Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 4:13 AM   Moonset 4:57 PM

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GMZ636 Expires:202405061515;;698782 Fzus54 Kmob 060228 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 928 pm cdt Sun may 5 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-061515- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 928 pm cdt Sun may 5 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 5 knots late this evening, becoming light and variable, then becoming southeast around 5 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Patchy fog. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Monday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 928 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 060121 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 921 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Additional patchy fog was added to the weather grids through the evening and early morning hours for Monday. This was the only change made to the forecast this evening as the rest of the forecast remains on track.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Main highlights:

1) Slightly increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.

2) Hot weather expected through mid-week, especially Wednesday and Thursday, with very warm overnight temperatures.

3) Severe weather is possible on Friday from a passing front.

4) Weekend cooldown behind the front.

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Today's slight ridging shifts eastward tonight as another weak shortwave trough moves across the Southeast US Monday. Storms this afternoon will be few and far between, primarily along the sea breeze, given the drier air in place. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight and early Monday morning, primarily in the FL Panhandle and southeast AL. With the slight boost from the shortwave, a few more showers and storms will be possible on Monday, mostly across southern Georgia and the FL Big Bend with the highest chances near the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River. Given good instability, DCAPE around 600-900 J/kg and a little bit of shear in the presence of the shortwave, can't rule out some gusty winds and perhaps some small hail in the stronger storms. Lows tonight will be in the upper half of the 60s with highs tomorrow near 90 in most spots.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Very warm weather defines the short-term period thanks to a building subtropical ridge from the SW Gulf. Large-scale subsidence should mostly suppress convection. When combined with mid-level height rises, temperatures should soar to around 90 away from the immediate coast. A persistent onshore flow keeps a muggy airmass in place, so expect unseasonable overnight/early morning warmth when low temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s are forecast. These readings are anywhere from about 8-12 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Mid-level heights continue rising as ridging further builds across the region. Models suggest 500-mb heights increasing from to the 586- 588 dm range Wednesday-Thursday, which is around the 75th percentile, per SPC sounding climo for KTLH. This patterns favors greater warmth than earlier in the week with inland forecast highs in the low 90s and heat indices a few degrees higher. There may be some cooling relief from showers/thunderstorms on Thursday mainly north of the FL state line from a northern stream upper trough pushing a front across the Appalachians.

Attention turns to severe weather potential on Friday as the front pushes through the Tri-State area. The environment should be moist, unstable, and sheared with favorable upper & lower-level support.
Although we are not under any SPC risk, there is a large 15% area over the East-Central US in the Day 4 Outlook. If trends continue, then at least a Marginal (level 1 of 5) could be introduced for tomorrow's Day 3. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws near. By Saturday, we are looking at improved weather as we go post frontal with a much welcomed cooldown in store for us.

High temperatures drop from the mid/upper 80s on Friday to upper 70s/low 80s on Saturday. Widespread 70s for overnight lows are on tap through Friday, then drop to the upper 50s/low 60s next weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Guidance continues to indicate fog overnight (much like the past few nights) with an overwhelming majority showing LIFR from ECP- TLH. Last night didnt get quite as low as forecast but will reduce vsbys to IFR from 08-13Z and watch trends for amendments or lower further on the 06Z TAFs. VFR at the other sites overnight into Monday morning. Have PROB30 for TSRA at ABY-VLD that may develop as a weak trough moves by and seabreeze activates during the late afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting southerly winds around 8 kts with 1-2 ft seas and a dominant period of 6 seconds this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Continued favorable boating conditions expected into late this coming week with persistent south to southeast winds 10 knots or less and 2 to 3 feet seas. Daily seabreezes usher an onshore wind along the immediate nearshore waters. By Friday, a frontal system pushes into the region, bringing returning chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas respond ahead of this feature by approaching cautionary levels out of the southwest. Northerly breezes at 15 to 20 knots then arrive in the front's wake on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Generally south to southwest transport winds of 10-15 mph are expected over the next several days across the area. Mixing heights will top out around 4,500-5,500 feet Monday afternoon, then around 5,500-7,000 feet Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
This will result in high dispersions in southeast Alabama Monday, then across the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible Monday afternoon, primarily across southern Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Minimal rainfall expected over the next few days outside of localized pockets from isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The next chance for greater coverage of meaningful rain is Friday when a frontal system pushes through the region. The latest Day 5 QPF from WPC generally paints a half inch or less across the Tri-State area, but higher amounts in the 1-2 inch range are focused over Central MS/AL/GA. These values may slide southward in subsequent forecasts.

In terms of rivers, Aucilla - Lamont, St Marks Newport, and a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue to trend downward. There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 89 68 90 / 0 20 0 10 Panama City 70 84 71 85 / 0 10 0 10 Dothan 67 89 68 90 / 10 20 0 10 Albany 68 89 68 90 / 10 30 10 10 Valdosta 67 89 67 90 / 10 40 10 10 Cross City 67 88 67 89 / 10 40 10 10 Apalachicola 71 81 72 81 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Monday for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Sun -- 04:12 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM CDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:56 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
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West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Sun -- 01:05 AM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:01 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:55 PM CDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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