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FXUS64 KSJT 051120 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 520 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

We're seeing chilly temperatures this morning across the region as clear skies and light winds are leading to good radiational cooling conditions. As of 1 am, the temperatures were in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Today, sunny skies will continue as an upper level ridge pushes into the region. A weak front will slowly push through the region from north to south from late morning through early evening, but it won't really cool things down at all. We're expecting similar highs to yesterday (mid 60s to low 70s), as the 850 mb thermal ridge remains about the same strength. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, and perhaps a bit warmer than that, as some mid and high levels clouds associated with a weak short-wave trough aloft moves through.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 142 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Little in the way of impactful weather upcoming this week across West Central Texas. Ensemble and model blends show excellent agreement on temperatures through Friday with highs climbing well into the 70s and perhaps pushing towards the 80 degree mark by Friday afternoon.

Upper trough arrives for the weekend, and although data still shows a dry forecast, temperatures show a much wider spread as a stronger cold front arrives. Data from the ensembles range anywhere from the mid/upper 70s to the mid 40s for Saturday highs so clearly an increase in uncertainty. Model blends though haven't changed a whole lot and will continue to stick close to them, showing highs in the 50s and 60s for the weekend, but this is one area where we will continue the watch closely and see is some adjustments may be needed.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions and variable winds of 6 KT or less expected through 12Z Wed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 67 38 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 69 38 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 72 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 69 38 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 65 39 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 69 38 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 69 41 66 47 / 0 0 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,