Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buchanan Lake Village, TX

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:30PM Saturday November 28, 2020 10:45 AM CST (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:41PMMoonset 5:32AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buchanan Lake Village, TX
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location: 30.96, -98.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 281135 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 535 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

AVIATION. Rain showers extend from Del Rio (DRT) to south of Hondo (HDO) to Pleasanton (PEZ) east to Gonzales (T20) and La Grange (3T5). There have been a few embedded thunderstorms through the morning hours and this trend will continue through the day: prevailing rain showers with vicinity thunder. Ceilings have stayed mostly MVFR so far, with lower ceilings and visby limited to the heavier showers. Think rain will start to spread over the I-35 terminals by mid morning, so IFR cigs and MVFR visby will take over at AUS/SAT/SSF. In the heavier showers LIFR ceilings with 2SM visby will be possible. By this afternoon at DRT and this evening for the I-35 terminals precipitation should start to decrease and ceilings will slowly start to improve from IFR to MVFR. AUS should be the last of the terminals to improve to MVFR, and is the only one of the 4 TAFS to not indicate VFR by the end of the TAF period. Winds through the period will be northerly and gusty at times to between 12kts and 15kts.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 322 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday) . As of 2:30 am light to moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms extend from near Crystal City to San Antonio, Gonzales, and Hallettsville. This band of showers is part of the WSW flow aloft of Pacific moisture that extends into the southeast US ahead of a large upper level low evident on the GOES Water vapor imagery over New Mexico. The front that moved through earlier in the day is well south of the area and is now a non-factor, but it has ensured that any of the thunderstorms that do form today will be elevated essentially ending the threat for any of them to be on the strong side. That means the hazards for today will transition to purely moderate to heavy rainfall. Through the day today the large upper low till track from New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle while the associated surface low tracks along the middle and upper Texas Coast. This surface low will help to enhance instability and lift along the Coastal Plains and serve as the focus for the heaviest precipitation today. Models are in good agreement that the highest rainfall totals will be focused along the Coastal Plains today, which includes places like Kenedy, Cuero, and Hallettsville in our CWA. As much as 2-3 additional inches are possible from now through the early overnight hours when precipitation will finally clear these areas. Further north along the I-35 corridor 1-2 is still possible. Locally higher amounts can be expected with the heavier showers, so one or two places seeing up to 4 inches of rain today is not out of the question. With how dry everything has been most of this will serve as light to moderate rain off and on throughout the day benefiting the dry and drought conditions we have seen of late. Some minor flooding impacts, including pondering on roadways is possible, especially in areas of prolonged rain today. With afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s and rain expected to last for much of the day it will be a good day to stay inside reading a book, watching college football, or spending some post-Thanksgiving time with the family.

Rain will come to an end from west to east tonight as the surface low pressure system moves from the Upper Texas Coast eastward into the SE US. With drier air filtering in behind the front and some partial clearing expected to take place parts of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau should drop into the upper 30s tonight, with 40s across the rest of South Central Texas. Clearing skies on Sunday will make for a beautiful day with highs in the 60s across the area, but it will be windy. With the upper level trough moving along the Red River on Sunday both the surface and upper level pressure gradients will tighten, leading to the windy conditions.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday) . Dry, breezy and chilly weather will continue Sunday night into Monday, although the winds could lay down briefly early Sunday evening. By late Sunday evening, surface ridging increases again over TX as a reinforcing polar disturbance dives south over the Nrn/Central plains states and absorbs the departing Srn U.S. upper low into a much larger, elongated upper low that extends north into the Great Lakes region. The prolonging of north winds will kick out what's left of any of the moisture collected from our rainy pattern from today, and send low temps to the coldest of the fall season for Tuesday morning. At this point it, looks increasingly possible that a Freeze warning may be warranted for all counties, as only partial freezing conditions were noted in previous cold snaps over parts of the Hill Country. Blended guidance numbers as the first guess into our gridded data are still a few degrees warmer than the MOS guidance values, so there may be a few of our normally cold valley spots on track to get a hard freeze. South winds only return briefly Tuesday for a slight rebound in daytime temps to about 2-5 degrees warmer than that of Monday.

The next progressively moving polar disturbance drops into the Srn Plains and sends the next cold front into TX as early as late Tuesday night. The past few runs of the deterministic models all show a pair of circulations that evolve differently in each solution, leaving some uncertainty of how much influence they will have over South Central TX. The overall trend is that heights are expected to fall by late Wednesday into Friday, but the details could bring some shower activity followed by cold,dry air by late Thursday, or potentially slightly less cold conditions and a longer period of light rain chances. Given the deepening trends with the overall height fields over TX, the brief rain chance Wed/early Thu, and faster drying pattern late Thu, would seem more practical.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Austin Camp Mabry 59 43 61 38 53 / 100 60 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 43 62 37 54 / 100 60 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 44 66 40 58 / 100 50 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 55 39 58 34 53 / 90 50 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 59 41 71 41 59 / 70 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 58 41 58 36 52 / 90 60 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 62 40 68 37 58 / 90 30 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 43 62 37 55 / 100 60 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 47 62 39 54 / 90 70 - 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 44 64 40 56 / 90 40 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 63 45 66 40 56 / 90 40 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Short-Term/Aviation . Treadway Long-Term . Oaks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Llano, Llano Municipal Airport, TX16 mi71 minN 01.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F51°F94%1020 hPa
Lampasas, Lampasas Airport, TX18 mi71 minENE 510.00 miOvercast54°F49°F85%1020 hPa
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX20 mi53 minVar 46.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist53°F51°F93%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQO

Wind History from AQO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N8N5
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N7N8N7N8N8NE6N5NE45CalmN5NE6NE5NE4NE5NE4CalmCalmNE4CalmCalm
1 day agoSE4S8
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S8S7SW8S6S3SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3S4CalmCalmNW6N8N5
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G16
2 days agoN6CalmCalmSE33CalmSE4CalmCalmE4E3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.