Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Park, GA
September 11, 2024 8:57 AM EDT (12:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:14 AM Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 2:05 PM Moonset 11:55 PM |
GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 400 Am Edt Wed Sep 11 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Thursday morning - .
Today - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 5 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 5 feet at 5 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 11 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds and southwest 5 feet at 11 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southwest 5 feet at 10 seconds and southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 400 Am Edt Wed Sep 11 2024
Synopsis -
a stationary front just south of the waters will promote easterly winds through at least today. Winds will gradually shift to a more southerly direction through tomorrow as the stationary boundary begins to move northward as a warm front. A small craft advisory begins west of apalachicola from this morning and continues through tomorrow afternoon, where seas will peak from 6 to 10 feet. And east of apalachicola, the small craft advisory will go into effect this afternoon and continue through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, hurricane francine is forecast to move northeastward away from the coast of northeastern mexico and south texas and make landfall in louisiana today. After landfall, the center of francine is expected to move into mississippi on tonight or tomorrow. Rain chances remain high through Friday with the possibility of waterspouts, locally gusty winds, and reduced visibility in the heavier rain. Looking ahead, more tranquil boating conditions are on tap this weekend.
a stationary front just south of the waters will promote easterly winds through at least today. Winds will gradually shift to a more southerly direction through tomorrow as the stationary boundary begins to move northward as a warm front. A small craft advisory begins west of apalachicola from this morning and continues through tomorrow afternoon, where seas will peak from 6 to 10 feet. And east of apalachicola, the small craft advisory will go into effect this afternoon and continue through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, hurricane francine is forecast to move northeastward away from the coast of northeastern mexico and south texas and make landfall in louisiana today. After landfall, the center of francine is expected to move into mississippi on tonight or tomorrow. Rain chances remain high through Friday with the possibility of waterspouts, locally gusty winds, and reduced visibility in the heavier rain. Looking ahead, more tranquil boating conditions are on tap this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 111106 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 706 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Hurricane Francine is expected to approach the Louisiana coast tonight. A stationary front remains draped over our marine areas, and we'll still have moist flow overriding this front, which will lead to showers across the area. The limited instability north of the front will keep thunder chances lower. Given the abundant cloud cover and showery weather, highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Later tonight, our focus will turn to the outer bands of Francine.
As Francine makes landfall and begins to move inland, it will likely push the stationary front inland as a warm front. How quickly this occurs will determine our risk for severe storms overnight. Hi-res modeling shows a broken line of semi-discrete supercells that develop and move eastward across the area late tonight into Thursday. South of the warm front, hodographs become elongated and strongly curved with some instability present. Tornadoes and gusty winds will be the primary hazard in storms that are rooted south of the warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from DeFuniak Springs to Apalachicola southwestward in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
north of that. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible in the bands of storms, which may lead to localized flooding. For that reason, have issued a Flood Watch for portions of the Florida Panhandle.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Thursday night)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
The outer bands of Francine will continue to pivot through our area as Francine moves across the lower Mississippi River Valley. With the warm front advancing inland, more instability will be present, and the severe weather threat remains with tornadoes and gusty winds possible. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over south central Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend. Given that there will be some breaks between the bands, high temperatures may climb up into the lower to middle 80s.
The rain bands should diminish in coverage and intensity Thursday evening into Thursday night as Francine weakens quickly over the mid- South. Lows will be in the lower to mid-70s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Francine will be tracking well inland by Friday, though a frontal boundary will linger over our region. This will lead to increased rain chances on Friday, with perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder. The frontal boundary is expected to meander over the southeast which will keep the chance for a few rain showers with the potential for thunder in the forecast at about 30 percent or less. Temperatures appear to return remain near normal for this time of with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low 80s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Sites just started reporting MVFR conditions so adjusted the onset of IFR or lower TAFs until later in the morning. Tried to time timing of rain for each site, but it will be highly dependent on how the front moves in and interacts with Francine. Opted to only keep thunder at ECP today, so will likely need to adjust thunder into the TAF sites as we get better confidence for storms.
MARINE
Issued at 359 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
v
MARINE
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
A stationary front just south of the waters will promote easterly winds through at least today. Winds will gradually shift to a more southerly direction through tomorrow as the stationary boundary begins to move northward as a warm front. A Small Craft Advisory begins west of Apalachicola from this morning and continues through tomorrow afternoon, where seas will peak from 6 to 10 feet. And east of Apalachicola, the Small Craft Advisory will go into effect this afternoon and continue through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, Hurricane Francine is forecast to move northeastward away from the coast of northeastern Mexico and south Texas and make landfall in Louisiana today. After landfall, the center of Francine is expected to move into Mississippi on tonight or tomorrow. Rain chances remain high through Friday with the possibility of waterspouts, locally gusty winds, and reduced visibility in the heavier rain. Looking ahead, more tranquil boating conditions are on tap this weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Showers today will become more numerous into tonight and Thursday as Hurricane Francine moves inland across the southeast US Thursday. Transport winds will be out of the east to southeast around 10 to 20 mph over the next few days, leading to fair to good dispersions each day, outside of showers and storms. A few storms tonight into Thursday could be strong to severe with gusty winds and possible tornadoes.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Confidence continued to increase for the potential of heavy rain associated with Hurricane Francine. As as a result, we've issued a Flash Flood Watch for a good portion of the western FL Panhandle and down into Franklin County. Storm total rainfall from today through Friday night range from about 3 to 6 inches in the watch area, with potentially higher amounts possible. Elsewhere, such as in southeast AL rainfall amounts are closer to 2 to 3 inches. In southwest GA, amounts are closer to 1.0 to 2.5 inches and east of the Apalachicola River in FL, amounts vary from 0.75 to 4.0 inches with the higher amounts closer to the river.
At this time, riverine flooding is not expected based on the drier conditions in the western FL Panhandle which is where the highest rain is expected to fall.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 81 73 82 74 / 70 50 90 60 Panama City 81 75 84 76 / 90 80 90 60 Dothan 76 70 81 72 / 80 80 90 60 Albany 78 71 81 72 / 70 60 80 60 Valdosta 80 72 83 73 / 70 50 70 40 Cross City 85 74 86 75 / 80 40 80 30 Apalachicola 82 78 84 78 / 80 80 90 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for FLZ007>010-012>015-108-112-114-115.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
High Surf Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-112-114.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-112-114.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ730-755-765-775.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ750-752-770- 772.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 706 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Hurricane Francine is expected to approach the Louisiana coast tonight. A stationary front remains draped over our marine areas, and we'll still have moist flow overriding this front, which will lead to showers across the area. The limited instability north of the front will keep thunder chances lower. Given the abundant cloud cover and showery weather, highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Later tonight, our focus will turn to the outer bands of Francine.
As Francine makes landfall and begins to move inland, it will likely push the stationary front inland as a warm front. How quickly this occurs will determine our risk for severe storms overnight. Hi-res modeling shows a broken line of semi-discrete supercells that develop and move eastward across the area late tonight into Thursday. South of the warm front, hodographs become elongated and strongly curved with some instability present. Tornadoes and gusty winds will be the primary hazard in storms that are rooted south of the warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from DeFuniak Springs to Apalachicola southwestward in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
north of that. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible in the bands of storms, which may lead to localized flooding. For that reason, have issued a Flood Watch for portions of the Florida Panhandle.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Thursday night)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
The outer bands of Francine will continue to pivot through our area as Francine moves across the lower Mississippi River Valley. With the warm front advancing inland, more instability will be present, and the severe weather threat remains with tornadoes and gusty winds possible. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over south central Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend. Given that there will be some breaks between the bands, high temperatures may climb up into the lower to middle 80s.
The rain bands should diminish in coverage and intensity Thursday evening into Thursday night as Francine weakens quickly over the mid- South. Lows will be in the lower to mid-70s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Francine will be tracking well inland by Friday, though a frontal boundary will linger over our region. This will lead to increased rain chances on Friday, with perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder. The frontal boundary is expected to meander over the southeast which will keep the chance for a few rain showers with the potential for thunder in the forecast at about 30 percent or less. Temperatures appear to return remain near normal for this time of with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low 80s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Sites just started reporting MVFR conditions so adjusted the onset of IFR or lower TAFs until later in the morning. Tried to time timing of rain for each site, but it will be highly dependent on how the front moves in and interacts with Francine. Opted to only keep thunder at ECP today, so will likely need to adjust thunder into the TAF sites as we get better confidence for storms.
MARINE
Issued at 359 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
v
MARINE
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
A stationary front just south of the waters will promote easterly winds through at least today. Winds will gradually shift to a more southerly direction through tomorrow as the stationary boundary begins to move northward as a warm front. A Small Craft Advisory begins west of Apalachicola from this morning and continues through tomorrow afternoon, where seas will peak from 6 to 10 feet. And east of Apalachicola, the Small Craft Advisory will go into effect this afternoon and continue through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, Hurricane Francine is forecast to move northeastward away from the coast of northeastern Mexico and south Texas and make landfall in Louisiana today. After landfall, the center of Francine is expected to move into Mississippi on tonight or tomorrow. Rain chances remain high through Friday with the possibility of waterspouts, locally gusty winds, and reduced visibility in the heavier rain. Looking ahead, more tranquil boating conditions are on tap this weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Showers today will become more numerous into tonight and Thursday as Hurricane Francine moves inland across the southeast US Thursday. Transport winds will be out of the east to southeast around 10 to 20 mph over the next few days, leading to fair to good dispersions each day, outside of showers and storms. A few storms tonight into Thursday could be strong to severe with gusty winds and possible tornadoes.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Confidence continued to increase for the potential of heavy rain associated with Hurricane Francine. As as a result, we've issued a Flash Flood Watch for a good portion of the western FL Panhandle and down into Franklin County. Storm total rainfall from today through Friday night range from about 3 to 6 inches in the watch area, with potentially higher amounts possible. Elsewhere, such as in southeast AL rainfall amounts are closer to 2 to 3 inches. In southwest GA, amounts are closer to 1.0 to 2.5 inches and east of the Apalachicola River in FL, amounts vary from 0.75 to 4.0 inches with the higher amounts closer to the river.
At this time, riverine flooding is not expected based on the drier conditions in the western FL Panhandle which is where the highest rain is expected to fall.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 81 73 82 74 / 70 50 90 60 Panama City 81 75 84 76 / 90 80 90 60 Dothan 76 70 81 72 / 80 80 90 60 Albany 78 71 81 72 / 70 60 80 60 Valdosta 80 72 83 73 / 70 50 70 40 Cross City 85 74 86 75 / 80 40 80 30 Apalachicola 82 78 84 78 / 80 80 90 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for FLZ007>010-012>015-108-112-114-115.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
High Surf Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-112-114.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-112-114.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ730-755-765-775.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ750-752-770- 772.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL | 77 mi | 124 min | NE 4.1G | 76°F | 29.89 | 74°F | ||
| FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL | 88 mi | 58 min | ENE 5.1G | 80°F | 80°F | 29.95 |
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KVLD
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVLD
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVLD
Wind History graph: VLD
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida, Tide feet
Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 12:55 AM EDT 1.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:06 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT 3.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:16 PM EDT 0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EDT 2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 12:55 AM EDT 1.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:06 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT 3.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:16 PM EDT 0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EDT 2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Spring Warrior Creek, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 2 |
| 3 am |
| 2.3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.6 |
| 5 am |
| 2.9 |
| 6 am |
| 3.1 |
| 7 am |
| 3.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2.6 |
| 10 am |
| 2.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.5 |
Moody AFB, GA,
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