Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dock Junction, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:26PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:45 PM EST (00:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:04PMMoonset 10:22AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 218 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Tonight..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet.
Thursday night and Friday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 218 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure over the local waters will shift farther east Monday as south winds develop. Wind increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will press south of the waters late Tuesday. Strong north winds Wednesday will bring small craft advisory conditions to at least the outer waters as surface high pressure builds across the gulf coast states. The high builds north of the waters Thursday and Friday with a gradual decrease in winds and seas as onshore flow develops.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 14, 2019 at 1200 utc... 42 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 41 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 50 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 74 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dock Junction, GA
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location: 31.21, -81.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 152355 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 655 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Tuesday]

VFR through this evening but like last night, there is fog potential. But unlike last night, there may equal chances of fog and stratus, since winds just above the sfc will be higher and produce a bit more turbulent mixing. Indicated fog developing at VQQ by around midnight and other TAFs by 08z-11z and continued to to show low flight conditions for JAX, VQQ, SSI, and GNV. Uncertain on fog potential for SGJ and CRG where guidance and cross-over temps not as big. Shortly after 14z, anticipate VFR rest of the day with southerly winds increasing to near 10 kt with a few higher gusts in the aftn.

PREV DISCUSSION [226 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Seasonally cool, clear skies and another round of fog as surface high pressure centered over the local area builds offshore through tonight. Low level winds will go calm inland tonight while near the coast and over the coastal waters winds will veer more SE as the ridge center builds offshore. This transition will moderate temperatures and increase low level moisture with lows expected to be about 5-10 deg warmer tonight compared to last night. After midnight, conditions are favorable for shallow ground fog to develop inland once again with the focus area first developing near the I-95 corridor and spreading inland and to the NNW across inland SE GA through sunrise where patchy dense fog was advertised.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night].

Warm southerly flow develops Monday with a rebound in temperatures above normal values rising into the mid to upper 70s inland as the surface high shifts farther offshore of the SE Atlantic coast. Aloft, upper level flow backs SW with increasing high cirrus from the west Monday afternoon into Monday night. Dry conditions will prevail until Tuesday as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Dynamical forcing across the local area will be much weaker compared to the last system as the parent surface low tracks well to the north and the strongest dynamics aloft lag the deepest moisture and low level lift near the cold front. There is a low potential for isolated t'storms Tue afternoon and Tue evening with meager low level instability 500-1000 J/kg focused across our southern FL zones south of GNV to SGJ per the GFS where 0-6 km bulk shear near 40 kts by 00z. Cold front clears SE GA Tue afternoon and settles across NE FL Tue night with lingering clouds through Tue night. Above climo temps continue into Tue ahead of the front with some locations across NE FL nearing record highs in the lower 80s. Temps cool into the 40s for most areas Tue night trailing frontal passage.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday].

WED & THU . Dry with below normal temperatures with an inland freeze expected Wed night. Post-frontal clouds will gradually decrease Wed as mid/upper level troughs press downstream of the area. At the surface, high pressure across south TX will extend a ridge axis eastward across the Gulf Coast states. This regime will bring a dry and chilly low level NNW flow which highs only in the 50s across most areas Wed with and inland freeze for SE GA and west of the Highway 301 corridor Wed night. The pressure gradient will remain elevated Wed night to continue winds near 5 mph inland to near 10 mph toward the Atlantic coast which will create wind chills in the 20s for many areas around sunrise Thu morning. The surface ridge builds north of the region Thu which will veer low level winds more ENE into Thu evening. This pattern transition will bring a gradual warming trend with highs warming into the mid/upper 50s for SE GA Thu and highs in the low/mid 60s across NE FL. Thu night low temps will also moderate into the mid/upper 30s across inland SE GA to the 40s/low 50s across NE FL, with frost not overly likely at this time across SE GA given influx of high cirrus clouds from the west through the night.

FRI THROUGH SUN . Increasing rain chances Fri-Sat with locally heavy rainfall potential and warming trend in temperatures toward near normal values. A coastal trough forms along the local coast Fri bringing a chance of coastal showers. Fri night a surface low forms along the inverted coastal trough offshore of the coast as a strong upper level trough and associated surface cold front press steadily east across the Gulf Coast states. Best chance of rainfall Fri night into Sat will focus along the local Atlantic coast where coastal convergence around the low offshore and increased forcing aloft could create localized heavy rainfall. Model discrepancies between GFS/ECMWF regarding upper level low structure and progression Sat into Sun with the 00Z ECMWF showing a weaker but progressive system while the GFS develops a strong, deepening low across the SE region and continues elevated rain chances into Sun with the upper level low passage. At this trended toward decreasing rain chances Sat night into Sun. Guidance is in good agreement at this time keeping the local area in the 'cool' section of this system so refrained from inclusion of tstorms at this time, however, if GFS solution of potent upper level low pans out, elevated instability will bring at least an isolated tstorm change. Cooler and drier NNW flow develops Sunday as storm system progresses downstream with temperatures cooling to near to below climo values.

MARINE.

High pressure over the local waters will shift farther east Monday as south winds develop. Seas and winds increase late Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front to exercise caution levels over the outer waters. The front will press south of the waters late Tuesday with isolated thunderstorm potential. Strong north winds Wednesday will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to at least the outer waters as surface high pressure builds across the Gulf Coast States. The high builds north of the waters Thursday and Friday with a gradual decrease in winds and seas as onshore flow develops with marginal advisory conditions over the outer waters.

Rip Currents: Low risk today & Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 45 76 60 75 40 / 0 0 20 70 40 SSI 54 73 61 75 45 / 0 0 10 30 40 JAX 51 78 61 79 45 / 0 0 10 30 50 SGJ 55 79 62 79 47 / 0 0 10 30 40 GNV 50 79 61 79 45 / 0 0 10 30 40 OCF 51 80 61 80 47 / 0 0 10 30 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 37 mi46 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 62°F1023.2 hPa (+0.9)
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 37 mi46 min 62°F2 ft
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 38 mi56 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 59°F 61°F2 ft1022.2 hPa (+0.8)50°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA6 mi51 minSE 410.00 miFair53°F47°F83%1022.3 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA10 mi53 minSE 610.00 miFair57°F48°F72%1022.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W5W5W4W4SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmSW5SW4CalmW3NW4N4NW5NE5S4CalmSE8SE6SE4SE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Crispen Island, Turtle River, Georgia
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Crispen Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:53 AM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:34 AM EST     9.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:30 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.46.24.32.10.3-0.40.32.14.46.68.39.19.28.16.23.91.60.10.11.12.94.76.37.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mackay River (Daymark #239), Georgia
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Mackay River (Daymark #239)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:54 AM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:59 AM EST     8.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:28 PM EST     6.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.24.93.31.50.1-0.40.42.24.66.67.98.37.96.7531.20.10.11.234.86.16.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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