New Roads, LA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Roads, LA

June 13, 2024 2:31 PM CDT (19:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM
Moonrise 11:39 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 318 Am Cdt Thu Jun 13 2024

Today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest late. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Bay waters smooth.

Friday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.

Friday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Sunday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.

Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 318 Am Cdt Thu Jun 13 2024

Synopsis - Light offshore flow will prevail through Friday. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary over the coastal waters early this morning with chances diminishing through the day. No appreciable precipitation is expected Friday or Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday night through most of next week as moisture from the southern gulf of mexico advances northward. Increasing onshore winds and seas can be expected during this period, with small craft advisories likely necessary by Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 131748 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1248 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Today will see increasing negative vorticity advection throughout the day as a ridge begins to expand eastward from the southern Plains and Texas. However, there should be enough residual moisture below 700mb to support the development of isolated to widely scattered convection along and south of I-10 with the greatest probabilities along the coast of Louisiana and offshore later this afternoon. PWATS from New Orleans southward will range between 1.75 and 2 inches due to this residual moisture, and lapse rates along the coast will support deeper convection that could produce some brief heavy downpours and locally gusty winds. Given this threat, have PoP values of 20 to 40 percent in place for locations south of I-10. To the north of I-10, the influence of the building ridge will induce enough subsidence to effectively cap off convective development. At most, some fair weather cumulus development can be expected this afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Any convection will quickly dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime heating and skies will clear. Late in the night, increasing low level instability over the warmer Gulf waters will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the diurnal minimum around daybreak. A few of these showers and storms may move toward the immediate coast and this reflected by 20 percent PoP. Overnight lows will be near average.

The shower and thunderstorm activity will be even more suppressed on Friday and Saturday as deep layer ridging becomes centered over the region. Very dry air aloft associated with deep layer subsidence will effectively cap off any rain chances over most of the forecast area both days. This drier airmass will result in precipitable water values dropping to around an inch over northern zones and closer to 1.4 inches along the coast. These values are in the 10th to 25th percentile for mid-June. The only region that may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm develop will be along the immediate coast where low level convergence is enhanced along the sea-breeze. Otherwise, only fair weather cumulus development is anticipated each afternoon. Temperatures will also be warmer than average with readings in the mid to upper 90s expected. Fortunately, the drier air mixing down to to the surface will keep dewpoints just low enough to produce heat index values of 100 to 105. These values are below our advisory criteria, but those who are more susceptible to heat illness including the elderly should limit time outdoors on Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The deep layer ridge axis will shift to the east of the area on Sunday, and this will open the door for a plume of deeper tropical moisture to begin feeding into the region. Sunday will see PWATS rise back to average for mid-June, and this will allow for greater convective activity by Sunday afternoon. PoP values will range from 30 to 50 percent north of I-10 and 50 to 70 percent south of I-10. The highest rain chances will be along the immediate coast and offshore where the deepest moisture is expected. The influence of the departing ridge will still be felt, especially over northern zones, as drier air in the mid- levels lingers. This drier air aloft when combined with fairly steep low level lapse rates could lead to a few wet microburst events Sunday afternoon as convective updrafts punch above 20k feet. Fortunately, the storm motion will be around 10 knots, and this will help to limit the heavy rainfall threat over portions of the southshore on Sunday. The impact of the increased cloud cover and convective activity will keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

The convection will be less pronounced Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating, but a weak upper level impulse rounding the southwest periphery of the upper level high over the Southeast CONUS will keep isolated to scattered convective activity in place over inland zones through the overnight hours. More numerous showers and storms are expected over the warmer offshore waters as the diurnal minimum is reached toward daybreak and low level instability increases. An increase in dewpoints into the 70s will keep overnight lows a few degrees above average with readings only dipping into the lower 70s over southern Mississippi and the upper 70s south of I-10.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be a much more unsettled stretch of weather as the region remains on the western periphery of a deep layer ridge and deep tropical moisture continues to feed into the region. PWATS will be in the 90th percentile or higher each day with readings of between 2 and 2.25 inches expected. The result will be numerous showers and thunderstorms forming each day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s. This reflected by the high PoP values of 60 to 80 percent forecast each day. The convective activity will decrease in coverage a bit each night as temperatures cool back into the 70s, but will still be at least scattered in nature. Storm motion will remain decent at 10 to 15 knots on Monday and Tuesday with a further increase to around 20 knots on Wednesday. However, very high rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour with the strongest convection could lead to some localized flash flooding issues each day next week. The highest threat will be for urban drainage systems that could be easily overwhelmed by these excessive rainfall rates.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

All terminals currently VFR. However, the higher moisture content across the southeast half of the area has become apparent over the last hour or so with a fairly widespread cumulus field southeast of a KMCB-KBTR line, where most cloud bases are well above FL030.
We've even seen a few SHRA/TSRA south of Lake Pontchartrain that will be close enough to KMSY and KHUM to justify at least VCTS for the next few hours. It appears that light northwest winds may provide enough of a lake shadow the next few hours to keep cells far enough away from KNEW to leave them out of that terminal area.
Forecast soundings do show lower precipitable water values progressing southeastward during the afternoon hours and convective areal coverage should diminish prior to sunset. Should see VFR conditions overnight, and little or no SHRA/TSRA development tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Through Saturday, high pressure building over the waters will keep a light south to southeast flow of 10 knots or less in place. Seas of 2 feet or less will accompany these lighter winds. The only concern will be the threat of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity that could produce some waterspouts and gusty winds. By Sunday, the high will shift to the east and a developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche will lead to a tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf. East and southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots on Sunday, 15 to 20 knots on Monday, and then to 20 to 25 knots on Tuesday. Seas will respond to these increased winds and should be in the 5 to 7 feet range over the open Gulf waters by Tuesday. The prolonged nature of these stronger onshore winds will lead to some minor coastal flooding issues by Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 92 68 96 71 / 10 10 10 10 BTR 93 71 96 74 / 10 10 10 10 ASD 93 73 96 75 / 20 10 10 10 MSY 91 77 94 78 / 30 10 20 10 GPT 92 76 93 78 / 20 10 10 10 PQL 93 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi44 min 88°F29.93


Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KHZR FALSE RIVER RGNL,LA 2 sm16 minN 0510 smClear88°F66°F49%29.95
KBTR BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN, RYAN FIELD,LA 20 sm38 minNW 0510 smPartly Cloudy91°F68°F46%29.93
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHZR
   
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Wind History graph: HZR
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
   
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Weeks Bay
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Thu -- 12:58 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:15 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM CDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana, Tide feet


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,




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