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FXUS64 KEWX 022259 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 459 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Surface observations and satellite imagery reveal low clouds continue to erode from west to east, with the thicker cloud cover now east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. Satellite data also shows plenty of high clouds over the region embedded in the southwest flow aloft.
Some drier air can also be seen on surface observations with dewpoint temperatures down in the upper 30s across the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.

Some drier air in the low levels will continue to filter into the region overnight as high level clouds remain intact from the Winter Garden region eastward into the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor. Look for overnight lows in the upper 30s over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country to the mid 40s along and east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. High clouds continue into Sunday for areas mainly east of I-35 as afternoon highs warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s. The drier air and increased wind speeds in the afternoon hours on Sunday may bring some elevated fire weather conditions to areas generally along and north of a Rocksprings to Llano line. For Sunday night into early Monday morning, a weak frontal boundary will move in from the north bringing a northerly wind shift and drier air to the region.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

The Sunday night front, connected to a fast moving Central Plains upper trough, might bring a few wind gusts up to 20 mph early Monday, but winds quickly turn back to east then south late Monday as another fast moving upper trough enters the Midwest. This Midwest trough amplifies southward into the Mississippi River valley Tuesday, and that ushers in the next front which isn't too much stronger than the previous one. The pair of fronts collectively hold temperatures to near seasonal values through Wednesday.

Heights aloft build northward over the southern CONUS Thursday, allowing for a weak low latitude shortwave trough to move into TX.
Low level moisture should return by late Thursday and allow for some cloudiness to develop for Friday. Moisture depth is still shallow during this time, so there isn't a lot of model support for any meaningful rain chances with this low latitude disturbance. Perhaps a low chance of drizzle if anything.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

VFR conditions will continue through the period with only some upper level cloud cover streaming overhead. Winds are generally light out of the NW to begin the period and will remain that way through 03/1800Z before turning southwesterly and increasing to around 10 kts. No significant weather is forecast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 72 45 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 44 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 42 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 44 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 43 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 43 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 45 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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