Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 4:46PM Friday November 27, 2020 10:34 PM CST (04:34 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 4:46AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ636 Expires:202011281545;;505566 Fzus54 Kmob 280331 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 931 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz635-636-281545- Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 931 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020
Rest of tonight..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog late in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Chance of showers late in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 18 to 23 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 931 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis..Light onshore flow will shift to offshore overnight as a cold front moves south over the gulf. Moderate to strong onshore flow returns by Sunday as a system approaches from the west. Flow becomes moderate to strong offshore Sunday night as a cold front crosses area waters. Winds weaken mid week as surface high pressure passes over the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 280127 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 827 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

UPDATE.

No significant changes were made to the forecast for tonight during the evening update. With rain moving in from the west there is some uncertainty about if the fog will be dense tonight. The best potential for dense fog overnight will be in the Florida Counties and near Valdosta.

PREV DISCUSSION [716 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Saturday].

In the wake of Thursday's frontal passage, another low pressure system is setting up along the northern Gulf Coast states. Moving east from the Lower Mississippi Valley, this low pressure system will put our region in the warm sector overnight which will lead to another round of widespread dense fog. As the cold front progresses through our region into the early afternoon hours on Saturday, we should continue to see rain showers providing much needed precipitation to the region. Rain activity is expected to wind down throughout the afternoon, with our eastern counties receiving the tail end of the precip. Post-frontal passage we'll be under quiet conditions for a few hours until the next low pressure system comes through on Sunday. Overnight lows in the mid 60s with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s are expected.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night].

A strong shortwave is forecast to move through the MS/TN/OH Valleys through the weekend. There are still some differences between deterministic guidance on how far south the low will track, and thus how strong and far southeast the surface low will track as well. This does have some implications on the positioning and strength of the low-level wind field, but there's quite a bit of confidence that this will be a dynamic system as it moves through the Southeast. In addition to the strength of the deep- layer wind field, a scattering of hodographs depict quite a bit of veering flow with height ahead of the frontal boundary. Typically, we lack the instability to make this a slam-dunk severe weather event. Instead we'll have to wait for many of the finer details that go into whether instability is available to work themselves out between the various global and hires models. A lot will depend on how far inland the warm front is able to penetrate in advance of the front, and how much stabilizing rainfall we get ahead of the more dynamic part of the storm. Based on trends and the current model cycle, there's a greater amount of confidence that the setup will favor at least an isolated severe storm or two, the low confidence aspect is how widespread the threat could be and how far inland it will spread into AL and GA. The primary hazards with this system will be tornadoes and damaging winds. While the threat could start as early as Sunday evening across the Panhandle, there's greater confidence that the best and more widespread potential will be as the cold front moves across the region through Sunday night. Strong CAA immediately behind the front will drive temperatures down into the upper 40s in locations where the front is able to clear.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday].

The main forecast interest in the extended forecast is the blast of Arctic air forecast to arrive behind the strong cold front. Monday will feature a large temp gradient across the region with upper 60s in the southeast Big Bend and middle 50s for highs in southeast Alabama and southwest GA. Once skies clear and the ridge begins to settle in, lows will fall to the lower 30s on Monday night, struggle to climb out of the 50s on Tuesday, and then our coldest night will feature upper 20s across much of our AL/GA counties on Tuesday night. Thereafter a gradual moderating of temperatures is expected - returning us to near normal by the end of the week when our next frontal system is slated to arrive.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Sunday]

A messy TAF cycle is in store. Although conds are mostly VFR early this evening, restrictions are expected over the next few hrs. Rain/showers are forecast to begin impacting DHN/ECP in the 3-5Z timeframe, which are likely to produce MVFR cigs/vsbys. Meanwhile, patchy fog/mist appears to develop at TLH/VLD before SHRA/RA affects the eastern 3 terminals overnight. A MVFR PROB30 (18-24Z) for TSRA at ECP/TLH/VLD was added to account for possible trailing convection across the SE 1/2 of the forecast area this afternoon.

MARINE.

Winds and seas will remain relatively light through Saturday before increasing to Advisory levels along and behind a strong frontal system on Sunday. Advisory conditions will continue through Tuesday, falling below headline levels by Tuesday night. Severe weather will be possible with the frontal passage Sunday/Sunday night.

FIRE WEATHER.

Red Flag conditions are not expected in the foreseeable future. Periods of rain should continue through Sunday night, with the potential for severe thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours.

HYDROLOGY.

Widespread average rain amounts of 1-3" with Sunday's frontal system are not expected to cause flash or river flooding across the region. There is the potential for localized areas to receive 4-6" and should this impact an urban location or a flashy basin it could pose minor flooding troubles. Otherwise, a stretch of dry conditions is expected through much of next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 65 73 61 72 53 / 60 60 20 60 70 Panama City 67 75 64 74 51 / 60 60 30 80 80 Dothan 62 71 58 68 47 / 80 50 30 90 80 Albany 62 70 58 68 51 / 80 60 20 80 80 Valdosta 63 70 58 71 55 / 60 70 10 50 60 Cross City 63 76 61 77 60 / 20 40 10 20 70 Apalachicola 67 75 64 74 53 / 50 60 20 60 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . McD NEAR TERM . Oliver SHORT TERM . Harrigan LONG TERM . Harrigan AVIATION . IG3 MARINE . Harrigan FIRE WEATHER . Oliver HYDROLOGY . Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi47 min ESE 6 G 7 71°F 72°F1017.5 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi47 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi47 min Calm G 0 72°F 69°F1017.3 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 85 mi47 min Calm G 0 70°F 69°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-County Airport, FL19 mi2.6 hrsN 010.00 miFair68°F66°F93%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1J0

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmE4S33W3----CalmCalmCalmS3Calm--Calm
1 day agoSE5--S3CalmS6S5S5S4CalmS5S5SW6S7--SW6----CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm--E5CalmE6--S10
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Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:45 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:19 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:11 AM CST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.60.50.30.30.20.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.11.21.31.31.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:57 AM CST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:45 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:19 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:43 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:03 PM CST     1.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current



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