Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Simons, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:52PM Friday October 18, 2019 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 10:48AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 323 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Saturday evening...
Tonight..East southeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet after midnight. Inland waters choppy. Showers.
Saturday..South southeast winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts to around 45 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Inland waters very rough. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 25 to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts to 45 knots in the evening. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet after midnight. Inland waters rough. Showers likely.
Sunday..West northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters smooth.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 323 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis.. Tropical storm nestor will quickly move northeast through the gulf to a landfall over the florida panhandle tonight. The tropical storm will rapidly transition to more of a wintertime low as it tracks quickly northeast across southern georgia on Saturday and then south carolina on Saturday night. Gale force winds are likely across most portions of the waters by early Saturday morning as this storm passes through the region. In addition to the winds, strong Thunderstorms will also be possible starting early Saturday, with the threat continuing until the early evening. High pressure will then build late Sunday into Sunday night. A strong cold front is expected to move southeast across the region Tuesday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 17, 2019 at 1200 utc... 56 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 71 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 91 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 89 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Simons, GA
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location: 31.13, -81.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 182339
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
739 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Aviation
[through 00z Sunday]
so far stillVFR conds at all TAF sites with light over-running
rainfall at gnv which will spread into the other TAF sites in the
02-06z time frame with likely MVFR CIGS vsbys developing, then ifr
cigs vsbys developing in the moderate rainfall by the 06-10z time
frame. Heavy rainfall, embedded storms (vcts) and ifr CIGS vsbys
continue from 12-18z with e-se winds increasing to 15-20g25-30
knots at all TAF sites, then as gusty south winds develop in the
16-18z time frame, CIGS should lift to MVFR but widespread
showers and embedded storms with ifr vsbys will continue through
the afternoon hours. Still too early to try and time tempo storms
with potential squall line with stronger winds to 40 knots at this
time.

Prev discussion [322 pm edt]
Short term (tonight through Monday night)
wet and windy weather is expected on Saturday due to the
lingering effects of tropical storm nestor, which is currently
located over the central gulf and moving quickly northeast toward
the florida panhandle. The national hurricane center forecasts
the accompanying low to become extratropical soon after moving
onshore, so it will be more characteristic of a strong wintertime
low or gale center as it moves northeast through south-central
georgia on Saturday afternoon. The low will be gaining a
baroclinic structure, complete with a warm front extending to the
east and a cold front trailing back to its southwest. The biggest
impacts will be generally windy weather and a marginal risk of
severe weather on Saturday from one or perhaps two trailing squall
lines and an eventual frontal passage.

At first tonight, southeast winds will increase in the tight
gradient that develops between the landfalling nestor and a 1020
mb surface high over the mid-atlantic region. This will be most
pronounced over the georgia waters, which could have near-gale
southeast winds by sunrise. As you would expect with a low passing
by to the north, winds will become more southerly on Saturday
afternoon, then southwesterly on Saturday evening, and finally
westerly on Sunday morning. The strongest breezes should come on
Saturday pm as the low center makes its closest approach across
south-central georgia. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are forecast,
mainly along and north-northwest of a gainesville to jacksonville
beach line. This is where a wind advisory is being issued, in
coordination with neighboring offices.

Regarding the severe threat, SPC has a marginal risk drawn for the
entire forecast area in their day 2 outlook valid on Saturday.

Only weak instability of less than 1000 j kg is expected, but the
kinematics will be favorable for severe weather. It appears that a
warm front will lift northward from florida into georgia on
Saturday morning, with a favorable veering low-level wind profile
present in the vicinity of the warm front. Mesoscale models show
at least one and perhaps two separate squall lines, which will
bring the main threat for severe winds and an isolated tornado.

As the low accelerates east-northeast through south carolina on
sat night, a cold front will spread eastward through NE fl SE ga.

It will be followed by a drier and more stable air mass. Surface
dewpoints will fall into the mid 60s, and full sunshine will
return.

The post-frontal surface ridge axis will pass east into the
atlantic on Sunday night, and a stronger cold front will push into
the southern mississippi valley on Monday. As a result, low-level
onshore flow off the atlantic will return on Monday, eventually
becoming southerly on Monday night. Surface-based moisture will
return and deepen, and some warm advection lift will bring a
return of a few showers or some spotty light rain.

Long term (Tuesday through next Friday)
a cold front will push through the forecast area on Tuesday,
bringing a chance of rain centered on Monday night and Tuesday. An
even drier air mass and rain-free weather will follow on Wed and
wed night.

A cold front will settle through the southern plains to the
north-central and northwest gulf next Friday. In advance of this
front, a turn to low-level southeast winds and the development of
a warm advection pattern will support the return of rain chances
to the forecast first to the coast on Thu night, spreading inland
next Friday.

Marine
As the post-tropical low from tropical storm nestor tracks quickly
northeast through south-central georgia on Saturday, near-gale
southeasterlies will develop on Saturday morning, most prominently
along the georgia coast. As the low passes by to the north, winds
will turn out of the south and peak on Saturday afternoon along
the georgia coast as a full gale. The low will exit through south
carolina on Saturday night, leading to decreasing southwest then
west winds.

Hydrology
Rainfall amounts generally of 1-3 inches are possible through the
early Sunday as the system pushes through the area. The heaviest
amounts are forecast over the georgia zones and in florida along
and west of u.S. 301. Due to the progressive nature of the
system, only brief localized flooding potential would be expected
in this situation.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 63 76 62 78 60 90 90 50 10 0
ssi 70 79 68 79 68 90 90 60 10 0
jax 69 81 67 83 65 90 100 30 10 0
sgj 71 81 69 83 68 90 90 30 10 0
gnv 66 81 67 83 63 90 90 30 10 0
ocf 68 83 69 85 64 90 90 30 20 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... Wind advisory from 8 am to 11 pm edt Saturday for coastal nassau.

Wind advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Saturday for baker-bradford-
clay-coastal duval-eastern alachua-gilchrist-hamilton-
inland duval-inland nassau-northern columbia-southern
columbia-suwannee-union-western alachua.

Ga... Wind advisory from 8 am to 11 pm edt Saturday for appling-
atkinson-bacon-brantley-coastal camden-coastal glynn-coffee-
inland camden-inland glynn-jeff davis-northeastern charlton-
northern ware-pierce-wayne.

Wind advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Saturday for clinch-echols-
southern ware-western charlton.

Am... Gale warning from 5 am Saturday to 5 am edt Sunday for waters
from altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60
nm-waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20
to 60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from
20 to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 5 am to 11 pm edt Saturday for coastal waters
from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler
beach fl out 20 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 21 mi74 min ENE 4.1 71°F 1014 hPa (+0.0)58°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 30 mi44 min 78°F2 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi56 min ENE 2.9 G 6 77°F1013.8 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 33 mi84 min E 12 G 14 74°F 78°F2 ft1014.1 hPa (+0.0)60°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA1 mi21 minE 810.00 miFair74°F55°F54%1013.7 hPa
Brunswick / Glynco, GA10 mi19 minENE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F59°F75%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE4E6E10E9E7E7NE5NE5
1 day agoW5W5W5W6NW5NW4W3W5W4NW3W3NW4W4NW7N5W7W5W5W6W6W5W5W3SW3
2 days agoCalmSE5E6N3SE6S10S12
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SW9SW9SW12SW9SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for St. Simons Lighthouse, St. Simons Island, Georgia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mackay River (Daymark #239), Georgia
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Mackay River (Daymark #239)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:07 AM EDT     7.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:28 PM EDT     8.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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76.864.73.21.80.90.92.13.95.87.387.97.264.42.91.71.31.834.65.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.