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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 233 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots late. Bay waters light chop.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 233 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
winds will continue their decrease this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient behind a departing cold front relaxes. However, north winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft can still be expected until 9pm, Thus a small craft advisory remains in effect for 0 to 60 nm.
conditions will further improve into Monday as high pressure builds in overhead. Winds and seas will increase by Tuesday night and remain elevated through Thursday as a tightening pressure gradient produces a prolonged and strong easterly fetch across the northern gulf of mexico.
small craft should begin exercising caution Tuesday morning, with advisories potentially needed starting in the afternoon.

FXUS64 KLIX 102140 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 340 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The difficult forecasting and need for complex discussion ended with the passing of the frontal system this morning. Currently, the H5 trough axis trailing the surface front is almost directly over the area. CAA will be the order of a day or so, with northwesterly flow dominating the area. As the upper level trough moves east into Monday it relaxes and flow becomes zonal by Tuesday. By late Tuesday a cutoff low is developing over the desert southwest causing upper level flow to be southern stream dominant with southwesterly flow across the area. At the surface the high pressure currently to the west is moving into the area, becoming centered over us by Monday morning. It pushes to the NNE, but remains dominant through the short term period ending Wednesday morning.

Starting with the easiest answer to what these atmospheric conditions mean, it will be dry with very little to no chance of rain. Winds are currently out of the northwest to north being driven by the transition between low pressure to high pressure.
They are fairly high, on the tail end of gale warning conditions offshore, but should be relaxing this afternoon into Small Craft Advisory range through tomorrow morning. As the surface high pressure begins to dominate the area and move on past, winds will lighten becoming variable and ending up easterly. Temperatures tonight are a little tricky. Clear skies and the northwest flow will put overnight lows just below and at freezing in our SW MS counties and adjacent northern tier of LA parishes, ranging north to south from 30 in McComb, MS to 32 in Amite, LA. Over the rest of the area lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. So, protecting your pets and tender plants will be a concern tonight. Skies should be clear through Tuesday, but with the shift of the upper level flows temperatures will be in a slow climb and this will continue as skies become partly cloudy Tuesday into Wednesday.
High temperatures should be in the upper 50s warming into the low 60s Tuesday. Of note, associated with the lower temperatures and high pressure, RHs will be dropping into the mid 30% range Monday and Tuesday afternoons in the SW MS counties and adjacent northern tier of LA parishes.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A significant spread in the various deterministic model solutions continues to exist in the extended period. All of the guidance is in agreement that a closed low over the Four Corners region at the start of the period will move east into Texas by Friday. Further to the south, over the central and southern Gulf, several of the global models indicate the development of a strong low pressure system, but the spatial orientation of this low differs greatly. Beyond Friday, the forecast spread deviates even further with some of the deterministic models indicating a deep longwave trough forming over the eastern third of the CONUS as the closed low over Texas merges with a northern stream trough diving into the Midwest. These solutions have a much stronger surface low move across Florida and then up the eastern seaboard. Other models show the closed low over Texas remaining intact and separate from the northern stream energy.
The closed low eventually moves toward the Gulf coast and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and a strong surface low forms beneath the upper low over the forecast area. At the same time, a much weaker surface low in the Gulf remains further south and eventually dissipates over the weekend. Given these large spreads in the deterministic solutions, have opted to stick with an ensemble based forecast in the extended period.

An analysis of the GEFS and EPS output indicates a fairly significant low pressure anomaly both at the surface and aloft from Friday through Sunday over the Gulf coast. The 500mb anomaly is actually a bit more supportive of the closed low solution, but confidence remains too low latch onto that given deterministic solution. Given the large discrepancies, have largely stuck with the NBM deterministic output for the extended period. This output has temperatures remaining near to slightly below average with highs near 60 and lows in the 40s and low 50s beneath mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Rain chances will increase as early as Friday, but the highest probabilities continue to be Saturday into Saturday night at 30 to 40 percent. Given the cool and stable nature of the airmass and lack of instability in the low to mid-levels, no thunderstorm activity is expected. A more stratiform light to moderate rain will be most likely. Additionally, persistent easterly flow will allow for coastal flooding issues to develop on east facing shores later this week, and coastal flood products will likely be needed as early as Wednesday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Overall weather has cleared with the exception of KGPT which is still seeing lingering effects of this morning's frontal passage shown by its low CIG and MVFR status. This will be clearing to IFR in the next several hours. All other locations are currently IFR and this will remain the case through the period. Only notable condition is winds dropping through the period and shifting to northeasterly at the very end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 339 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The frontal passage early this morning left winds out of the northwest to north in the 25 to 30 knot range in the coastal offshore waters with frequent gusts to 34 knots there. These conditions are expected through early afternoon before winds ease somewhat. There will be a brief lull in hazardous conditions Monday afternoon and much of the overnight hours before winds and waves increase again. Expect that Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines, or Small Craft Advisories will be necessary over most or all of the waters for a significant portion of the forecast period from Tuesday through the end of the workweek, and perhaps beyond.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 30 57 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 34 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 33 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 42 57 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 35 58 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 34 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Weeks Bay
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Sun -- 01:28 AM CST     1.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM CST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:16 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:08 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:53 PM CST     1.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:22 PM CST     1.26 feet Low Tide
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Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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