Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Hattiesburg, MS

FXUS64 KJAN 281825 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 125 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Through Wednesday: Upper ridging is shifting across the area, resulting in greater suppression and lesser rain chances. As a result, it is quite warm with temps already rising into the upper 80s at many sites. With low level southerly flow, it is also still generally humid. We could see a rogue shower or two this afternoon given diurnal heating in the moist airmass, but they should be few and far between and not enough for us to include in the forecast. A similar regime will persist through the daytime Wednesday.

For Tue morning, probabilistic high res guidance shows respectably high chances for dense fog across parts of south MS and central LA from the early morning hours to shortly after sunrise. For now, we are highlighting a limited threat for dense fog in the HWO graphics and will monitor through tonight for any adjustments or need for an advisory.

Wednesday night through next Monday: Upper troughing will begin to expand into the central CONUS later this week then shift gradually eastward through this weekend. The trough will extend far enough southward to push a cold front into our region late this week.
Guidance continues to be slow with this frontal passage until it gets a more concerted upper level push in the Friday/Saturday time frame with the front moving through by the Friday night time frame.
Nevertheless, the front may be close enough by late Wednesday night for scattered convection reaching our northwestern areas. With the front pushing into the Mid South and ArkLaTex, greater coverage is expected across our area for Thursday, lingering into at least Friday as the front gradually moves through. With guidance showing potential for moderate to strong instability and steep mid level lapse rates with marginal to sufficient deep layer shear, we continue to monitor potential for severe storms during this time frame. While our area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, an outlook may be added in the coming days for Thursday and/or Friday.

There is still some question as to whether the front might stall across south MS and central LA over the weekend, which would maintain scattered rain chances over mainly the southern portion of the area Saturday and Sunday. However, with much drier air anticipated from the north/northeast, rain chances will subside over at least the northern half of the area by the weekend and areawide by next Monday. /DL/
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