Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:30PM Thursday February 27, 2020 8:47 AM EST (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 10:07PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 210 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020 /110 Am Cst Thu Feb 27 2020/
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est /noon cst/ this afternoon...
Today..Northwest 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming light and variable winds early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 210 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis.. A small craft advisory remains in effect through this morning as winds are around 20 knots with seas up to 8 feet possible. Small craft should exercise caution still this afternoon after the advisory expires. Northwest winds remain elevated around 15 knots through Saturday night before shifting to the south and remaining around 10 to 15 knots. Dry weather across the waters is expected through the forecast period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 271138 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 638 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions with unlimited CIGS through the TAF cycle. Winds will be from the northwest 10 to 15 knots this morning diminishing in the afternoon 10 knots or less.

PREV DISCUSSION [220 AM EST].

NEAR TERM [Today].

A broad upper level trough will cover the CONUS along and east of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along or just off the Texas coast. This will a keep a northerly low level flow across the local area. Despite maximum insolation under sunny skies, high temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Night].

Surface high pressure encompassing most of the central and southern U.S. along with a broad upper trough will keep the local area dry and cool through the short term. Sunny and clear skies will prevail with highs Fri and Sat in the low 60s. Lows tonight will be the coldest of the week with most areas below freezing except for the immediate coast. Lows warm briefly Friday night. A secondary cold front moves through on Saturday on the backside of the upper trough but no rain or clouds are expected, just lows Saturday night a degree or two cooler than Friday night, in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday].

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft remains in control of the local weather at least through Tuesday. At the same time, a deep upper trough will be digging into Mexico with shortwaves riding southwest to northeast ahead of it and weak surface lows developing. Clouds locally will increase in the west ahead of it beginning on Sunday. Rain will overspread these shortwaves and the influence of a ridge centered over the Gulf will keep our area dry through Monday night. A few showers may make it into SE Al Tues and Tues night. The ridge breaks down on Wednesday with a cold front and associated rainfall moving across the region. Yesterday, the GFS and ECMWF were in great agreement but today the GFS is about 6-12 hours slower than the ECMWF with the front passage. The ECMWF also stalls the front, with rain all day Wednesday and much of Thursday. The GFS brings it through Wed evening and sweeps through overnight. Have generally left the blended POPs but lowered them significantly for Thursday.

The ridge will allow temps to rebound with temps Sunday in the upper 60s and warming to the upper 70s for Wed and slightly cooler Thu. Lows Sun night warm to the lower 40s to lower 50s and into the 60s by Tue night. With the front passing, lows will only cool to the 50s Wed night.

MARINE.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this morning as winds are around 20 knots with seas up to 8 feet possible. Small craft should exercise caution still this afternoon after the advisory expires. Northwest winds remain elevated around 15 knots through Saturday night before shifting to the south and remaining around 10 to 15 knots. Dry weather across the waters is expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER.

Aside from high afternoon dispersions today and Friday, there are no fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY.

Rainfall has ended over the area and no rain is forecast again until Wednesday.

The greatest area of concern over the next 2-3 days is across the Lower Apalachicola River Basin in Gulf County. The crest from Blountstown earlier this week has now reached Wewahitchka. Similarly, runoff from the recent rains down the Chipola in Southern Calhoun County is beginning to impact the Wewahitchka area. This will result in continued moderate flooding at Wewahitchka through the remainder of the week. Further downstream near the Sumatra gauge, flooding at Howard Creek in Gulf County will continue to markedly increase as the flood wave reaches that area. The gauge in this area is already near moderate stage and looks to continue to rise.

Elsewhere across the region, the Flint River has crested at Albany and has dropped below flood stage. The peak crest wave is not quite to Newton, but should be arriving there today and at Bainbridge by Friday. This will put Bainbridge into moderate flood.

Because of the incoming water from the Flint - and additional inflows into the Chattahoochee River from further upstream, the pool at Lake Seminole is rising, so expect releases from Woodruff to possibly be increased this weekend, not as high as earlier this week, but certainly enough to put Blountstown back above the 22 ft level late in the weekend or early next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 57 31 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 57 39 62 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 54 31 60 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 53 32 59 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 55 32 60 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 59 34 60 41 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 57 38 59 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . Barry SHORT TERM . LN LONG TERM . LN AVIATION . Barry MARINE . LN FIRE WEATHER . Barry HYDROLOGY . LN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi107 min NNW 4.1 G 6 42°F 1022.6 hPa (+2.2)34°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi113 min NNW 6 G 8 41°F 1022.4 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi53 min WNW 8 G 13 48°F 59°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair41°F30°F67%1023.3 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi51 minWNW 510.00 miFair40°F29°F67%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLD

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S10S9S113CalmCalm33--355--33------------CalmCalm
1 day agoS9S8S8S9S11S9S7S554S44S845S6S9S10SW33S7S4CalmCalm
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S8S6S6S10W3S7S5S5SE4S4N3E3SE9SE7S7

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:45 AM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:51 PM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:28 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.52.22.62.72.521.30.70.30.10.30.91.62.32.832.72.21.60.90.40.10.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.