drier airmass should allow for a greater diurnal range, and expect to see lows in the 40s over inland areas and the low 50s along the coast both Friday and Saturday nights. Increased onshore flow and moisture advection into the area Sunday night should keep temperatures warmer in the lower to middle 50s.

Model guidance is in good agreement that another positively tilted upper level trough axis will begin to move toward the area on Monday and Tuesday. A deepening low over the Midwest will drive another cold front through the region Monday into Monday night. Conditions look somewhat favorable for a few thunderstorms to develop in advance of the front, but the severe risk looks limited as the strongest dynamics remain well north of the region. Temperatures will remain warmer than average on Monday with highs lower to middle 70s. In the wake of the front on Tuesday, colder air moving in will push highs back below average in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

AVIATION. MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS and occasional lower visibility in SHRA/RA are expected to continue through the afternoon with mainly MVFR expected tonight before improvement to VFR expected mid to late morning on Wednesday. Northerly winds are expected to remain gusty at most airports in the wake of the cold frontal passage through the afternoon and most airports near the coast and tidal lakes through tonight and Wednesday morning. 22/TD

MARINE. Strong cold air advection across the coastal waters will easily transport down boundary layer flow of 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts to the surface through tomorrow. A developing low pressure system in the central Gulf will also keep winds elevated into Thursday. This low pressure system is expected to pass through the eastern waters Thursday night and early Friday. As a result, small craft advisories are in effect due to rough boating conditions through Thursday evening. The pressure gradient will begin to relax on Friday as the low departs and high pressure begins to build in from the west. Winds and seas should decrease to between 10 and 15 knots as the high settles in. Seas should also respond to these lighter winds and fall to between 2 and 4 feet.

DECISION SUPPORT.

DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast Support for the City of New Orleans. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 39 56 39 59 / 100 10 10 30 BTR 41 58 39 59 / 100 10 10 30 ASD 40 58 39 61 / 100 10 10 40 MSY 46 56 47 61 / 100 10 10 40 GPT 42 56 43 60 / 100 10 10 50 PQL 42 57 41 62 / 90 10 10 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ040-058-060>064- 066>070.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-555- 557.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ575-577.

MS . Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ080>082.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-550- 552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ538-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ577.



PG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 82 mi53 min NNE 6 G 13 54°F 65°F1020.2 hPa

Wind History for East Bank 1, Norco, B. LaBranche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA4 mi70 minNNE 1410.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1023.4 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA17 mi72 minNNE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast49°F45°F86%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZR

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE3CalmCalmSE6SE5SE4S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM CST     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:11 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM CST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:08 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:16 PM CST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:40 PM CST     1.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.21.21.210.80.50.30-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.71.11.31.41.41.31.31.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:09 AM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:10 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:46 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:13 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:51 PM CST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM CST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.11.21.110.80.50.30-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.30.60.91.21.31.31.31.21.11.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.