Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ventress, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:41PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 6:27 AM CDT (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:23PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 300 Am Cdt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..South winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 300 Am Cdt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure continuing to ridge west across the northern gulf of mexico will maintain a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms, mainly during the late night and morning hours, will continue through Thursday. Showers and Thunderstorm chances will increase for Friday and the weekend as an easterly wave moves across the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ventress, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.4     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 210914
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
414 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019

Short term
A few sh TS developing this morning and this trend should continue
into the daylight hours. The daily thunderstorm routine will
remain through today. But instead of getting drier, we will begin
to see a deeper surge of moisture from the gulf moving into the
area. The first of these comes Thursday. A second surge moves in
for Friday. Pw values remain around 2.25" but Thursday will be
the transition to a more tropical environment as pw values will
rise to around 2.6". This remains the case into Friday and could
even remain into Saturday. Friday should be a heavier rainfall
day somewhere along the gulf coast since a better focus will be
provided in the form of an easterly wave which will help cause
850mb convergence and lift. This could cause some flooding
concerns for those that find themselves where the bulk of this
moisture moves ashore. The area moving in on Friday is the
tropical environment with an abundance of sh TS near the yucatan
this morning. This moisture is on the east side of a tutt low but
will eventually be funneled north along the tropical wave moving
west over the central gulf.

There are some global models that are wanting to bring a cold
front with an acutal thermal gradient into the area by next week.

But that is too far out to give any credence at the moment.

Aviation
Currently, only flight restriction is at khum, where there are MVFR
ceilings. They did have a brief period of ifr conditions with fog,
but with the cloud deck moving in, fog threat should lessen
somewhat. Main concern for the day will be convective potential.

Threat will increase beyond 15z as daytime heating gets going, with
primary threat after 18z. For now, will carry vcts in forecast. The
few cells we've seen over the last couple of hours have been very
slow moving, and may be more propagation than movement. Localized
ifr conditions in thunderstorms with 30 knot gusts, for the most
part. Would expect most tsra to weaken or dissipate by about 00z
Thursday. 35

Marine
Bermuda ridge flow pattern to maintain light winds and low seas that
will become locally enhanced near thunderstorms complexes that
develop mainly in the overnight hours. 35

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal risk excessive rainfall for Friday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 88 71 90 73 80 10 60 10
btr 89 74 89 75 80 20 80 10
asd 90 73 90 74 60 20 70 30
msy 90 77 89 77 60 20 80 30
gpt 87 75 87 75 40 20 60 30
pql 90 73 89 73 50 30 60 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 82 mi57 min Calm G 1 77°F 85°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for East Bank 1, Norco, B. LaBranche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA4 mi91 minN 010.00 miFair75°F75°F100%1016.3 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA17 mi34 minW 410.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZR

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3Calm--CalmCalmCalmNE4NE4CalmCalmE4CalmSE3SW4Calm--------------Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4W5NW3S11S6S4SW5E5E5W5Calm--Calm------CalmCalm
2 days ago--CalmCalmS4S4S5W5S4SW5S9SW5SW9SW5S6S7S4S7------CalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:07 AM CDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:54 AM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:23 PM CDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:25 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.110.90.90.911.11.21.31.31.31.21.10.90.80.70.60.60.70.80.91.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:51 AM CDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:29 AM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:07 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:25 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.110.90.80.80.90.911.11.21.21.21.210.90.70.60.60.60.60.70.911.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.