Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:35PM Monday July 22, 2019 7:22 PM EDT (23:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:15PMMoonset 10:41AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 254 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019 /154 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 22 2019/
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..Southwest winds becoming west winds 10 to 15 knots at night. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night and Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 254 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
Synopsis.. Southwesterly flow will increase as the cold front makes its way into our coastal waters tomorrow morning. As the cold front moves across our waters form west to east, expect a southwest to west wind shift at around 10 to 15 kts. The front will also bring increased shower and Thunderstorm activity which will begin tomorrow in the morning and last through Thursday afternoon. The cold front will be weakening as it moves across coastal waters, ultimately stalling somewhere along, or just south, of the big bend. Enhanced shower activity will continue across apalachee bay through Friday before the area returns to a more typical sea/land breeze regime.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 222000
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
400 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Near term [through tonight]
As we enter the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms will be
restricted to offshore and coastal areas. Late tonight, pops are
expected to increase sharply west to east with the approaching cold
front, beginning over our western waters. Lows tonight will be in
the low-mid 70s.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
With the trough and associated cold front moving in from the west,
expect rain chances increasing through the short term. MAX pops will
progress west to east through Wednesday, favoring land during the
day and offshore overnight. The front is expected to stall to our
southeast, maintaining pops > 50% over the eastern big bend through
Wednesday night. With plenty showers and cloud cover, highs will
cool from the mid-upper 80s on Tuesday to the low 80s on Wednesday.

Lows will be in the low-70s and even down to the upper-60s in our
northwestern counties.

Long term [Thursday through Monday]
By Thursday afternoon the front will lose most of its forward speed
and stall across north central fl. As a result a tight moisture
gradient will setup across our warning with dry airmass to the
north. Pops across SE alabama and our extreme western fl. Counties
on Thursday and Friday will be in the 10 to 20% range. Meanwhile,
areas located along the big bend (closer to the stalled front) will
be around 50-60%. By Saturday we will begin to return to classic sea
breeze regime and will remain that way through the beginning of
next work week.

Aviation
[through 18z Tuesday]
thunderstorms most likely at the tlh, vld and dhn sites this
afternoon as sea breeze convection spreads inland. Convection will
quickly dissipate by sunset andVFR conditions are then expected
for the rest of the period.

Marine
Southwesterly flow will increase as the cold front makes its way
into our coastal waters tomorrow morning. As the cold front moves
across our waters form west to east, expect a southwest to west
wind shift at around 10 to 15 kts. The front will also bring
increased shower and thunderstorm activity which will begin
tomorrow in the morning and last through Thursday afternoon. The
cold front will be weakening as it moves across coastal waters,
ultimately stalling somewhere along, or just south, of the big
bend. Enhanced shower activity will continue across apalachee bay
through Friday before the area returns to a more typical sea land
breeze regime.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
The approaching cold front will bring enhanced rainfall
accumulations across the region through at least Thursday.

Widespread QPE through Thursday will be around 1-2 inches with
higher amounts across SW ga and fl big bend. Additional rainfall
accumulations of around 1-2 inches are expected on Friday\Saturday
across southern ga and the fl big bend region as the front stalls
in that area. Despite the active wet pattern this week, flooding
concerns are low at this time. Wpc is forecasting a 5-10% chance
of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Nevertheless,
localized minor flooding is likely to occur in low-lying and poor
drainage areas. We will continue to monitor for increasing qpf
trends as the front approaches.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 73 88 73 82 72 20 70 70 80 60
panama city 76 84 74 83 73 40 80 80 70 50
dothan 73 86 70 83 69 20 90 80 50 20
albany 73 88 71 82 69 20 80 90 70 40
valdosta 73 89 73 80 71 10 70 50 90 60
cross city 72 85 74 82 72 30 60 70 90 70
apalachicola 77 85 75 81 74 30 70 80 90 60

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Skeen
short term... Skeen
long term... Dicatarina
aviation... Johnstone
marine... Dicatarina
fire weather... Harrigan
hydrology... Dicatarina


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi82 min W 8 G 8.9 83°F 1015 hPa (-1.9)76°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi88 min SSW 8 G 12 85°F 82°F1013.4 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi52 min S 5.1 G 8 87°F 87°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi29 minS 510.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1015.1 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi26 minS 710.00 miFair83°F77°F83%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S19
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S5S5CalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmS5CalmCalm3CalmS54CalmCalmCalmS5
1 day ago4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4333S7CalmS5555
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5CalmE6CalmCalmSW12
G19
SW65Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:02 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.511.72.32.93.132.72.21.81.41.21.31.72.12.633.12.92.521.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.