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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 209 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots late. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds, building to 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds this afternoon. Protected waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers early this morning, then showers this afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters very rough. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 209 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
a strong cold front will sweep across the waters today with winds clocking around to the northwest in its wake by tonight. A rapid onset of gale-force northwest wind gusts is expected this afternoon and evening across the coastal waters in the wake of the cold front. A gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters. Gales will subside later tonight with winds remaining around 20 knots into early Monday afternoon. Offshore wave heights will increase this afternoon and peak around 5 to 8 feet tonight into Monday. Winds will clock around to the northeast by Tuesday, as high pressure settles over the mid- atlantic, with speeds continuing in the 15 to 20 knot range. While there is uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday and beyond, winds may increase further to around 20 to 25 knots, especially if low pressure develops south of the waters.

FXUS62 KTAE 100829 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 329 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today ahead of and along an approaching strong cold front. Dew points have trended warmer than previous forecast this morning, supporting perhaps more instability than previously forecast.
Large scale lift remains in place along with moderate low level wind shear, leading to a marginal risk for severe weather. The primary threat for storms today are damaging winds, a few tornadoes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected, with isolated higher amounts near 3 to 4 inches possible. While widespread flooding is not expected, these higher totals in urban or already saturated areas may cause some minor flooding issues. The main line of storms is forecast to enter our western zones a few hours before sunrise and push eastward through the area today, eventually exiting the area by this evening. Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible all day.

Much cooler and drier air will push into the region after the front with breezy northwest winds.

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Fairly cold and dry conditions are expected to start out the period with surface high pressure to the north keeping northeasterly winds parked over the area. A very gradual warming and moistening trend is expected through the week. Rain chances are forecast to increase again heading into the weekend as another Gulf low tries to develop to the southwest. It's too early to pin down the details of this system at this point.


AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

LIFR conditions are forecast to spread over most of the area this morning ahead of an approaching line of showers and storms.
Showers and storms are forecast to push into the western areas a few hours before sunrise before continuing eastward throughout the day. IFR to MVFR conditions are expected to remain in the wake of the front with breezy northwest winds. Eventually conditions return to VFR towards the tail end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front will sweep across the waters today with winds clocking around to the northwest in its wake by tonight. A rapid onset of gale-force northwest wind gusts is expected this afternoon and evening across the coastal waters in the wake of the cold front. A gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters. Gales will subside later tonight with winds remaining around 20 knots into early Monday afternoon. Offshore wave heights will increase this afternoon and peak around 5 to 8 feet tonight into Monday. Winds will clock around to the northeast by Tuesday, as high pressure settles over the mid- Atlantic, with speeds continuing in the 15 to 20 knot range. While there is uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday and beyond, winds may increase further to around 20 to 25 knots, especially if low pressure develops south of the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front is forecast to push across the area today with breezy northwest winds in its wake. Given recent rainfall and expected additional rainfall with this front today, there are no fire weather concerns for the next few days.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to push across the area today ahead of a strong cold front. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with isolated higher amounts near 3 to 4 inches. While widespread flooding is not expected, a few spots of minor flooding may be possible if the higher totals end up over already saturated areas from the last event. Higher totals could also create further rises on area rivers.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 70 38 56 36 / 100 30 0 0 Panama City 70 39 57 39 / 90 10 0 0 Dothan 68 34 54 33 / 90 10 0 0 Albany 68 35 54 32 / 90 30 0 0 Valdosta 71 37 56 35 / 100 70 0 0 Cross City 75 40 59 38 / 90 90 0 0 Apalachicola 69 40 57 43 / 90 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

Gale Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ750- 752-770-772.

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Spring Warrior Creek
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Sun -- 04:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:24 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:48 PM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:05 PM EST     1.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:39 PM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spring Warrior Creek, Florida, Tide feet

Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:26 AM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:00 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:07 PM EST     1.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:51 PM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aucilla River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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