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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 803 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of rain with patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 803 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..
a cold front will move southeast of the area this morning. A trough of low pressure will move southeast across region tonight causing a slight increase in wind speeds from the northwest. A dry cold front will move through early Wednesday morning resulting in stronger north to northwest winds, possibly to small craft advisory criteria Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will move into the area Thursday into Thursday night.
a strong cold front will affect the area waters late this weekend.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 02, 2023 at 1200 utc...
47 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 53 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 041335 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 835 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 823 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Leading cool frontal passage already into Central FL with deep moisture already well south of the region, while secondary drier frontal passage will push through later today, which will clear out the low level moisture and usher in a drier/cooler airmass. So while skies will remain mostly cloudy today with even a few spots of light rain, drizzle and fog across NE FL this morning, will see current temps in the 60s, bump up about 5-10 degrees this afternoon with highs getting into the lower 70s for SE GA and middle 70s for NE FL. West winds today slowly increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph with the frontal passage this afternoon. Some partial clearing expected tonight, but overall skies remain partly to mostly cloudy with layers of mid to high clouds continuing to stream aloft from the Gulf of Mexico across the region. Despite the cloud cover expect low temps to fall into the 40s across inland areas, but likely closer to 50F along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin. Winds shifting to the Northwest behind the frontal passage tonight and remaining in the 5-10 mph range, which should prevent any significant fog formation.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak sfc cold front was analyzed at 2 AM across southeast GA, FL big bend, and into the Gulf of Mexico. The front will continue sagging southeastward as mean mid level trough west of the region moves in overhead, though an upper level trough lags well behind. Some weak forcing aloft and left-over deep moisture in the low to mid levels still supports a low chance of light patchy rain this morning, particularly across northeast FL and far southeast GA. In addition, patchy to areas of fog are expected given the very moist low levels and the light southwest/west winds and the recent rainfall. Local vsby of 1/2 mile or less are possible. As the front presses southeast by midday, any light shower will exit to the east or southeast and low level humidity will drop and scour out the low clouds and any fog, but mid to mostly high clouds are expected to persist into tonight. Westerly winds increase to near 10-15 mph with a few gusts of 20 mph this afternoon, with above seasonable temps in the 70s most locations. A secondary trough will push through tonight and shift winds around to the northwest providing more cooling to the area. So for tonight, much cooler than the past few days, and expecting lows in the 40s most locations with lower 50s near the coast and far southeast zones. Winds will be northwest up 5-10 mph.
Overall, NBM temps looked reasonable with slight adjustments from MOS guidance.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High pressure conditions will dominate the weather pattern through this period with westerly flow shifting more out of the northwest on Wednesday as a dry cold front presses down from out of the north bringing colder temperatures, clearing skies, and breezy northwesterly winds. Lowest temperatures of the week will occur on Wednesday and Thursday with max daytime temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Prevailing flow will shift about to become more out of the southwest by the end of the week as high pressure moves off to the east.
Chances for showers and storms will increase over the weekend ahead of an advancing cold front from out of the west. Highest chances for convection are expected on Sunday, with the frontal boundary crossing through the region before the beginning of next week.
Temperatures will trend to be near or just above the seasonal average for the weekend.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Widespread IFR cigs over the area at this time with some areas of LIFR, which is likely to continue until about 14z or so. LIFR has not been as common as earlier guidance suggested so have adjusted timing and occurrence. Still looks like improving conditions from the northwest to southeast by late morning and early afternoon with VFR likely after 17z-18z time frame, with SGJ likely the last site to become VFR. High clouds will persist rest of the forecast period. Winds will be westerly about 5 knots, increasing to about 8-12G20kt by late morning and into aftn. Winds will relax tonight while shifting to the northwest.

MARINE
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Cold front moves through early this morning, and westerly winds around 10-15 kt will prevail today, and increases slightly tonight to near exercise levels briefly offshore as a trough of low pressure moves through. Seas mainly 2-4 ft, highest offshore.
Pressure gradient increases Tuesday night into Wed as another surge of cool air arrives from the north and northwest, causing likely small craft advy level winds for the offshore waters, with timing from late Tuesday night into late Wed night or Thu morning. High pressure will build into the area Thu-Thu night, with another cold front moving into the area late this weekend.

Rip Currents: Lower surf heights of 2 ft or less and offshore flow will maintain primarily a low risk today through Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 43 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 72 50 64 46 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 76 48 66 44 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 77 52 68 48 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 77 48 68 44 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 78 50 69 45 / 20 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Crispen Island
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Mon -- 02:18 AM EST     6.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:31 AM EST     1.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:43 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:30 PM EST     7.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:06 PM EST     1.50 feet Low Tide
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Crispen Island, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Mackay River (Daymark %23239), Georgia, Tide feet

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