Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 1:32 AM   Moonset 1:29 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 312331 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Unfortunately, there continues to be low confidence in the forecast through the short term regarding the timing and location of any additional showers and thunderstorms. CAMs continue to depict isolated to scattered convection developing this afternoon/evening, though there are large differences in where and when. Therefore, we'll be focusing our attention on some of the most likely areas for development which include a surface boundary approaching the northern Hill Country which is evident in airport observations and satellite imagery, a dryline that remains in west Texas, and the SDB Mountains in Mexico. Convection is already noted over the mountains, though any convection that develops along the aforementioned boundary will likely impact the area first due to its proximity.
Regardless of where and when storms develop, there remains a threat for a few severe thunderstorms as there is plenty of SBCAPE west and sufficient elevated instability remaining where storms moved through this morning. There remains plenty of effective bulk shear as well.
Large hail will be the main threat with storms today with a secondary threat for damaging wind gusts.

Any activity should diminish after sunset with generally quiet conditions overnight. Additional isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon, with a focus on the coastal plains during the afternoon associated with a weak 500mb disturbance, transitioning to western areas in the evening as dryline activity will attempt to push into the area.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Much of the upcoming week is largely expected to remain precipitation free along with above normal temperatures across all areas. Expect daytime highs to range from the lower 90s to near 103 degrees Sunday through Tuesday, with highs increasing into the mid 90s to 110 degrees for the remainder of the forecast period. Overnight lows will be warm as well, with 70s to near 80 for most locations. The NBM numbers looked too low and we have bumped these values up for the mid to late week period. With temperatures set to increase and recent rains helping to keep humidity levels up, we will likely see the return of heat headlines for a good portion of the upcoming work week.

We will keep a low chance for afternoon showers and storms in the forecast for Sunday across our far northern counties. The models indicate some weak lift embedded in the west/southwest flow aloft will move across the region. As we head into the middle to late portion of the forecast, the medium range models show the subtropical ridge building to our west, which would bring some northwest flow aloft to the region. These types of patterns to tend to favor late night/early morning MCS activity, but overall confidence in the details is low at this time.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will continue through 08-10Z before MVFR ceilings redevelop across much of South Central Texas. Low stratus should scatter and lift between 16-18Z tomorrow when VFR conditions return.
Expect any shower or thunderstorm activity to remain in the Hill Country this evening and have kept dry conditions at all sites.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but low confidence in placement and timing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 73 90 76 94 / 20 30 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 90 75 93 / 10 30 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 93 76 96 / 10 20 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 87 74 90 / 20 20 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 100 80 100 / 10 10 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 88 73 91 / 20 30 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 95 76 97 / 20 10 20 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 91 75 94 / 10 30 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 90 77 92 / 10 40 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 93 78 96 / 20 20 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 95 78 97 / 20 10 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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