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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 229 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest and increasing to around 15 knots this afternoon. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters becoming a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms developing during the mid to late afternoon hours. Strong to severe Thunderstorms containing damaging winds and waterspouts will be possible late this afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Occasional gusts to gale force after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters becoming choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas building to 6 to 8 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet, building to 7 to 10 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 229 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
a strong cold front will approach our region this afternoon, crossing our local waters during the evening hours tonight. Southerly winds will strengthen to small craft advisory levels over the offshore waters during the late morning hours. A squall line of strong to severe Thunderstorms will precede this front late this afternoon, with stronger storms being capable of producing damaging wind gusts and waterspouts through early this evening. Outside of Thunderstorm activity, westerly winds will increase to small craft advisory levels towards Sunset for the near shore waters, with winds then shifting to northwesterly and occasionally gusting to gale force after midnight both near shore and offshore. High pressure will then build over the southeastern states in the wake of this cold frontal passage on Monday morning, allowing for gradually diminishing northerly winds and subsiding seas. This high pressure center will migrate northeastward and will strengthen over the coastal carolinas on Tuesday, resulting in an extended period of strong northeasterly winds and steadily building seas that will persist into next weekend. Coastal troughing developing over our near shore waters will likely develop showers by mid to late week that may persist into next weekend.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 1200 utc...
50 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 53 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 78 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 101050 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 550 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions will prevail early this morning, with lower cumulus clouds developing towards 14Z, resulting in a period of MVFR ceilings during the mid to late morning hours. Ceilings should lift to VFR during the early afternoon hours as southerly surface winds strengthen. A squall line of showers and strong thunderstorms will then approach the terminals after 19Z, with periods of IFR conditions likely during heavier downpours and wind gusts of 30-40 knots possible within stronger storms from 20Z through around 01Z. Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms should exit the terminals before 05Z, with a period of prevailing IFR ceilings expected through around 07Z before skies clear from west to east during the predawn hours on Monday. Southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots early this morning will increase to 10-15 knots before noon, with winds then shifting to south- southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots and gusty during the mid-afternoon hours immediately ahead of the approaching squall line. Surface winds will then shift to westerly towards 00Z and then northwesterly before 06Z Monday, with speeds remaining in the 15-20 knot range and gusty. Northwesterly surface winds will then subside slightly to the 10-15 knot range towards sunrise on Monday.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 345 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Overnight surface analysis depicts a strong cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes south-southwestward through the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys. A pre-frontal trough and associated squall line was positioned from the southern Appalachians to the western FL panhandle as of 09Z. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1038 millibars) was centered over the southern Rockies in the wake of this cold front, with this surface ridge building eastward over the Plains States
Aloft
potent shortwave troughing was migrating across the Great Lakes region, with a sharpening, positively-tilted trough axis extending south of this feature across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley of northern Texas. Otherwise, stout ridging centered over the Bahamas was migrating slowly eastward. Low stratus cloudiness was developing within a warm air advection regime over portions of inland southeast GA, while fair skies prevailed across coastal southeast GA, northeast and north central FL. Temperatures have been slowly rising overnight, with most locations now in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 60s at coastal locations.
Dewpoints have generally risen into the 60s.

NEAR TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Troughing aloft will continue to sharpen and will take on a more neutral tilt as it migrates into the southeastern states today, driving a pre-frontal trough and associated squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms across the FL panhandle this morning. Our local pressure gradient will tighten this morning, resulting in breezy southerly winds by the mid-morning hours that will veer slightly to south-southwesterly in advance of the squall line by early afternoon. Low stratus cloudiness over portions of inland southeast GA will lift by the mid-morning hours, with lower cumulus clouds developing and increasing in coverage after sunrise elsewhere. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 70s area-wide by late morning as the squall line approaches the Ocmulgee/Alapaha/Suwannee and upper Altamaha Rivers in southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley towards noon. Highs will top out in the lower 80s this afternoon along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL, as well as north central FL.

A low level southwesterly jet of 40-50 knots at 850 millibars (around 5,000 feet) will overspread inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley immediately ahead of the approaching squall line, with this low level jet then migrating eastward across the rest of our area during the mid to late afternoon hours. Bulk wind shear values of around 50 knots are expected across our region by early afternoon, with slightly higher helicity values forecast for locations north of Interstate 10 per model soundings, while unidirectional flow prevails elsewhere. Breaks in the cumulus cloud cover this morning will allow for ML CAPE values to rise to 250-500 j/kg by early afternoon across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley and around 500 j/kg elsewhere by the mid to late afternoon. This classic high shear, low CAPE setup has kept a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorm development across our region, with 2% tornado probabilities placed across for southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. The primary threat within any isolated severe thunderstorms that develop within the squall line will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, mostly within segments that bow out along the squall line.
An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out within the slightly higher helicity environment for locations north of I-10. The squall line will reach the I-95 corridor late this afternoon, moving offshore around or slightly before sunset. The squall line will likely weaken as it crosses I-95.

A thin line of heavy showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany the actual cold frontal passage towards sunset across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with this line of heavier showers then progressing eastward this evening, moving offshore of the northeast FL coast by midnight. The progressive nature of the squall line and cold front should limit rainfall amounts to around 1 inch for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with locally higher totals possible. Rainfall amounts of around a half inch are expected elsewhere, except around one quarter of an inch along the northeast FL coast. Breezy westerly winds ahead of the approaching cold front this evening will shift to northwesterly, with gusts in the immediate wake of the front of 30-40 mph possible overnight. Low stratus cloudiness in the immediate wake of the cold frontal passage will decrease from west to east during the predawn hours, with strong northwesterly winds and cold air advection dropping temperatures to near 40 degrees over inland southeast GA and western portions of the Suwannee Valley, ranging to the mid to upper 40s at area beaches towards sunrise on Monday.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Strengthening high pressure will build to the northwest Monday, then to the north Monday night. Skies will be clear for much of the day on Monday, with a dry day. As the high moves more toward the north northwest later in the day, the flow will become more onshore at the NE FL, bringing in enough more moisture for a few coastal clouds. As the high moves more toward the north Monday night, the dry weather will continue, but the onshore flow will help produce clouds a little further inland.

Cold advection through the day Monday, will result in below normal temperatures with highs generally in the 50s, expect closer to 60 south of Ocala. For Monday night, a wide range in temperatures is expected, as cold advection will continue further inland, but the flow will be more onshore east and south. Lows Monday night well inland will be near freezing, but in the middle 40s at the coast.
At this time confidence is not high that many sites will reach freezing, and if they do, it would likely be brief. So, no freeze watch planned.

The strong broad ridge of high pressure will settle to the north during the day Tuesday, keeping the onshore flow pattern going.
The center of the high will drift more to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday. This shift in the pattern will keep the onshore pattern going, and allow for more moisture to move north into region. The added moisture will result in mostly cloudy by dry conditions for Tuesday into Wednesday. The onshore flow and cloud cover will keep temperatures a little below normal during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, while lows will range from around 40 far inland, to the mid 50s NE FL coast.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A good bit of uncertainty in the forecast this period, as there is significant model differences.

The broad surface high will remain to the north of the area this period. Moisture will gather and move north across forecast area this period. The models differ in how much moisture, whether a low develops to the south, and then where low tracks.

At this time, most confidence is in precipitation chances across southern counties through Friday, so have focused pops there.
Extended range models depict higher chances across area for Saturday. Will spread chance pops across area, then can pin this down better as models come into better agreement. Skies should be largely cloudy due to increase in moisture. The cloudy skies and continued onshore flow, will yield temperatures near to a little below normal during the days, and near to above at night.

MARINE
Issued at 345 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front will approach our region this afternoon, crossing our local waters during the evening hours tonight.
Southerly winds will strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels of around 20 knots over the offshore waters during the late morning hours. Seas will build to the 3-4 foot range near shore this afternoon, and 4-6 feet offshore. A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms will precede this front late this afternoon, with stronger storms being capable of producing damaging wind gusts and waterspouts through early this evening. Outside of thunderstorm activity, westerly winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels towards sunset for the near shore waters, with winds then shifting to northwesterly and occasionally gusting to Gale Force after midnight both near shore and offshore. Seas will build to 6-8 feet offshore overnight, while seas near shore reach the 3-5 foot range.

High pressure will then build over the southeastern states in the wake of this cold frontal passage on Monday morning, allowing for gradually diminishing northerly winds and subsiding seas. Seas will subside to the 3-5 foot range offshore on Monday afternoon and evening, with 2-4 foot seas expected near shore. This high pressure center will migrate northeastward and will strengthen over the coastal Carolinas on Tuesday, resulting in an extended period of strong northeasterly winds and steadily building seas that will persist into next weekend. Seas will build to the 6-8 foot range near shore by Wednesday night, with seas offshore building to 7-9 feet. Coastal troughing developing over our near shore waters will likely develop showers by mid to late week that may persist into next weekend.

Rip Currents: Strengthening southerly winds and building seas will create a lower end moderate rip current risk at area beaches today. Strong northwesterly winds on Monday morning should result in a low rip current risk at area beaches. Strengthening onshore winds on Tuesday will likely create a high rip current risk by the afternoon hours as seas become increasingly rough, with this high rip current risk continuing into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 39 56 33 / 90 80 0 0 SSI 75 44 58 44 / 80 80 0 0 JAX 81 44 58 38 / 90 80 0 0 SGJ 81 47 59 47 / 80 80 0 0 GNV 80 44 59 39 / 90 70 0 0 OCF 81 46 60 41 / 80 70 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.

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Brunswick
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Sun -- 12:13 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 AM EST     7.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:02 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:30 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:56 PM EST     6.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brunswick, East River, Georgia, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:32 AM EST     2.45 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:21 AM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:37 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:56 PM EST     1.69 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:14 PM EST     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

Full Color Weather Map

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