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FXUS64 KEWX 011507 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 907 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 904 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Visibilities have quickly improved over the Coastal Plains through the first half of this morning following the onset of daytime heating. Have thus allowed the Dense Fog Advisory that was previously in effect to expire as of 9 AM. No hazards are anticipated through the remainder of today.

Quigley

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

A surface front is draped from the northeast to southwest across South-Central Texas early this morning expected to continue east towards the Gulf Coast through the morning hours. Drier air is noted behind this feature with dewpoints in the 40s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and into the mid 50s to around 60 elsewhere. The drier air will prohibit any fog formation, while portions of the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains are already seeing visibilities dropping across many locations. As drier air continues to filter in, fog should diminish from northwest to southeast with the lowest visibility expected across the Coastal Plains around sunrise. With widespread visibilities of 1/4 mile across much of Coastal Plains already seen, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM for these areas. Will need to keep a close eye on if this product needs to be expanded further west as we get closer to daybreak. Fog will lift mid morning, likely to linger over the Coastal Plains through the day while the rest of the area will see mostly clear skies. Highs will be warmer than normal today mainly from the upper 60s to mid 70s. A few showers or scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Coastal Plains through early evening, although the better chances will remain closer to the Gulf Coast near the cold front.

Overnight temperatures will be a bit cooler than those seen tonight with Saturday morning lows from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Dry and mild weather is expected for Saturday with highs once again in the upper 60s to mid 70s and partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Westerly flow will continue aloft through the start of the long term period as a 500mb long wave trough digs over the central CONUS. Here in South Central Texas, another cold front is expected to swing through Saturday night/early Sunday, bringing mostly drier air back into the equation. A rather cold night may unfold for some of our low-lying, better drainage spots Saturday night as cooler and drier air filters in with light winds. Some spots may dip into the lower to middle 30s, but a widespread freeze is not anticipated at this time.
We should see additional cooler mornings as the drier airmass moves in for Sunday night and Monday night timeframe, but nothing close to freezing. By the Tuesday, moisture in the low levels should start to move back in with return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This could result in some patchy stratus and maybe even patchy fog for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Additionally, a mid- level low will become cut off from the main flow over northern Mexico by late Monday.
However, based on the current trends, any precipitation is expected to remain either over northern Mexico or deep south Texas. The forecast remains seasonable and dry through the remainder of the long term.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Areas of fog continue across South-Central Texas with DRT and SSF mainly seeing the impacts this morning. Expect MVFR to periods of LIFR at these two sites through 14-16Z. AUS reports BCFG which may continue through 14Z. Fog will then lift and scatter with VFR conditions returning to all sites for the rest of the period. Winds will mainly be northerly under 10 knots. Fog development early Saturday morning looks to remain southeast of all terminals at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 49 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 47 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 50 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 47 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 51 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 45 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 49 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 48 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 52 71 48 / 20 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 52 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 53 76 45 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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