Friday, November27, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Minette, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 4:52PM Friday November 27, 2020 5:38 PM CST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 4:54AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 329 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 18 to 23 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 329 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis..Light onshore flow will shift to offshore tonight as a cold front moves south over the gulf. Moderate to strong onshore flow returns by Sunday as a system approaches from the west. Flow becomes moderate to strong offshore Sunday night as a cold front crosses area waters. Winds weaken mid week as surface high pressure passes over the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Minette, AL
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location: 30.98, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 272155 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 355 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/. At 3pm, the surface front that started the day along I-10 has pushed inland over eastern portions of the forecast area, to roughly along I-65. Mid level shortwave energy was moving through zonal mid level flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley/Southeast, and has been providing the instability for west of the Alabama River at this time. Am expecting this convection to continue to spread east through the late afternoon and evening. Even with the boundary moving inland, instability remains marginal over the forecast area, with the latest analysis advertising 1000-1500J/kg south of Highway 84, a bit higher than originally thought. Guidance is advertising effective bulk shear values rising to 40-55 knots(depending upon the model) south of Highway 84 as the mid level energy passes, but looking at model soundings, the strongest winds remain at or above 700mb, and is generally linear in the lowest 15k ft of the atmosphere (according to the KMOB VWP). All in all, a few bowing structures are possible, bringing some strong winds, but with limited mid/upper level dry air, damaging winds will be limited. A Marginal Risk of severe weather is possible over the forecast area, generally west of a Wilcox County, Alabama to Escambia County, Florida line. There is some concern with water issues this afternoon/evening. Precipitable h20 values rise to around 1.7-1.8", allowing for more efficient rainers. The rain recorded over the area the last several days has been spread out enough and limited enough in magnitude over the forecast area to drain away, but decently high soil moisture values were analyzed along and near the stalled boundary. There may be some ponding over the more urbanized areas along I-10 as a result, but do not feel a flash flood watch is needed at this time, especially with the relatively fast passage of the rain.

Temperatures over the next 30-36 hours will be above seasonal norms, with the warm, soupy airmass remaining in place. Did bump temperatures down to the low mid 60s northwest of I-65 this afternoon, with this portion of the forecast area seeing little sun so far today. Along and southeast, am still expecting temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to around 80. Tonight, some cooler air is expected to move south over northern portions of the forecast area, mainly after midnight, but am expecting this to affect mainly areas long and north of Highway 84, bringing lows in the mid to upper 50s. South of there, low to mid 60s are expected. Saturday, another seasonably warm day is expected over most of the forecast area, with high temperatures ranging from upper 60s to near 70 northwest of I- 65 to low to mid 70s southeast. /16

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/. The potent upper level shortwave over Oklahoma and Texas Saturday night will move into the lower MS Valley on Sunday. A surface low will develop over the northwest Gulf along the stalled frontal and quickly move northeast into central Alabama by Sunday evening. Rain will quickly develop after midnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning as warm air advection enhances lift along and to the north of the frontal zone which will be located very close to the coast. As we go through the day Sunday, the front will try to lift north as a warm front as the surface low moves northeast and strengthens. However, it is tough to determine how far north the boundary will get, which in turn will dictate how much of a warm sector and resultant instability spreads inland. The latest guidance, especially the GFS, shows significant rain occurring along and just to the cool side of the boundary (strong surface convergence combined with increasing upper level divergence), which keeps the front hung up close to the coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and NAM show a slightly greater extent north of the boundary, which places at least coastal area more firmly in the warm sector. These differences will go a long way in determining the severe weather potential. Bulk shear of 50-60 kt will be more than supportive of severe weather, with strong low level helicity located along and just south of the front. However, if the instability stays just offshore, then there will be less of a chance for severe weather. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it is often hard to ascertain the finer details of the severe threat in these high shear, low instability situations. At this point, there is a Marginal Risk of severe weather across much of the forecast area and this looks reasonable, especially closer to the coast. Strong differential divergence in the presence of PWATs of 1.5-1.75" indicates there will be periods of heavy rain as the system moves through. 1-3" of rain is forecast, with the highest totals expected to be close to coast where the strongest low level convergence and potential instability will exist. Given how dry conditions have been over the past month, we are not anticipating significant flooding issues. However, there could be some localized flooding, especially along the urban areas along and south of I-10.

Conditions will quickly dry out from west to east Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through. The front should be east of the area by midnight. Strong cold air advection will persist into Monday night in the wake of the front. Highs will struggle to climb much if at all on Monday, with highs only topping out in the upper 40s well inland with low to mid 50s along the coast. Went a few degrees lower than the MAV guidance as the physical guidance shows temperatures staying several degrees lower than what the MAV MOS suggests. It will also be quite breezy on Monday with wind gusts of 25-30 mph expected, especially Monday afternoon.

The first freeze of the season will occur across most locations Monday night/Tuesday morning. It will be a significant freeze well inland with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Low to mid 30s are expected along the immediate coast. Wind chills could briefly drop down into the upper teens early Tuesday morning along and north of the Highway 84 corridor. 34/JFB

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/. Below normal temperatures will persist through midweek as Canadian high pressure settles over the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday will be another well below normal day with highs once again only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s. Another freeze is expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the surface high will be centered over the region. Lows will be very similar to what is expected Monday night.

Beyond Wednesday, confidence decreases given the large spread of model solutions and how they handle the next significant shortwave energy moving into the CONUS from both Canada and the Pacific NW. Ensemble means indicate significant troughing to our west by Thursday of next week, which will set the stage for another cold front to approach our area from the west. A return of rain chances along with slightly warmer conditions (still below normal) are included in the forecast for Thursday/Friday. It will take some time to sort out the details on how significant the next front and overall storm system will be. Regardless, a return to well below normal temperatures is possible in the wake of this system by the end of next week. 34/JFB

MARINE. A surface front north of the Gulf coast will shift south later tonight into Saturday, bringing a light offshore flow. An system approaching Sunday will shift flow back to onshore Saturday night into Sunday and strengthen to moderate to strong. Flow shifts to offshore Sunday night after a cold front cross the area. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late Sunday into Tuesday. Flow will ease beginning late Tuesday and shift to onshore mid week as high pressure moves over, then east of the area. /16

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 21 mi50 min 67°F
PTOA1 23 mi50 min 71°F 70°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 25 mi50 min SSE 1 G 2.9 71°F 67°F1015.3 hPa
MBPA1 33 mi50 min 71°F 71°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 38 mi38 min ESE 8 70°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.4)
WBYA1 39 mi50 min 73°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 45 mi98 min SSE 4.1 1016.3 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL26 mi45 minS 310.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F69°F91%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFM

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE5N3NW4NW4S7S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE54CalmCalmSE3SE4SE4SE5SE3S3S3
1 day agoS6CalmS6S45S7S4S6S6S3SE4CalmSW5SW3W5CalmNE3N8N9NE8NE8--N5N6
2 days agoE10E8E8E8E8SE11SE7SE8SE8SE3SE6S4SE3SE4SE5S6S8S7S5
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Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:54 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:52 AM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.11.110.90.80.60.50.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:54 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:58 AM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:08 PM CST     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.50.30.20.10-000.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8111.11.21.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.