Wednesday, September23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Country Club Estates, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:22PM Wednesday September 23, 2020 3:26 PM EDT (19:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:03PMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 300 Pm Edt Wed Sep 23 2020
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 15 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 13 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 300 Pm Edt Wed Sep 23 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure centered along the carolina coast will move eastward and will strengthen near bermuda on Friday. Seas will continue to slowly subside, but will remain at small craft advisory levels through Thursday. Meanwhile, the remnants of tropical storm beta will move northeastward through the lower mississippi valley tonight and will then weaken over the tennessee and southern appalachians on Thursday night and Friday. This weather pattern will result in gradually increasing southeasterly winds beginning tonight, followed by winds subsiding on Saturday night and Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over our local waters from Friday through the weekend. A series of dry cold frontal passages are then expected early next week.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 22, 2020 at 1200 utc... 56 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 65 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 80 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 90 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Country Club Estates, GA
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location: 31.23, -81.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 231756 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 156 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 06Z. Easterly surface winds will increase to 5-10 knots by 19Z. Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible at VQQ and GNV after 07Z, but confidence was too low to include in the afternoon TAFs. Southerly surface winds will develop shortly after sunrise on Thursday, with sustained speeds increasing to 5-10 knots by 14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION [1042 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Upper ridge will shift south allowing clouds to funnel into the region from the remnants of Beta to our west near the southern Mississippi valley. At the surface, high pressure and a dry airmass (PWATs less than an inch) will lead to a rain free day. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer with a weaker onshore flow, however, cloudy conditions will keep highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows tonight will range from the low 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday].

Thursday . High pressure pushes further east into the Atlc and southerly steering flow will pump up Max Temps to above normal levels in the mid/upper 80s, while drier air aloft will limit any shower activity during the afternoon hours to only isolated across inland SE GA and along the weak SE Atlc sea breeze front along the NE FL coast.

Thu Night . Moisture levels will continue to slowly increase with a more moist mid level SW flow aloft and a few showers and storms will be possible across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley as well as over the Atlc Coastal Waters, but still many locations remain dry across NE FL through the night with abundant clouds keeping the overnight lows much milder in the lower 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the Atlc Coast.

Friday and Friday Night . Deeper Tropical Moisture remnants from Beta finally push over top of the ridge and into the region and a combination of daytime heating and Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) around 2 inches or so should be enough to trigger scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded storms by the afternoon and evening hours, with leftover isolated showers Friday Night. Mild Southeast Flow will push Max Temps into the mid/upper 80s once again and while severe storms are not expected, some brief heavy downpours will be the main threat from convection.

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Tuesday].

Sat/Sun . Continued warm/humid with above normal temps for late Sept with highs in the upper 80s/near 90 degrees and muggy overnight lows in the 70s. Still enough lingering moisture with PWATs around 2 inches to continue the threat of scattered showers and isolated storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, but certainly not a weekend washout. Weak flow aloft will limit any strong convection with just brief heavy downpours the main impact from the weekend convection.

Mon/Tue . A weakening cold frontal boundary will push through the SE US and settle into the NE FL/SE GA region early next week. Not much dynamics assocd with this feature so basically just a new injection of moisture into the region which will continue the warm/humid conds with scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly during the afternoon/early evening hours. Above normal temps continue with highs in the upper 80s/near 90 and lows in the 70s. Still some uncertainty if the frontal boundary gets enough push to allow for some drier airmass to reach inland SE GA by the Tuesday time frame, so still only low to moderate confidence in forecast for this time period.

MARINE.

High pressure centered along the Carolina coast will move eastward and will strengthen near Bermuda on Friday. Seas will continue to slowly subside, but will remain at Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL and for the offshore GA waters through tonight. Seas will remain at Small Craft Advisory levels for the offshore FL waters through at least Thursday evening. Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta will move northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and will then weaken over the Tennessee and southern Appalachians on Thursday night and Friday. This weather pattern will result in gradually increasing southeasterly winds beginning tonight, followed by winds subsiding on Saturday night and Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over our local waters from Friday through the weekend. A series of dry cold frontal passages are then expected early next week.

Rip Currents: Long period ocean swells and elevated seas will keep a high risk in place at all area beaches through Thursday.

HYDROLOGY.

A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through this afternoon along the upper St. Johns River basin to the south of downtown Jacksonville, where water remains trapped after four full days of strong onshore winds. Astronomically high tides will keep water levels generally in the 1.5 - 2.5 foot range above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide at these locations through Thursday night before slowly falling back to near 1 foot above MHHW on Friday. Elevated tides will continue elsewhere along the northeast FL coast and the lower St. Johns River in Duval County, with levels generally reaching minor flood status during times of high tide, generally in the 1 - 2 foot range above MHHW today. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for these locations today. Tide levels at the Atlantic coast in northeast FL should then subside to around 1 foot above MHHW during the afternoon high tides from Thursday through the weekend, while water will likely remain trapped for a few more days within the lower St. Johns basin around Jacksonville, where levels will likely reach around 1.5 feet above MHHW at each high tide through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 61 85 70 86 70 / 0 10 20 60 20 SSI 71 83 75 86 75 / 10 10 20 40 40 JAX 64 86 72 89 73 / 0 10 20 50 20 SGJ 73 85 74 89 74 / 10 10 20 50 30 GNV 64 88 72 89 72 / 0 10 20 60 20 OCF 65 88 72 89 73 / 0 10 20 60 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns- Inland Duval.

Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for Clay- Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

GA . High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 14 mi87 min E 4.1 77°F 1018 hPa (-2.0)60°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 31 mi37 min N 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 80°F3 ft1017.3 hPa (-1.8)59°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 36 mi57 min 75°F 78°F4 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 39 mi57 min ENE 2.9 G 8 83°F 75°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA4 mi32 minENE 65.00 miFair with Haze78°F59°F54%1017.6 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA6 mi34 minE 710.00 miFair76°F60°F58%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E12E8E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4E5E4NW5E5E6
1 day agoNE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Frederica River, Georgia
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Frederica River
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT     7.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:24 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:51 PM EDT     8.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.777.67.36.24.72.91.40.50.61.73.55.378.18.47.96.75.13.31.811.12.2

Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     7.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:06 PM EDT     8.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.877.67.46.24.32.20.70.41.12.445.6788.486.64.62.61.211.62.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.