New Roads, LA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Roads, LA

March 4, 2024 2:06 AM CST (08:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 6:07 PM
Moonrise 1:56 AM   Moonset 11:50 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 936 Pm Cst Sun Mar 3 2024

.dense fog advisory in effect until 11 am cst Monday - .

Rest of tonight - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Areas of dense fog.

Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Areas of dense fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thunderstorms likely. Showers likely. Areas of fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight.

Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.

Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.

Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.

Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.

Friday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 936 Pm Cst Sun Mar 3 2024

Synopsis - Onshore flow will continue through the end of the week. Dense marine fog is once again expected to develop during the night and persist well into tomorrow morning. As a result, a dense fog advisory has been issued for all of our offshore waters including the lakes/bays. Tomorrow, an approaching upper level disturbance will bring scattered to widespread showers and Thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon and continuing through Tuesday morning, with no precipitation expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another upper level disturbance approaching the area Thursday will bring another chance of showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 040548 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES: 1. Patchy dense fog resulting in sudden drops in visibility to below a quarter mile is expected tonight across much of southeast LA and southern MS and 1 nautical mile or less across the immediate coastal shelf waters along the northern Gulf Coast.

2. Strong to severe storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail are likely between late Monday night through Tuesday morning moving from west to east.

Looking at visible satellite imagery to start us off, we have gradually seen low stratus and fog break out into scattered cu areawide and a bit of agitated cu along the the Atchafalaya and into the Southshore this afternoon where we've seen some shallow showers.
Dew points remain in the mid to upper 60s with highs sitting in the upper 70s. Safe to say it's feeling a lot like spring out there with the humidity and warmth. This moist air mass will linger through tonight with southeasterly onshore flow funneling more developing sea fog inland over parts of southeast LA and southern MS.
Confidence is high in seeing dense fog during periods tonight across much of the area though there may be periods where visibility greatly improves in between waves of sea fog. Confidence is lowest for dense fog along the Atchafalaya basin currently, but regardless have issued a dense fog advisory areawide given the high confidence of impacts to visibility.

Gradual improvement in visibility and low stratus should occur after sunrise Monday morning and we should break out into a familiar cu field ahead of the approaching system. As the day progresses, the combination of increasing surface heating, elevated moisture, and increasing lift from an approaching shortwave trough ejecting out of northern Mexico will induce increasing shower and storm development across the coastal areas which will gradually spread inland during the afternoon and evening hours. By the evening hours, CAM guidance is honing on the existence of a theta-e gradient with deeper moisture extending up from coastal LA through the Atchafalaya basin that could allow the focus of more organized thunderstorm activity to develop. Given the unstable environment (>1500 j/kg MLCAPE, 67- 72F dew point temps), steep mid-level lapse rates (>7 C/km), and increasing wind shear ahead of the shortwave trough, cellular modes with more substantial updrafts could support severe thunderstorms with damaging hail and winds being the primary threat. While wind profiles and storm-relative helicity are weaker through the early afternoon, any surface vorticity generated along the gradient/a boundary that can induce stretching with the high 0-3km CAPE present could support a brief spin up thus tornado potential is non-zero along this corridor during Monday afternoon.

The severe threat quickly transitions to a heavy rainfall threat through Monday night and into Tuesday morning as congealing storms along this boundary interact with the approaching surface trough of low pressure expected to gradually coalesce along coastal LA.
Enhanced moisture convergence in addition to PWATs exceeding 1.7" (daily climatological max) and upper diffluence aiding mass evacuation in the exit region of the upper shortwave trough will make for highly efficient rainfall rates (2-4"/hr) with deeper convection that develops and exactly where this corridor of heavier rain sets up along the coastal areas will be crucial. Since yesterday, it appears confidence has increased regarding localized flooding potential but exactly where greatest impacts will be along and south of the I-10/12 corridor remains uncertain.

As this deeper convection congeals, a larger cold pool could develop on the backside in association with an MCS which could aid in pushing this convection offshore through midday Tuesday as the surface trough deepens east of our area. Thereafter, subsidence and drying should ensue allowing skies to gradually break up and clear through the evening and overnight hours. No formal front is associated with this system so our consolation is some slightly drier air and one day of nicer weather into Wednesday before we see moisture make its return later in the week ahead of our next system.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

By this portion of the forecast period, Wednesday, shortwave that brings convection to the area Tuesday will be east of the Mississippi River Valley and steadily moving eastward. There may be lingering clouds and isolated sprinkles over the CWA on Wednesday morning on the backside of this system but current model runs depict a relatively weak upper low. If it happens to be deeper than latest model runs, that could occur and may need to add precip into the forecast for that timeframe. Otherwise, should be a warm day with highs several degrees above normal topping out around 80 degrees.

Weak ridging on the backside of the mid week trough will continue to support moderate temps on Thursday. A split flow upper level pattern on the West Coast will then phase together with the now amplifying trough moving east across the Rockies. As this system tracks closer to the Mississippi River Valley, moisture will surge north from the Gulf of Mexico. Model PW suggests values locally approaching 2" Friday morning. For context, sounding climatology shows the average PW this time of year to be near 1.7". As the trough approaches Friday, local cooling in the mid/upper levels and increasing low level moisture will result in atmospheric destabilization. At the same time, low and mid level winds will increase substantially with 850mb winds near 50kts and 500mb winds closer to 100kts. That'll bring shear values up to 30kts at 0-1km and 70kts at 0-6km. So with ample moisture in place, increasing shear and instability, could be looking at a decent chance for severe weather across the CWA
One chance from previous forecast is the timing of this event with model blends suggesting more impacts during the day Friday vs Thursday night. That would support at least a better chance for severe storms due to potential for daytime heating destabilization.

Once this system moves through, should be looking at a cooler weekend with rain ending early in this period.

MEFFER

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

In the last hour, have seen conditions start to deteriorate with only KMCB and KBTR above IFR at forecast issuance time. KGPT already near field minima, with most terminals expected to be at least occasionally at LIFR or VLIFR from around 09z to 13-14z.
Beyond that point, ceilings will improve to MVFR and visibilities to VFR. The threat of SHRA/TSRA will increase beyond 18z Monday, although through 00z Tuesday, the better threat of TSRA is probably going to be at KHUM/KBTR/KMSY/KNEW. After 00z Tuesday, rain will become more widespread with ceilings lowering to IFR, and potential for TSRA becoming more widespread. Later forecasts will likely focus timing and location of TSRA in a smaller window.
Once conditions deteriorate tomorrow evening, may not be much improvement until perhaps 18z Thursday.

MARINE
Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

Watching more marine fog creeping into the MS Sound this hour and further fog development can be expected through the evening and overnight hours. Dense fog could linger through the day Monday in some areas as deeper moisture streams over the cooler shelf waters. A dense fog advisory is posted and could be posted again for Monday night. Southerly winds around 10-15kt with gusts upwards of 20-25kt will become variable Tuesday then northerly late Tuesday. Winds will then move around the compass to easterly by Wed then onshore flow through the end of the week. Outside storms, winds will range from 10-20kt throughout the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 59 77 61 73 / 0 30 80 80 BTR 64 80 66 77 / 0 50 80 80 ASD 62 76 64 74 / 0 30 90 90 MSY 64 77 64 74 / 0 40 90 90 GPT 61 73 63 72 / 10 20 90 90 PQL 61 75 63 73 / 10 20 90 90

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHZR FALSE RIVER RGNL,LA 2 sm11 minSSW 077 smOvercast68°F66°F94%29.97
KBTR BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN, RYAN FIELD,LA 20 sm13 minSE 065 smOvercast Mist 70°F66°F88%29.97
Link to 5 minute data for KHZR


Wind History from HZR
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Tide / Current for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
   
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Weeks Bay
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Mon -- 01:55 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM CST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:54 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:47 PM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.4
3
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0.2
4
am
-0.1
5
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-0.2
6
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-0.3
7
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-0.4
8
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-0.3
9
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-0.1
10
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0.1
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
1.3
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1.3
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1.4
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1.4
7
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1.3
8
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1.3
9
pm
1.3
10
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1.2
11
pm
1.1



Tide / Current for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
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Mon -- 01:54 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM CST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:53 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:08 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:22 PM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
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0.6
2
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0.4
3
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0.2
4
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-0.1
5
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-0.2
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-0.3
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-0.3
8
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-0.3
9
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-0.1
10
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0.1
11
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0.3
12
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0.6
1
pm
0.8
2
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1
3
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1.2
4
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1.2
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1.3
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1.3
7
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1.3
8
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1.3
9
pm
1.2
10
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1.2
11
pm
1.1




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,



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