Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:21PM Monday August 10, 2020 8:50 PM EDT (00:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:31PMMoonset 12:05PM Illumination 55% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 316 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020 /216 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 10 2020/
Tonight..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers through the night.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 316 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis.. Seas look to be less than 2 feet through the period with generally light winds as well. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms stay in the forecast through the week with winds and seas higher in and around Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 102304 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 704 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Wednesday]

Diminishing convection is pushing south into the I-10 corridor, so included a TEMPO group at ECP and TLH thru 2Z, while having prevailing VCSH/VCTS for the other terminals. A secondary line of convection is also moving south into our northern GA counties, thus prompting a 3-6Z TEMPO group for ABY. Since rain chances are high areawide tmrw, a PROB30 was introduced at all TAF sites later in the day thru much of the period. VFR conds prevail outside of storms.

PREV DISCUSSION [348 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday].

The combination of plentiful moisture, high instability, and some synoptic forcing from a mid/upper trough over the southeast states has allowed for scattered convection to prevail this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the Big Bend and along the northern half of our forecast area. Locally strong wind gusts, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning have been the main threats, necessitating the issuance of several Significant Weather Advisories today. Convection is expected to persist into the evening hours, but focus near the I-75 corridor tonight closer to the more favorable forcing for ascent, offsetting the loss of daytime heating. Some models are suggesting that a large storm cluster forms near the northeast CWA boundary, so kept likely PoPs with a chance of thunder extending from Turner/Worth to Lowndes County.

Farther upstream, a large convective complex is surging southward from northern GA. This system is forecast to enter our northern GA counties overnight into early tomorrow morning. The complex will likely be weaker than its current state by the time it arrives at our area because of weak shear, but impulses associated with the aforementioned trough should help hold the storm cluster together. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but would not be surprised if SPC later introduces a marginal risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. Regardless, high PoPs are forecast just north of the Tri-state area beginning at 6Z, then spread to the I-10 corridor through the morning. Rain chances then ramp up areawide in the afternoon through the end of the period as diurnally driven convection dominates.

Given the moist airmass and light winds in place, some storms will be effective rainmakers, so there is the potential for localized flooding. Secondary cell formation is also likely from mesoscale boundary collisions. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 90s, with heat indices generally ranging from 101-105 degrees. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s (except along the immediate coast).

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night].

Widespread convection is expected through the period, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. This will be in response to plentiful moisture and instability and a series of weak short waves passing through. Locally heavy rain and strong to severe storms likely. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly suppressed due to clouds and precip.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday].

More of the same through the extended period as a very moist airmass (AOA 2 inch PWAT) remains in place and an upper level weakness remains over the region. High PoPs and slightly decreased afternoon temperatures throughout. Daily threat for strong storms and localized flooding continues.

MARINE.

Seas look to be less than 2 feet through the period with generally light winds as well. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms stay in the forecast through the week with winds and seas higher in and around thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER.

Moisture will be on the increase which will keep fire concerns low the next few days. After today, expect lower mixing heights and an increased potential for patchy fog in the mornings.

HYDROLOGY.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the week with widespread coverage expected across the area. Generally one to three of rainfall inches is expected but that will be basin average amounts. Thunderstorms will be moving slowly and will be efficient rain producers. While river flooding is not expected, localized flooding is possible.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 74 94 74 92 73 / 20 70 40 80 30 Panama City 79 92 78 91 77 / 10 50 30 70 30 Dothan 74 94 73 94 73 / 60 70 30 70 30 Albany 74 94 74 94 74 / 60 70 40 80 30 Valdosta 74 92 73 90 73 / 60 80 40 90 30 Cross City 75 93 74 91 73 / 20 60 30 70 30 Apalachicola 78 91 77 90 76 / 10 50 30 60 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . IG3 SHORT TERM . Johnstone LONG TERM . Johnstone AVIATION . IG3 MARINE . Johnstone FIRE WEATHER . Johnstone HYDROLOGY . Johnstone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi50 min WNW 8 G 9.9 85°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)76°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi116 min WSW 6 G 8 85°F 1016 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi50 min N 7 G 11 88°F 88°F1016.3 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi57 minNE 410.00 miLight Rain76°F73°F91%1018.2 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi54 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLD

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3S3S4S5S4S5CalmCalmS4S3S4S5SW4CalmNW343333Calm3CalmNE4
1 day agoS4CalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W35344NE4N4CalmCalm
2 days agoS3S5CalmS4CalmCalmCalmS4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmS73S7S11
G16
S7S7S5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:30 AM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:14 PM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.31.82.42.8332.82.421.61.31.11.21.41.82.22.52.62.62.42.11.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.