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FXUS64 KSJT 042327 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...Significant severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening...

Not much change to forecast reasoning the next 24 hours. Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was moving slowly south across far southern portions of the Big Country and extends west to near Midland and west to the New Mexico border. A dryline extended south from the front across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos.
Isolated thunderstorms have already developed just north of the boundary early this afternoon. One cell was located in Scurry county and another in Nolan county. Both of these storms will have the potential to produce large hail despite being on the north side of the front. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front later this afternoon and then south of the front and east of the dryline during peak heating.
Any storms north of the front will pose a large hail and possibly a wind threat. The airmass ahead of the front and east of the dryline will become very unstable by mid/late afternoon (MLCAPE 2500-3500), with deep layer shear 45-60 kts by early evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 19 and 20Z, per latest CAM's. Any storms that develop within the warm sector will become severe quickly, with large to very large hail and some tornadoes possible. A southeasterly low level jet will develop this evening, increasing the tornado potential as storms move east into richer moisture. The greatest tornado potential is expected generally south and west of a San Angelo to Sonora line, where a strong tornado is possible. Isolated tornadoes will be possible farther south and east across portions of the Heartland and northwest Hill Country counties later this evening/overnight.

Storms are expected to eventually form into an MCS and move east across the area overnight. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall will be possible through tonight, with widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain expected, with some locales seeing in excess of 3 inches. Excessive rainfall may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Due to the heavy rain potential and given recent heavy rainfall, a Flood Watch has been issued for most of the area, except far western counties through tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move east of the area by mid to late morning, with mainly dry conditions through afternoon. However, may see some isolated development over far southeast counties tomorrow afternoon, so will keep low POPs intact for now. Expect cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs mainly in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

There will be a few days in the long term which we will be monitoring for severe weather potential. Part of the Big Country is in a marginal risk, with a small part of Throckmorton County in a slight risk for Monday. Right now, it looks like the higher severe threat will be to our northeast, but with the moist air mass we'll have in place, the high instability, and the decent shear, we can't rule out severe weather for Monday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also has the potential for severe weather, mainly in our eastern counties, once again due to very high instability. Right now, the chances for rain and storms look low for our area and better to our east for Wednesday, but this is something we'll be watching. There will be a warming trend into the middle of next week, as an 850 mb thermal ridge starts to shift over our area and southwest/west winds bring downsloping, warm air. A cold front is expected to bring below- normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s) for the Big Country on Thursday and all of the area for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings will persist across the area through tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms currently tracking through parts of the Heartland and Big Country, and approaching the western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau over then next hour or two. These showers/storms will begin to organize later this evening into a complex/line of storms as it moves east/southeast overnight. Expect MVFR/possible IFR ceilings to overspread the area overnight into Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 61 77 65 87 / 90 20 10 10 San Angelo 62 80 65 90 / 90 40 10 10 Junction 65 82 68 87 / 90 60 10 10 Brownwood 62 77 65 84 / 90 40 10 20 Sweetwater 60 76 65 89 / 100 10 10 10 Ozona 62 78 66 87 / 90 40 10 10 Brady 62 77 67 83 / 90 50 10 20

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Haskell-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard- Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green.

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San Angelo, TX,