Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 7:02PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:49 AM EDT (11:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 259 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019 /159 Am Cdt Wed Oct 16 2019/
Today..West winds 15 knots will become northwesterly late this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 259 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis.. Westerly winds will be moderate today becoming northerly tonight. On Friday, winds will become easterly and increase in the evening and overnight. Saturday southerly winds will be moderate to strong.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 161017
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
617 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Aviation
[through 12z Thursday]
terminals will be under ifr and lifr conditions through the rest
of the evening and into the early morning hours. CIGS and vis will
be reduced during the passing of showers. Expect a gradual wind
shift to the NW with wind speeds temporarily increasing to around
10 kts. Quick improvement of vis and CIGS will occur from west to
east across all terminals as dry stable air fills in behind the
front.VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Prev discussion [326 am edt]
Near term [through today]
A cold front will move across the tri-state region bringing an end
to the wet pattern we have had for the past few day. Rain chances
will decrease from west to east as dry air and subsidence pushes in
behind the front.

Until then, showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will continue
throughout most of the morning hours and into the early afternoon.

It is worth noting that a few velocity couplets were observed moving
east at around 3z over apalachee bay. Although environmental
conditions will not be supportive of severe weather tomorrow, we
will continue to monitor closely for similar features, especially
over the water where instability is greater.

Max temps will be in the upper 70s across SE alabama and mid-80s
elsewhere. By late afternoon, northwesterly winds will increase to
around 10 kts setting the area up for a notably cool night.

Short term [tonight through Friday]
In the upper levels, a trough will be over the southeast until a
ridge builds in on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through this evening. Rain will clear out this evening. Cold, dry
air will move into the region tonight. Tonight through Friday
morning, pops will be near zero. There will be a 20 to 30 percent
chance for rain Friday afternoon and evening as low level moisture
returns. Highs will be much cooler in the 70s. Lows will be in the
upper 40s and 50s.

Long term [Friday night through Wednesday]
In the upper levels, the ridge will move out on Saturday. A few
minor shortwaves may move through the pattern this weekend before a
longwave trough moves in on Monday. At the surface, a gulf low will
move into the la ms region on Saturday. With increasing moisture
pops will be high this weekend around 40 to 70 percent. By early
next week, pops will be lower as the low moves out. Highs will be
mainly in the 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Marine
Westerly winds will be moderate today becoming northerly tonight. On
Friday, winds will become easterly and increase in the evening and
overnight. Saturday southerly winds will be moderate to strong.

Fire weather
Dry conditions return Thursday afternoon with min rh values
in the mid 30s. However, red flag criteria will not be met.

Hydrology
Despite the much needed rain, river levels are still low. Rain will
continue today. A cold front will move through this evening bringing
drier weather. A wet pattern will return this weekend. Forecast
rainfall totals range from 1 to 2 inches through this evening.

Downpours may be heavy at times. Ponding of water on roadways will
be possible. Otherwise, flooding is not expected.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 83 53 77 52 76 50 0 0 0 20
panama city 83 57 77 58 76 50 0 0 10 30
dothan 78 48 73 49 73 40 0 0 0 10
albany 79 51 72 50 73 40 0 0 0 0
valdosta 82 53 74 51 74 50 0 0 0 10
cross city 85 60 79 56 77 60 10 0 0 20
apalachicola 83 59 75 59 74 50 0 0 10 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Dicatarina
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Dicatarina
marine... Mcd
fire weather... Dicatarina
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi49 min SW 14 G 16 80°F 1011.3 hPa (-0.9)76°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi115 min SW 9.9 G 12 78°F 1010 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi49 min S 5.1 G 9.9 80°F 78°F1011.3 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi56 minSSW 79.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1010.6 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi53 minS 910.00 miOvercast74°F73°F100%1009.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLD

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE4CalmCalm3NE4NE6NE8NE8CalmE6E5SE8CalmSE4S5S11
G19
S11S4S7SW4S5S7
1 day agoCalmNE4Calm343W4N4CalmN7NE6NE3NE3NE3W3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4Calm
2 days agoCalmS4S7443S5SE5W3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmNE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:23 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:31 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:17 PM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.53.13.53.53.12.41.60.90.40.10.20.71.42.22.93.33.432.51.81.31.11.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.