Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saucier, MS

FXUS64 KMOB 132352 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Now through Saturday night

This afternoon, an upper level shortwave trough moves northeast on the west side of an upper high centered off the Florida Atlantic coast. A line of thunderstorms spawned near the Mississippi River moved east over the western third of the forecast area this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to move north of the forecast area by 00z/7pm this evening. East of the weakening line, individual storms will move northeast across the forecast area. With analysis indicating MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg range, along with DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range, a few strong to severe storm may be possible. Bulk Wind Shear over and east of the Alabama state line is limited, leading to more pulse type storms. West of the Alabama, outside of the current storms, the same instability is present, but Bulk Shear around 30kts is indicated, leading to some more organized storms and a bit better chance of rowdy storms. Going into tonight, this passing shortwave is strong enough to shift an upper ridge over the eastern Gulf to off the Florida Atlantic coast a bit, shifting a surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast south a bit, but the forecast area remains under moisture rich flow off the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop south of the coast later tonight, then begin to move onshore during the morning, along with redeveloping over land area in the afternoon. Again, some of these storms may become strong to severe, especially in the mid to late afternoon.

Temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected through the Near Term. High temperatures have topped out in the upper 80s to around 90 today, with Heat Indices topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s. The same is expected for Saturday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast tonight and again Saturday night.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected through Saturday night.
/16

Sunday Through Thursday Night

Upper ridging across the southeast U.S. attempts to build in Sunday through Tuesday of next week as a series of weak shortwaves transit areas to our north. Overall rain chances gradually diminish, particularly as we get into mid to late week as upper ridging strengthens across the southern and central CONUS. Expect scattered to locally numerous coverage of showers and storms Sunday into Monday, particularly in the vicinity of the seabreeze boundary, with proceeding days seeing more isolated to scattered coverage. Ample CAPE and weak shear any given day will favor pulse type ordinary cells that could become strong during peak heating each day producing gusty winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Afternoon highs begin to increase into the lower 90's most days, perhaps even a few mid 90's by mid to late week.
Overnight lows remain warm in the lower to middle 70's each night. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place Sunday through Tuesday. MM/25
Show more