Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Hattiesburg, MS

FXUS64 KJAN 230540 AAB AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1240 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Tonight and Wednesday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary draped across northern Mississippi; just north of our CWA Our whole CWA was back in the warm sector with surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s and a PWAT around an inch and a half.
Daytime heating has lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly across the southeast two-thirds of the CWA Although the probabilities remain low, isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail to the size of quarters remain possible across this area until mid evening or so. These storms will show a distinct diurnal trend and gradually dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Our near zonal flow aloft will continue through Tuesday. A surface ridge will continue to nose across our CWA from the east resulting in a south to southwest flow to help maintain our moist airmass. A few models suggest a subtle shortwave within the flow aloft will combine with daytime heating of our moist airmass for scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development again. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period. /22/

Wednesday Night through Saturday...

Not much has changed in the forecast for the long term period. Hi- res guidance continues to show a 1004mb sfc low shifting northeast across southern Canada. Meanwhile, the associated weak cold front will stall over northern MS Wednesday night. This will allow for afternoon thunderstorm activity and nighttime showers to persist through the late week. A few isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out for much of central/south Mississippi. Any strong storms that do manage to develop will be short-lived. In addition to the showers mentioned above, HRRR guidance is beginning to hint at low probabilities for (around 20-30%) for pockets of dense fog across much of our forecast area. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday. Global guidance continues to show a cessation of showers and t-storms through southeast portions of our CWA as the cold front looks to erode looking ahead into Friday morning. A few upper level disturbances could move over the region heading into the weekend which could assist in the reorientation of the surface front and limited upper level dynamics. This will allow for additional scattered showers and t-storms mainly for areas along and north of I- 20.

Sunday through Next Week Tuesday...

Heading into Sunday, a 1029mb sfc high hovering over the Northern Plains will begin to push east towards the Great Lakes. This will allow for the sfc front to push south towards the Gulf giving us quiet conditions across our CWA to end the weekend. Quiet weather conditions will continue heading into the new work week. Future guidance is beginning to show a shortwave trough axis over east Texas pushing eastward across the southeast CONUS by the mid-week which could help reintroduce rain chances across our CWA with slightly higher PoPs (around 25-30%) across the Delta including portions of southeast AR and portions of northeast LA. /CR/
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