Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Minette, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:53PM Saturday December 14, 2019 7:51 AM CST (13:51 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 9:56AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 511 Am Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Today..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Waves less than 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 511 Am Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis..Light to moderate northwesterly flow will persist early this morning. Winds will become light and more westerly by this evening. Ahead of an advancing cold front from the west, light to moderate southerly flow will take hold Sunday. In its wake, strong northerly flow is then expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Furthermore, winds to gale force are possible over the open gulf waters Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Minette, AL
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location: 30.98, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 141128 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 528 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

DISCUSSION. See updated information below.

UPDATE. Have updated to include the high risk of rip currents along beach areas and also to remove mention of patchy fog over the southern portion of the area this morning. No other major changes. /29

MARINE. Have updated to remove mention of patchy fog over bays and near shore waters this morning.

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . LIFR to IFR ceilings over much of the area improve to VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Low ceilings redevelop over the area late tonight, and patchy fog is possible. Light northwest winds become westerly 5 to 10 knots today then calm or light southeasterly winds are expected tonight. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 359 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/ . An upper trof over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic leaving a fairly zonal flow over the region, and dry conditions are expected during the period. A surface low currently located near the coast of the Carolinas moves well off to the north, followed by a surface ridge over the central states shifting eastward across the region tonight. Northwesterly winds near 5 knots over the area, slightly stronger over the eastern portion, has been generating sufficient low level mixing to favor low stratus over dense fog, although patchy dense fog will be possible over the western portion of the area early this morning. For tonight, with an open radiative channel and either a calm or light southeasterly flow, expect low stratus and patchy fog to redevelop across the area which may evolve into areas of dense fog. Highs today range from the lower 60s well inland to the mid 60s elsewhere. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to the upper 40s at the coast. /29

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/ . Broad upper ridging develops over the eastern states through Sunday night while a positively tilted upper trof to the west advances to extend from the northern Plains to the 4 Corners region. An associated surface low over the south central states moves to the ArkLaTex by late Sunday night, with a warm front meanwhile lifting northward across the forecast area during the day on Sunday. While warmer temperatures and increasing low level moisture accompanies the warm frontal passage, model soundings remain rather dry above 900 mb and have continued with a dry forecast through Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the lower 70s and lows Sunday night range from the mid 50s well inland to around 60 near the coast.

The upper trof pushes east over the central CONUS Monday and southwest flow sets up downstream over the local area. At the surface, a cold front extends from Missouri southwest into northern Texas and begins to surge southeastward as the upper trof advances east. Steady return flow ahead of the front continues to transport Gulf warmth and moisture inland during this time, allowing for as much as 1000-1200 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by Monday afternoon across portions of the local area. This, coupled with 50+ knots of bulk shear and a modest LLJ (~40 knots at 850 mb), could support a few strong to severe storms along the front as it pushes through late Monday into Monday night. Storm mode looks messy with shear being primarily boundary-parallel and strongest lift occurring right along the front. Expecting a broken squall line with embedded transient mesocyclone structures and bowing segments. Primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, though cannot rule out the potential for a brief tornado if anything is able to remain semi- discrete. A cool and dry northerly flow sets up in the immediate wake of the front and rain chances taper off from west to east by Tuesday morning. Highs on Monday reach the mid to upper 70s and lows Monday night range from 40s behind the front to 50s ahead of it. 29/49

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . Rain chances taper from west to east early on Tuesday as the front pushes through the remainder of the area. In the wake of the front, cool and dry northerly flow sets up and temperatures gradually drop into the upper 40s and low 50s throughout the day. Cool and dry weather then prevails Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds east across the Deep South and into the Southeast. Highs each afternoon stay in the 50s and lows each night range from upper 20s inland to low 30s closer to the coast. Freezing temperatures will be possible all the way down to the coast Wednesday night. A gradual warming trend begins Thursday as the surface high builds into the Southeast and western Atlantic and local flow shifts to easterly and then southeasterly. Moisture begins to return heading into Friday as another system approaches from the west, with rain chances increasing as a result. Highs Thursday and Friday reach the upper 50s to low 60s and lows range from upper 30s to low 40s. /49

MARINE . Light to moderate northwesterly flow will persist early this morning. Some low clouds and patchy fog have also been observed on satellite, particularly over the near shore waters of Alabama. This will continue through dawn; however, any fog will lift and dissipate by mid-morning. Winds will then become light and more westerly by this evening. Ahead of an advancing cold front from the west, light to moderate southerly flow will take hold Sunday. In its wake, strong northerly flow is then expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Furthermore, winds to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters Tuesday night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required as well as potentially a Gale Watch during this time. /26

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 21 mi118 min 51°F 58°F1011.6 hPa
PTOA1 23 mi112 min 51°F 48°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 25 mi112 min N 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 59°F1011.8 hPa (+1.0)
MBPA1 33 mi112 min 48°F 48°F
WBYA1 39 mi112 min 58°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi67 min 50°F 1012 hPa49°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 49 mi142 min NNW 4.1 50°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL26 mi59 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist47°F45°F93%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFM

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4N5NE6N5N4NE5N5N8NW10N5N4N4N7N4N5NW5NW6N7N8N7NW6NW6N3Calm
1 day agoNE10NE9NE9NE9E7E7NE8NE6NE10NE11E11NE8NE8NE10NE7NE9NE10NE8N6NE9NE7NE7NE5NE5
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Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:44 AM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:03 PM CST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.61.61.51.41.210.70.50.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.70.91

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:24 AM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:54 AM CST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.51.31.10.80.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.200.30.50.811.21.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.