Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:48PM Monday December 16, 2019 1:04 AM CST (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:29PMMoonset 11:27AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ636 Expires:201912160945;;853414 Fzus54 Kmob 160331 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 930 Pm Cst Sun Dec 15 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz635-636-160945- Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 930 Pm Cst Sun Dec 15 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 10 am cst Monday...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog in the evening, then widespread dense fog after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Waves around 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 930 Pm Cst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis..Light to moderate southerly flow will persist through Monday night ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Dense sea fog is also expected over the bays and near shore waters late tonight into early Monday morning. Strong northerly flow will then take hold in the wake of the cold front Tuesday afternoon. Gusts to gale force are also possible over the open gulf waters Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Thus, a small craft advisory will likely be needed beginning Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 160553 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1253 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Tuesday]

IFR ceilings will impact ECP and DHN through the night. Visibility restrictions will likely bounce between MVFR and IFR at TLH and ABY through the night, while VLD may drop to MVFR closer to sunrise. Shortly after sunrise restrictions will clear through the day, with low ceilings returning towards the end of the TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION [640 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

High pressure is centered off the Atlantic coast with deep southerly flow across the southeast. Weather conditions will be quiet overnight with the potential for patchy fog and a few clouds moving into the western portion of the CWA late tonight. With the deep southerly flow, low temps will only fall into the upper 40s to upper 50s tonight.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night].

A couple opportunities for thunderstorms exist late Monday night into Tuesday morning, and again Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong.

An ongoing squall line/Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) associated with a cold front is modeled to approach the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This system should be weakening w/ limited instability, and stronger forcing for ascent increasingly displaced poleward. However, there is some model disagreement with regard to the amount of instability, with a few hundred joules of CAPE possible. If this is realized, combined with Bulk Shear (0-6 km) near 50 knots, a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible mainly west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers.

This system will continue to translate eastward as the cold frontal passage follows to the west. There is some potential for it to regenerate east of the Flint River into the eastern FL Big Bend, coincident with peak daytime heating, if the current timing holds. Across this area during the afternoon/ evening, a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible as well.

Overall, confidence is lower in terms of the timing of the aforementioned line and impacts, given the uncertainty with the amount of instability. Despite the confidence levels, the severe threat remains limited.

Otherwise, increasing cloudiness Monday with a slight chance of showers over far western areas. A drying trend takes hold Tuesday night.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday].

High pressure will build in behind the front with dry conditions through the week. Differences continue between the models for next weekend. While both the GFS and ECMWF bring a cut-off low into the south next weekend, the ECMWF is much slower with the system. Either way, enough for a low end chance of the precipitation for the weekend.

MARINE.

Exercise caution conditions will be possible over the offshore waters tonight into Monday. A frontal system will move through Tuesday with strong northerly winds and advisory level conditions Tuesday through Wednesday night. Although wind speeds will decrease, exercise caution conditions may linger in the offshore waters into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER.

Dry weather continues through Monday but mixing heights will be lower and only top around to around 1500 to 2000ft. Winds will also be gusty with transport winds around 20 to 25 mph out of the S-SE. Rain and thunderstorms move west to east Monday night through Tuesday with the area drying out west to east by Tuesday evening.

HYDROLOGY.

The next chance of rain will be Monday night into Tuesday as a front moves through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will be around one inch or less. Widespread flooding is not expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 75 61 74 39 55 / 10 40 80 30 0 Panama City 75 64 72 39 54 / 10 70 90 10 0 Dothan 75 61 68 35 50 / 10 70 90 0 0 Albany 75 62 70 37 53 / 0 60 90 10 0 Valdosta 77 60 75 40 54 / 0 30 80 50 0 Cross City 78 59 78 44 58 / 0 10 60 60 10 Apalachicola 73 65 72 41 54 / 20 50 80 30 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Fieux SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . Fieux AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . LF/Scholl FIRE WEATHER . LN HYDROLOGY . Fieux


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi52 min ESE 18 G 21 64°F 64°F1018.6 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi52 min ESE 7 G 9.9 63°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi46 min S 8.9 G 13 69°F 60°F1017.3 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 85 mi52 min SSE 8 G 8.9 64°F 63°F1019.9 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-County Airport, FL19 mi66 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F55°F90%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1J0

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmE6--S5S7S9S8S7S4CalmSE6SE6SE5SE3SE4S5
1 day agoCalm4--6CalmCalm3Calm4443NW6333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE7NE6NE5NE4NE6N4NE6NE7NE6NE6E73E5NE5N5NE4E6E4E4NW4CalmCalmE4W3

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM CST     1.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:26 PM CST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.61.51.41.10.90.60.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.20.10.30.60.811.2

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM CST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:25 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:30 PM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.20.90.60.3-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.20.40.50.70.91.11.21.31.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.