Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Park, GA

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A squall line is currently approaching I-65 early this morning in southwestern Alabama. This line of storms has a history of producing damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes. We expect the line of storms to enter our westernmost counties by 2:30-3:30 AM CT.
There will be ample instability ahead of the line and deep layer shear is quite high at 50-60 kt. The low-level jet should also increase some over the next couple hours. Thus, a Tornado Watch is now in effect until 8 AM ET/7 AM CT for areas generally along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Strong, potentially damaging winds of 40-60 mph and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Once it gets east of the rivers, shear starts to back off, instability wanes a bit, and the shortwave starts to dampen out. Thus, the line is expected to lose some potency and organization as it moves farther east. The caveat may be across south Georgia where the low-level jet remains the strongest early Thursday morning ahead of the line. Therefore, we still can't rule out some gusty winds and a brief tornado or two across south central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. We'll keep an eye on things if we need to locally extend the watch in area and time.

Behind the front, winds will be quite gusty with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph expected. While not quite Wind Advisory level, some low- end impacts such as small broken tree limbs and unsecured small objects being blown around can't be ruled out. Also, if there are any fires, the gusty winds could cause some control issues as we'll quickly dry out behind the storms.

Temperatures will fall behind the front. Lows will be in the 40s tonight.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

High pressure moves across our area Friday then moves off the Atlantic coast by Saturday. Friday will be rather pleasant with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, except near 80 in the southeast Big Bend. The flow quickly becomes more southeasterly and southerly over the weekend with a return to warm and humid weather, though not record warmth as highs rise back into the low 80s.

Chances for showers and storms increase again Sunday ahead of the next system as a shortwave moves into the southeast. The larger parent trough swings a strong cold front through the area late Sunday into Monday. Right now, shear and instability ahead of this system don't appear favorable for severe weather, but we'll keep watching.

Much colder air arrives next week with a medium to high chance (30- 70%) of temperatures favorable for a late-season front (36 or lower)
Monday and Tuesday nights. Additionally, there is a low chance (30% or less) for a light freeze away from the coast, especially Tuesday night. This would be hazardous for agricultural interests if planting has started early. Also, we'll have much drier air in place, which could lead to elevated fire danger next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Conditions will deteriorate this morning as a strong to occasionally severe squall line sweeps across the area through the morning hours.
Ahead of the line, expect widespread IFR cloud cover. Gusty non- thunderstorm winds will also occur both ahead of the squall line and behind the squall line as winds quickly shift northwest with frontal passage. Some severe storms could contain 35 to 45 knot gusts, especially at western terminals of ECP/DHN.

MARINE
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A line of strong to potentially severe storms will move across the marine area through early this afternoon. Strong wind gusts and waterspouts will be possible. Behind the front, strong northerly breezes are expected with a low chance (30% or less) of gale-force gusts over our western waters. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for our waters through Friday morning, except through this evening for St. Andrews Bay. Winds slacken heading into Friday with moderate easterly breezes. Winds turn more southeasterly and southerly Sunday ahead of the next cold front. Another round of Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Monday behind the next cold front.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A line of strong to severe storms will move across the area this morning into early this afternoon. Strong, erratic winds are likely with the stronger storms. Behind the storms, dispersions become high as transport winds become northerly around 20-30 mph. Winds become much lighter and more variable on Friday as high pressure moves overhead with low dispersions likely. Transport winds become more southeasterly Saturday and increase to 10 mph or so, leading to good dispersions. Min RH values will remain above critical levels through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The fast motion of the squall line will keep rainfall totals under an inch in most places. A couple localized spots could see as much as an inch and a half. The next system doesn't look to bring much in the way of meaningful rainfall, only up to half an inch at most.
Thus, no flood concerns are expected. The only hydrologic concern remains the severe to extreme drought ongoing across the area.

For more information on local drought impacts, visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 72 44 74 51 / 90 0 0 0 Panama City 70 47 71 53 / 80 0 0 0 Dothan 65 41 69 47 / 80 0 0 0 Albany 69 40 69 46 / 90 0 0 0 Valdosta 71 42 74 49 / 90 0 0 0 Cross City 74 47 80 55 / 80 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 52 68 57 / 80 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Friday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ751-752-770-772.