Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Palms, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:18PM Monday March 1, 2021 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 8:19AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Palms, SC
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location: 30.97, -77.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 012034 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 334 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail before low pressure passes across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will then prevail until late week when another storm system could brush the area. High pressure will return early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The surface front is now well offshore with weak pressure rises and cooler conditions noted in its wake. The front is still exhibiting a classic split front structure with the elevated 850 hPa cold front will displaced to the northwest by several hours. The elevated front is forecast to settle to near the I-16 corridor by daybreak Tuesday as high pressure begins to wedge down the lee of the Southern Appalachians. High resolution guidance members, mainly the RAP and H3R, have been trending wetter for the period from mid-evening until just after midnight as strengthening mid-level winds begin to overrun the building wedge ahead of the 850 hPa front. The strongest isentropic ascent looks to be centered on the 300-305K surfaces which centers on a large corridor from Reidsville and Millen east to North Charleston and the Savannah Metro area. Pops will be increased to 40% in this region, but higher pops may eventually be needed. Breezy conditions will develop at the beaches and near the immediate coast prior to daybreak as the gradient begins to pinch along the coast in response to a strengthening wedge inland. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s-- warmest along the Georgia coast and into the Darien area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A closed mid level low will exit out of the Southern Plains and track towards the East Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will reside to the north while low pressure moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low will eventually track northeast over/near the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. It's shaping up to be a decent rainmaker with PWats surging to 1.25-1.5 inches (well above early March climatology) and ample forcing in play. Widespread showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms (primarily near the southeast Georgia coast) are expected, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Periods of moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall is possible, which could lead to minor flooding especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Storm total rainfall is forecast to be 2-3 inches. Otherwise, it will be significantly cooler than previous days with highs maxing out in the low to mid 50s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s.

The aforementioned surface low positioned near or just off our coast at daybreak Wednesday will lift northeast away from the area through the day. While showers will likely linger in the morning, rain chances will decrease from southwest to northeast as drier air moves in. Most, if not all, precipitation should have exited by late afternoon. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 50s to around 60. Wednesday night, skies will clear and winds will lighten, allowing for good radiational cooling. Lows will range from upper 30s across the far interior to mid 40s at the immediate coast.

Quiet and dry weather will prevail on Thursday. High pressure will be the dominant feature, although a backdoor cold front will approach from the north late. Expect plenty of sun with highs mainly in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Dry high pressure should prevail through Friday, although a reinforcing cold front Thursday night could cause a few light showers. Still watching for the potential of another southern stream storm system to affect the area Friday night into Saturday or even Saturday night but confidence remains low regarding impacts. A dry and much cooler air mass under high pressure should then return late in the weekend. Will have to watch for the potential for frost and/or freeze conditions Sunday and Monday mornings for inland areas.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Prevailing VFR. Cold front is situated to the west of both KSAV and KCHS and will move through between 18 and 19Z. Upstream observations show that winds are still gusting between 15 and 20 knots behind the cold front. Therefore have kept mention of gusty northwest winds at both terminals. OVC/BKN ceiling conditions throughout the 18Z TAF period, however they should remain VFR. Winds veer in the overnight hours and resume gusting out of the northeast in the morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions likely later Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm system impacts the area. Low- level wind shear could also be a concern Tuesday night into early Wednesday. VFR will return for late week, before the next system brings potential for restrictions over the weekend.

MARINE. Tonight: Earlier sea fog has pushed northeast of the area and there is no additional risk tonight. West to northwest winds behind a cold front will shift north and eventually northeast overnight as high pressure wedges south across the interior. Speeds 10-15 kt this evening will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by daybreak. Seas will build 3-5 ft nearshore waters and 4-6 ft over the Georgia offshore waters late. Small Craft Advisories will be hoisted for all legs, including Charleston Harbor, beginning early Tuesday.

Tuesday through Saturday: Elevated winds and seas are expected through mid week as low pressure passes across the region. Small Craft Advisories will be ongoing at the start of the period, and while there will likely be a brief period of improvement later in the day, conditions will again deteriorate Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is an outside chance for marginal gale force gusts in the immediate proximity of the low, though no Gale Watches or Warning are anticipated at this time. Expect improving conditions Wednesday night with no significant concerns until possible SCA conditions again starting Friday as a cold front pushes through and then another storm system potentially affects the area.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal flooding is possible during the Tuesday late morning high tide near Charleston and along the entire southern SC/northern GA coast during the evening high tide. There is even an outside chance of moderate coastal flooding near Charleston during the evening high tide. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible during the evening high tide which could exacerbate any flooding issues.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ352- 354. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for AMZ374.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC171 mi66 minSW 78.00 miFair77°F59°F54%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJZI

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9
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1 day agoS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS4SW5CalmS5S9SW12
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2 days agoCalmSE3S4CalmCalm----CalmCalm------CalmCalmCalmW7SW9S8SW9S9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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