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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 216 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through Monday morning...
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 216 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
south to southeast winds will become southerly tonight as a cold front begins to approach the region from the west with showers and isolated Thunderstorms mainly over the offshore waters through tonight. Sunday, south southwesterly winds will increase to caution levels offshore as the front slides east towards coastal waters from the west with showers and Thunderstorms increasing in coverage by the afternoon and early evening hours. The cold front will pass through the coastal waters after midnight with drier conditions by Sunrise. Breezy southwest winds will shift to the northwest in the wake of the front with a small craft advisory in place from Sunday evening into late Monday morning. Occasioanl gusts to gale force will be possible over the offshore waters. High pressure will build into the southeast states Monday and then build north and east into the carolina coast by the middle of next week. Northerly winds Monday and Monday night will turn northeasterly Tuesday and increase in strength again by late Tuesday into the day Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds to the north through the end of next week.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2023 at 1200 utc...
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 75 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 87 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 092352 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 652 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Very warm, well above normal temperatures this Saturday afternoon have been noted across much of the area with readings hovering around 80 (still shy of daily record highs by a few degrees), save for the beaches and immediate coastal communities where the temperatures have only risen into the low/mid 70s due to cooler shelf waters where sea surface temperatures linger in the mid/upper 60s. Few to scattered cumulus cloud streets are apparent on satellite, streaming from central Fl into north central FL with mainly sunny skies elsewhere over our area. A seabreeze just moving onshore will trek inland just past I-95 through sunset as high pressure to our east retreats farther eastward into the western Atlantic waters and southerly winds 5-10 will shift SE behind the boundary over the coastal counties. A quick shower or sprinkle is possible mainly over the southern St Johns river basin, but enough subsidence should prevent organized showers from developing.

Tonight, clouds will begin to increase after midnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Southerly flow aloft will turn winds southerly overnight 5 mph or less inland and 5-10 mph at the coast with lows well above normal in the low 60s inland and the mid 60s at the coast. Low stratus and patchy fog will develop, mainly inland away from the coast well ahead of heavy showers along and just ahead of the cold front that will should be delayed from entering our western counties until later Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

The main story during this period will be strong to isolated severe thunderstorm potential across NE FL and SE GA associated with a frontal boundary moving southeastward through the region on Sunday. Southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching front will rise PWATs over 1.5 inches and allow high temperatures to reach the 70s area-wide to near 80 degrees in north central Florida. The unstable air mass will allow for isolated pop-up thunderstorms across NE FL and SE GA prior to the more organized pre-frontal line of convection reaching the interior SE GA counties late Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be embedded in this quick moving line, with the main threats being damaging gusty winds across NE FL and SE GA, and potential for an isolated tornado, mainly north of I-10. The Storm Prediction Center has placed SE GA and NE FL in a Marginal Risk for severe storms Sunday, forecast soundings are indicating decent MLCAPE, with effective bulk shear values around 40 knots and dewpoints above 60 degrees. In addition, there may be some pockets of locally heavy rainfall, mainly near the Suwanee valley. Most of inland NE FL and SE GA will see the main timing of convection in the afternoon to evening. The convective line will hit the coastal areas later in the day, and most storms will likely be offshore around midnight.

The front will move through Florida overnight Sunday into Monday, leaving a wake of dry air and much cooler temperatures. Highs Monday will only reach the mid to upper 50s over most of SE GA and NE FL, with a few lucky spots in north central Florida hitting 60 degrees as breezy northwesterly winds advect cold air southward.
Monday night low temperatures will plummet to just near or above freezing across inland SE GA, a light freeze will be possible far inland SE GA, with a significant potential for inland frost. Along the coast and north central Florida will have low temps staying at or above 40 degrees.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Dry, cool weather will continue mid-week, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s as high pressure builds to the north. An elevated onshore wind event will develop mid-week and last through the end of this period, allowing moisture to return to the area. Temperatures will gradually rise each day this week to near normal by Friday. Some models are indicating a Gulf low forming later this week and sweeping across Florida Friday into Saturday, bringing precipitation potential across the region, but confidence is low at this time on details.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Moderate confidence that VFR conditions will prevail through midnight before conditions degrade with the development of patches of low stratus, especially along the I-95 corridor where moisture has been enhanced by an afternoon Atlantic sea breeze, develop.
Guidance has trended a bit more toward potential for dense (LIFR)
fog along the I-95 corridor for the Jax Metro northward; however, confidence is not yet high enough to include in in the forecast due to a persistent southeast wind around 5 knots overnight. If fog and low stratus does develop, anticipate improvements to VFR by 14z at the latest. The next weather impact will be a line of convection, with potentially strong or marginally severe embedded storms, ahead of a fast- moving cold front. Indicated PROB30 groups late in the period and the time frame will require refinements in subsequent forecasts. Initially winds will be southeasterly around 5 knots overnight and veer southwesterly Sunday and become gusty with gusts around 20-25 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

South to southeast winds will become southerly tonight as a cold front begins to approach the region from the west with showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the offshore waters through tonight. Sunday, south southwesterly winds will increase to caution levels offshore as the front slides east towards coastal waters from the west with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage by the afternoon and early evening hours. The cold front will pass through the coastal waters after midnight with drier conditions by sunrise. Breezy southwest winds will shift to the northwest in the wake of the front with a Small craft advisory in place from Sunday evening into late Monday morning. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible over the offshore waters.
High pressure will build into the southeast states Monday and then build north and east into the Carolina coast by the middle of next week. Northerly winds Monday and Monday night will turn northeasterly Tuesday and increase in strength again by late Tuesday into the day Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds to the north through the end of next week.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect for northeast florida and southeast georgia beaches through this evening and again on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 202

Heavy rainfall amounts of 1.0 to 1.5 inches is expected over the Suwannee Valley of northeast florida and much of inland Southeast Georgia with lesser amounts under 1 inch generally east of highway 301. Locally heavier amounts up to 2 to 3 inches are possible over far inland areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 61 72 36 / 10 20 100 80 SSI 75 62 72 40 / 10 10 80 80 JAX 81 63 77 40 / 10 10 80 70 SGJ 78 63 77 42 / 10 10 50 80 GNV 81 63 77 40 / 10 10 80 70 OCF 82 62 78 41 / 10 10 60 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

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Brunswick
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:56 AM EST     7.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:12 PM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:07 PM EST     6.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brunswick, East River, Georgia, Tide feet

Buffalo River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     7.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:19 PM EST     1.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:45 PM EST     7.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo River entrance, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

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