Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:40PM Monday June 21, 2021 4:04 AM EDT (08:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:25PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 159 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021 /1259 Am Cdt Mon Jun 21 2021/
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable winds. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 159 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis.. Southerly winds around 15 knots at times through Wednesday with a frontal boundary to the north of the waters, along with seas 2 to 3 feet. This frontal boundary will dissipate with winds expected to become light easterly on Thursday and Friday, with seas coming down to 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunder storms each day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 210700 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

. RENEWED FLOODING THREAT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY .

NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight].

While there was a short break in precipitation overnight, a wet pattern will return for the near term as a shortwave moves across the region. This will help to enhance precipitation today and PoPs are in the 50-80% range. A few very light showers can already be noted on radar this morning across our western marine area and activity will increase and spread across the land areas through the day. The aforementioned shortwave, combined with an approaching trough, will allow convection to continue through tonight and PoPs remain in the 40-80% range.

With numerous showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, including multiple waves of activity, the main hazard in the near term will be localized flooding, mainly in urban areas. While thunderstorms are expected today, instability overall appears to be on the lower side and will limit severe potential.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday].

Active period of weather with a renewed flooding threat beginning early Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. A northern stream shortwave trough and associated cold front will approach Tuesday and stall over the region on Wednesday. Precipitable Water values will be around 2.1 in., above the 90th climatological percentile. Lifting mechanisms for this moist air mass include an anomalous 30 knot low-level jet in advance of the front and the area within the right-rear quadrant of the upper jet. Heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding will increase Tuesday and Wednesday, w/ some riverine flooding also possible thereafter. The Hydrology section at the bottom of this discussion has all the details.

Cannot rule out some strong thunderstorms as well given the wind fields, but the lack of instability points to a marginal severe thunderstorm potential at best. The main concern will be isolated damaging wind gusts in storms.

It will be unseasonably cool on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the cloud cover with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday].

A return to a more typical summertime pattern late this week into early next week. The mean layer 1000-700 hPa flow is expected to be light and variable on Thursday, with the highest Pops invof the I-10 corridor up to 50 pct. Much the same is expected on Friday and Saturday with low to mid-level light SE flow. For Sunday and Monday, the flow is expected to become more easterly, with highest Pops of 40 pct mainly from the FL Big Bend coast into the western panhandle and SE Alabama. Temperatures will moderate to normal this weekend into early next week to around 90 degrees inland.

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Tuesday]

While initially radar is quiet this morning, convection is expected to increase through the morning around the ECP area and expand north and east. Multiple rounds of activity is expected during the day and even into tonight and confidence in timing at each TAF site is low.

MARINE.

Southerly winds around 15 knots at times through Wednesday with a frontal boundary to the north of the waters, along with seas 2 to 3 feet. This frontal boundary will dissipate with winds expected to become light easterly on Thursday and Friday, with seas coming down to 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunder storms each day.

FIRE WEATHER.

A wet pattern is expected over the next few days as a disturbance that will move across the region today brings increased moisture and rain chances to the region. The chance for precipitation will be further enhanced tomorrow as a cold front approaches the region. With this wet pattern, there are no fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY.

Antecedent conditions are very moist with rainfall over the past 7 days, largely attributable to TS Claudette, ranging from 2 to 4 inches south of I-10 and west of the Flint River. In this area, there are pockets of 5 to 10 inch rainfall in Bay, Gulf, Liberty, Randolph, and Calhoun Counties. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are possible beginning late Monday Night through Wednesday, with the highest deterministic forecast amounts of 2-4 inches expected over the FL Big Bend and Panhandle into SE Alabama, which could lead to some poor drainage flooding. But higher end amounts could be 4-7 inches over this period, which would increase the potential for flash flooding.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 85 72 81 71 85 / 60 70 90 60 80 Panama City 83 75 83 74 85 / 70 80 80 60 70 Dothan 85 71 80 70 84 / 50 80 90 70 80 Albany 88 72 82 72 85 / 60 70 90 60 60 Valdosta 86 72 81 70 85 / 60 60 80 60 80 Cross City 85 74 84 73 86 / 60 40 60 40 60 Apalachicola 84 75 82 75 85 / 60 70 70 50 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ early this morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Fieux SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . LF AVIATION . Fieux MARINE . LF FIRE WEATHER . Fieux HYDROLOGY . LF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi65 min WSW 9.9 G 11 81°F 1015.5 hPa (-1.5)75°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi131 min WSW 8.9 G 11 80°F 1015 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi47 min SW 7 G 13 82°F 82°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi72 minSSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds75°F72°F90%1015.5 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi69 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F71°F87%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLD

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
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Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     1.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.82.521.61.41.41.72.12.63.13.43.43.22.61.91.10.4-0.1-0.200.61.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Rock Islands, Florida
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Rock Islands
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Mon -- 12:12 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     1.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:39 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.82.52.11.71.41.41.72.12.63.13.43.53.22.721.10.4-0.1-0.200.61.32.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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