Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 1:00 AM   Moonset 11:10 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 301758 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Low clouds continue to spread and push from to the middle Texas coast into our local area as of 3 AM. Surface observations are showing a southeasterly wind flow of 5 to 10 MPH with gusts as high as 23 MPH along the Rio Grande. Fog development is not a concern this morning for the most part as long as the wind stays up, which looks to be the case. However, can't rule out a few locations with patchy fog especially the escarpment by daybreak. Otherwise, cloudy skies are forecast for the morning period with partly cloudy skies dominating the local area this afternoon. High temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s across the eastern two-thirds of South Central Texas with low 90s along the Rio Grande. Shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to be limited today especially during the morning hours. Once the afternoon period arrives, the potential for a shower or storm to develop is there with best chances across the Coastal Plains. Another area with a slight potential for an isolated shower or storm is the western half of Val Verde County as strong to severe storms form ahead of the dry-line.
Any shower or storm activity that manages to develop comes to an end this evening.

Clouds return tonight into Wednesday with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Patchy fog is forecast for the Hill Country and along the I- 35 corridor overnight into Wednesday morning. Clouds linger around all day on Wednesday with highs in the 80s for the most part.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most areas but especially along and east of Highway 281 on Wednesday afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe with main threats being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Also, stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours in a short period of time with pwats around 1.8 inches based on forecast soundings and induced minor street flooding and over poor drainage areas.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing by Wednesday evening over parts of our area due to the approach of an upper level shortwave, as well as off a dryline in western Texas and Serranias del Burro of Mexico. They will likely become organized into clusters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, although a few supercells can still be expected. They will be fed by a strengthening moist southerly low level jet while steered to the east by the flow aloft. Forecast soundings show high CAPE and ample shear for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds possible. Above seasonal normal PWS indicate a potential for heavy rains where cells train or stall.

As they move off to the east, the airmass may stabilize on Thursday.
However, heating, a weak mid level impulse passing overhead, the dryline into Val Verde County, and perhaps leftover surface boundaries should generate showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into evening.

The forecast remains somewhat uncertain with respect to the coverage and timing of showers and thunderstorms for Friday through Sunday.
The latest (30/00Z) model suite has trended to keeping the frontal impacts out of our area. Meanwhile, a series of mid level impulses move over our area in a westerly flow aloft. In addition, there is the dryline in western Texas and flow up the Serranias del Burro of Mexico. These features along with heating should generate slight to low chances of showers and thunderstorms. Can't rule out a strong to severe storm or two, as well as locally heavy downpours each day.

Early next week, the Subtropical Ridge tries to gain some influence and combined with flow off the Mexican Plateau will lead to no POPs and warmer, summer like, temperatures. Otherwise, above normal temperatures prevail later this week through the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

MVFR ceilings are hanging in at DRT and AUS, but should lift to VFR within the next hour. All terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. Low ceilings will develop again overnight at all area airports and eventually drop to IFR. Wednesday morning will bring slow improvement. There is a chance for convection Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 70 84 72 85 / 0 50 60 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 84 71 84 / 0 50 50 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 85 72 86 / 0 50 50 40 Burnet Muni Airport 70 82 70 84 / 0 40 70 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 89 75 95 / 20 30 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 83 70 84 / 0 40 60 50 Hondo Muni Airport 70 85 70 85 / 10 40 50 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 84 71 85 / 0 50 50 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 84 73 84 / 0 40 40 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 84 72 85 / 0 50 50 40 Stinson Muni Airport 73 86 73 86 / 0 50 40 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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