Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bainbridge, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:20PM Friday August 14, 2020 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 3:57PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 922 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020 /822 Am Cdt Fri Aug 14 2020/
Today..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 922 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis.. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms will continue to linger through the weekend and early work week next week. Winds will generally remain out of the west to southwest at around 10 knots or less with chances for 10 to 15 knots possible today through Saturday. This will lead to seas between 1 to 2 feet for all nearshore and offshore waters. These winds and seas can be locally enhanced by shower and Thunderstorm activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bainbridge, GA
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location: 30.9, -84.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 141405 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1005 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

UPDATE.

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. Heavy rain in portions of Bay county early this morning has come to an end, but not before over 7.5 inches fell in a small area in the Panama City area. The 12z KTAE sounding shows a tropical environment in place with precipitable water values close to 2 inches. With southwesterly boundary layer flow today, expect sea breeze activity to push well inland this afternoon with scattered convection across the forecast area.

PREV DISCUSSION [651 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Much of the Southeast will remain under the influence of the approaching shortwave, which will result in broad area-wide synoptic scale ascent. At the surface this morning, strong moisture convergence is occurring along the Panhandle and adjacent Gulf waters as flow around the low-level ridge and the approaching area of low pressure merge. This axis of convergence is expected to gradually shift ESE through the morning and early afternoon as the ridge retreats and the low advances east. This is picked up on well by a few local CAMs which essentially depict today's convective evolution by (1) Convergence axis shifting east focusing storms away from the Panhandle and across the southeast Big Bend through the early afternoon hours (2) Scattered seabreeze convection developing later this afternoon along and north of interstate 10, moving north into S GA/SE AL (3) SW/NE oriented line of storms associated with the trough axis across the western Panhandle and SE AL late this afternoon/early evening. The most widespread convection and thus the highest PoPs will be this morning along the Panhandle coast and early this afternoon across the SE Big Bend. Elsewhere, and later, more scattered storms are expected to be forced along the aforementioned features. Expect highs around 90 to the low 90s, with heat indices around 100 degrees. Convection will shift back offshore (or along the adjacent coast) overnight, with lows falling into the middle 70s area-wide.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday].

An upper level trough currently stretched across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys is expected to sharpen and propagate eastward over northern/central Georgia by Saturday. Given our close proximity of the region to the aforementioned upper level trough, there will be significantly more upper level support for widespread shower and thunderstorm development on Saturday. With the broad upper level divergence coupled with PW values of well over 2 inches across the region, PoPs will be well above climatology with much of the area forecasted to have over 80% PoPs through the afternoon hours. With the enhanced probability of showers and thunderstorms, and ubiquitous amounts of moisture over the region, localized flooding will be a concerned if storm motion is slow or if storms train over the same areas repeatedly. With PW values possibly reaching 2.25 inches over the region, thunderstorms will be extremely efficient rain producers with areas experiencing heavy rain rates and localized flooding. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, while lows will fall into the low to mid 70s for much of the area.

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday].

The previously discussed upper level trough that is expected to impact the region on Saturday will continue to propagate eastward through Sunday and Sunday evening. Much of the region will be on the backside of this upper level trough through Monday. This will slightly lower the PoPs over the region to near climatology levels roughly (30-40%). Overall, with the lifting the aforementioned shortwave upper level trough over the region, the upper flow pattern enters a brief period of a quasi-relaxed state prior to what looks like a very wet pattern ahead starting next week. Starting next Wednesday, a shortwave trough is expected to dig south into the lower Mississippi valley, and become quasi- stationary through the remainder of the period. This pattern is likely attributed to and supported by the deep near stationary ridge that has established itself across the western Conus. Provided this trend in both the ECMWF and GFS continues, there is the likelihood for deep tropical low to mid level moisture to entrain itself across our region. This pattern may lead to future flooding concerns given its forecast potential to remain quasi- stationary just east of the region for several days. Both models also currently suggest the potential for a 30-40 knot 500mb jet to remain over the region during this time. This may lead to slightly stronger afternoon thunderstorms across the region with enhanced mid to upper level shear values. There still exists much uncertainty with this forecast as the pattern does not develop until next Wednesday; however, given that there is some model agreement suggests that a very wet pattern is likely ahead. High temperatures will generally remain in the low 90s and lows will remain in the mid 70s.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Saturday]

ECP will have the potential for periods of showers and possibly MVFR ceilings/visibilities this morning, otherwise VFR is expected through the TAF outside of storms. Showers and storms will be most likely at ECP this morning, then at VLD and DHN later this afternoon.

MARINE.

Isolated to Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger through the weekend and early work week next week. Winds will generally remain out of the west/southwest at around 10 knots or less with chances for 10-15 knots possible today through Saturday. This will lead to seas between 1-2 feet for all nearshore and offshore waters. These winds and seas can be locally enhanced by shower and thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER.

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days, with a wetter than usual pattern prevailing for the next couple of days.

HYDROLOGY.

Rainfall amounts over the next few days will generally be less than 2 inches for the area; however, with PW well over 2 inches, minor localized flooding may be possible. This includes ponding of water on roadways. Next weeks pattern looks extremely wet for the region with deep tropical moisture coupled with a quasi- stationary upper level trough to our west. This pattern can lead to training of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Details are still uncertain at this time; however, this will need to be watched closely as models hone in on a solution.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 90 74 90 74 93 / 50 20 80 30 50 Panama City 87 77 88 77 91 / 60 40 80 40 30 Dothan 89 73 89 72 93 / 50 20 90 20 30 Albany 91 74 90 74 93 / 40 30 90 20 30 Valdosta 90 74 89 73 91 / 60 20 90 20 50 Cross City 91 74 90 75 91 / 60 30 70 50 60 Apalachicola 87 78 88 77 91 / 50 40 80 50 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . DVD NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . Bunker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 60 mi105 min NW 4.1 G 7 77°F 1015.9 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 78 mi114 min SE 1.9 1018 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bainbridge, Decatur County Industrial Air Park Airport, GA6 mi44 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F73°F64%1015.9 hPa
Quincy Municipal Airport, FL21 mi44 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGE

Wind History from BGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SE4N8W7W4W3S5W3W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S8S9SW4SW5SW8SW7SW9W7
1 day agoN5SW5W5W4SW5W4W5S4S7S7SW7SW4W6SW5SW3CalmCalmSW4SW4W4SW4W5CalmN3
2 days agoSE4S10W9W6S8SW6CalmW5SW3S5SW3SW4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmE3NE5S4W4

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida
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St. Marks
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:54 AM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:29 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.62.52.32.1222.22.42.72.932.92.72.421.51.10.80.60.60.81.31.9

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks River Entrance, Florida (3) (expired 1984-12-31)
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St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:36 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:48 AM EDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:42 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.72.72.52.42.42.52.62.93.23.43.43.22.92.41.81.20.80.60.60.91.31.82.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.