LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

As been advertised, after over a week of the same pattern aloft, Sunday will be the transition day. The upper high just east of our region will begin to spread west across our CWFA and try to merge with the upper high over the four corners region. This will fill the weakness aloft and finally allow the large scale trough to move north and east cutting off the active southwesterly flow.
Diurnally driven showers and storms will remain possible with the higher rain chances and coverage on Sunday, however, going into the start of the new workweek, the upper level subsidence will begin to limit the coverage. This pattern takes shape and should remain through Thursday night and Friday. With the lower rain chances, temperatures will fire back up especially with the higher heights/thicknesses. Also, with the surface high mostly east, low level flow will remain southerly, which should limit mixing of low level dewpoints...meaning the heat and humidity together may require more heat headlines next week, unfortunately. (Frye)

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Convection is ongoing across local terminals this afternoon and will remain possible through sunset or so with a downward trend in coverage expected over time. Covered the scattered coverage with TEMPOs. Expect reduced VIS and ceilings in and around convection.
Otherwise, guidance do show MVFR (or lower) VIS/CIGs overnight and early Saturday for most terminals. Didn't go as low as IFR for now, but subsequent updates may require further reduced VIS/CIGs if confidence grows. Otherwise, light and variable winds expected outside of convection. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Favorable marine conditions will largely persist through the upcoming forecast period. Diurnally driven (mostly) convection will still be possible overnight and during the morning hours.
Slightly higher winds and seas are likely in and around convection. Otherwise, generally southerly flow expected for the offshore waters and nearshore will be rather variable depending on the diurnal surface boundaries (e.g. sea breeze or outflow boundary). Coverage of showers and storms will begin to decrease as we go later into the new workweek next week. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 88 72 89 / 60 90 20 70 BTR 75 91 76 92 / 40 80 20 80 ASD 74 91 76 91 / 70 90 20 80 MSY 77 90 78 90 / 60 80 20 80 GPT 76 89 77 90 / 50 80 20 70 PQL 75 92 76 94 / 40 70 30 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.