Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 6:32 AM CDT (11:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:57AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ636 Expires:202005272130;;823787 Fzus54 Kmob 270921 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 421 Am Cdt Wed May 27 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz635-636-272130- Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 421 Am Cdt Wed May 27 2020
Today..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 421 Am Cdt Wed May 27 2020
Synopsis..Light to at times moderate onshore winds are expected through Friday, with little change in seas. A cold front will cross area waters Friday night into Saturday, bringing light to moderate offshore winds for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 271052 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 652 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Thursday]

MVFR and IFR ceilings are widespread across the region this morning. From time-to-time, visibilities will drop into the MVFR range in light rain or drizzle. Light rain and low ceilings will gradually spread north and scatter through the morning, with scattered showers and storms filling in behind. The best chance for storms will be at DHN and ABY late this afternoon through the evening.

PREV DISCUSSION [329 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

An upper-level cutoff low will meander over the Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. A large area of deep layer forcing for ascent will focus over LA/S MS/S AL and trigger convection in an area of complex surface boundary interactions including a synoptic front, the afternoon seabreezes, and mesoscale/outflow boundaries. Steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear around 25-30kts, combined with the forecast instability, will be plenty to result in scattered robust and sometimes organized thunderstorm development. Deep layer SW flow will advect discrete and/or clusters of storms eastward into our Panhandle, AL, and SW GA counties late this afternoon into the evening hours. The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds, but the potential exists for severe hail as well (especially on the western fringes of our Panhandle and AL counties). Elsewhere, a more isolated threat for typical summertime severe storms exists. Storm initiation is expected to focus along the seabreeze/differential heating boundary in an area with more shallow lapse rates and warmer mid-level temperatures. However, more typical summertime indicators suggest a least a low-end threat for isolated wet-microbursts. Coverage will generally be lower across the Big Bend and south-central GA than further west. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s across north Florida, and the low to mid 80s further north.

Convection will gradually come to an end through the late evening, with low clouds expected to fill in once again overnight. Lows will fall into the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday].

The upper low will be centered over Arkansas Thursday morning and gradually open up during the day with the trough axis moving east to a position just west of our CWA by late Friday. Surface high pressure will ridge across the Florida peninsula from the western Gulf. The deep south to southwest flow will bring abundant tropical moisture into our region along with upper level energy rounding the base of the upper low and trough to keep a wet pattern in place. Some of the rain could be heavy at times, especially on Friday. Pops both days will be justifiably high in the likely to categorical range (60-80%). Despite the extensive cloud cover and high rain chances, max temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 80s to around 90. Lows Thursday night will be around 70.

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday].

The upper level trough will continue to move eastward and off the southeast U.S. coast by Saturday night. Deep layer ridging and a much drier airmass will filter into the region through the remainder of the weekend into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows generally in the upper 60s.

MARINE.

Winds will mostly be from the east to south 10 knots or less with seas 2 feet or less through the period.

FIRE WEATHER.

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

HYDROLOGY.

Local rivers are mostly steady. A wet pattern will be in place through the end of this week with periods of heavy rain possible, especially on Friday. After that, we will see mostly dry conditions beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 87 73 89 69 87 / 40 10 60 20 60 Panama City 84 75 86 73 85 / 20 10 50 30 60 Dothan 84 71 87 69 85 / 50 50 60 30 70 Albany 83 72 87 71 86 / 50 50 70 30 70 Valdosta 86 72 89 70 87 / 40 20 70 30 80 Cross City 87 73 91 71 90 / 20 10 50 20 60 Apalachicola 82 75 85 73 83 / 20 10 50 20 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . Barry LONG TERM . Barry AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . Barry FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . Barry


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 7 71°F 78°F1012.9 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi44 min ENE 4.1 G 8 75°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi44 min SSE 5.1 G 7 76°F 82°F1012.5 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 85 mi44 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 71°F 78°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-County Airport, FL19 mi94 minN 010.00 miOvercast70°F68°F93%1008.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1J0

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E4--NE45E8E10NE9NE9E6E8----CalmE5CalmCalmCalmNE54NE5NE4E3Calm
1 day agoE3E4E7E7E8
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G27
SE5SE3CalmCalmNE4CalmNE3NE3N3NE4NE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE5E5NE75E6SE46Calm3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:21 AM CDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:33 PM CDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.60.91.21.41.61.81.91.91.81.71.51.310.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:22 AM CDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:02 PM CDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.60.811.31.51.71.71.71.61.51.31.10.70.40.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.