Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kempner, TX

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Talking Points:

- Humidity surges back northward tonight through Tuesday - Low to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and night

Warm and dry conditions prevail this afternoon. The stalled front close to the coast will move back north as a warm front tonight, leading to a rapid return of low level moisture. Current dew points in the upper 30s to lower 50s will surge back into the mid 60s to low 70s by Tuesday morning. Low stratus will develop overnight, and a few showers can't be ruled out through the morning hours.

As low level warm air and moisture advection increases some deeper convection is possible across the Coastal Plains to near the I-35 corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening, and a few CAMs are developing isolated coverage of thunderstorms across these areas.
Farther west, dry line convection looks to develop late Tuesday afternoon across west Texas and the Trans Pecos, as well as in the higher terrain of Mexico. We will watch for this upstream convection to potentially make it into the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country Tuesday night. MLCAPE values of around 1500-200 J/kg coinciding with around 50-60KT of 0-6KM bulk shear across these regions Tuesday evening will support the risk for isolated severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. SPC has placed portions of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country in a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms.

Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings modifying into the 60s to low 70s with the return of the low level moisture, and high temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the 80s and muggy.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Talking Points:

- Good chances for rain and storms continue Wednesday through Friday.
- Coverage and QPF trends shifting to reduced chances and storm totals.

Some of the ECM and CMC runs of the past couple days have suggested 60-85 percent coverage of rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, so naturally the NBM favors the higher chances. We shaved off the PoPs for daytime Wednesday and Thursday, but this is mainly to account for what will likely be some MCV driven activity that typically results in more benign periods, and lower overall rainfall totals. Absent any significant MCV activity, the broad pattern of SW flow aloft over TX should favor at least some activity each 12 hour period Wednesday through daytime Friday, with a marginal severe and heavy rain potential each day. Late Friday should see the pattern aloft will trend to more ridge dominated with lowering chances for rain going into the weekend. The rain chances may not be zero and the deep onshore flow could continue to support a morning streamer shower as upper heights continue to build over TX into early next week. With the good humidity over the area, we should only have to deal with slightly above normal daytime temps.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A warm front will continue to lift northward and low-level moisture increases in response to the returning southeasterly flow. Expect quick development and expansion of low stratus overnight with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Patchy fog may also develop across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, and coastal plains.
With the moisture, low topped showers could establish from later this morning into the afternoon across central and eastern portions of the area. There is low confidence with placement and timing but isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity could develop later this afternoon through tonight. Elected to add in PROB30 groups with -TSRA and MVFR ceilings to cover this potential. Winds will generally remain light to moderate from the east-southeast and southeast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 88 69 84 69 / 20 40 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 68 84 68 / 20 40 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 68 84 69 / 30 40 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 87 67 82 68 / 20 50 60 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 70 85 72 / 30 40 20 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 68 83 68 / 20 40 60 30 Hondo Muni Airport 88 68 84 68 / 20 40 40 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 68 84 68 / 30 30 60 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 70 84 70 / 30 30 60 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 69 83 71 / 30 30 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 89 70 85 71 / 30 40 50 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.