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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 355 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late this evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers until early morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 355 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a return to a moderate onshore flow will continue to increase thru tonight and into the day on Friday. Gales are expected for gulf waters west of the ms delta. Moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend as a series of low pressure systems pass north of the waters. Headlines are already in place.

FXUS64 KJAN 302341 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 541 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Tonight through Friday Night...A shortwave will continue to shift east northeast across the southern plains, through the Ozarks, and into the Great Lakes region through Friday night. As this happens, a surface low will continue to develop and lift northeast from Oklahoma, through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, and into the Great Lakes Region tonight through Friday night. This surface low, will eventually drag a slow moving cold front into the forecast area overnight Friday and into early Saturday morning.

As both of these features eject northeast during this time, a couple of disturbances will lift northeast through the region ahead of and along this front. This will bring an abundance of cloud cover, along with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to the forecast area. The first wave of activity has been slowly been taking shape this afternoon, and will continue to result in mainly light showers lifting northeast through central and western portions of the CWA. As the system moves closer to the region tonight into early Friday morning, increasing flow and moisture across the region will result in more moderate rainfall becoming more widespread across the entire area. A few thunderstorms will also be possible during this time. While any storm is expected to remain below severe limits, an isolated strong thunderstorm capable of producing gusty winds can't be ruled out across mainly Southeast Mississippi early Friday morning.

In addition, a tightening pressure gradient over the area tonight will result in a "Limited' risk of strong southeast winds through early Friday morning. Sustained winds around 20 mph will exist across a good portions of the area, with gusts between 30-40 mph are possible at times. These winds will ease up a good bit through late Friday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Convection will exit the forecast area through late Friday morning.
This will result in a lull in shower activity through much of the afternoon hours Friday. The slow moving cold front will remain just to the west of the CWA during this time. This will allow for continued moistening of the airmass across the region, resulting in warmer conditions compared to the recent few day, as highs climb into the low and middle 70s.

Chances for showers and storms will once again increase across the CWA late in the afternoon and into Friday night. As the cold front moves into the forecast area, another disturbance will lift northeast along it. A "Marginal" risk for isolated severe storms will exist across far Southeast Mississippi during this time, primarily between midnight and 5 AM Saturday. This is where the better combination of wind shear, instability, and forcing will exist. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with the most intense storms, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. /19/

Saturday through Sunday...Widespread rainfall, with an isolated thunderstorm, is expected on Saturday as a cold front slowly advances eastward. Greatest rain chances (PoPs ranging from 60-85%)
will be located along Natchez Trace, east of I-55, and across the Pine Belt throughout the day. On Sunday, rain chances (PoPs up to 30%) will be possible before diminishing during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Weekend rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.25-0.75 inches, which will help a little in reducing the ongoing drought conditions. Post frontal passage will bring seasonal high and low temperatures through the weekend.

Monday through Wednesday night...The trough will proceed away from the CWA and surface ridging from the Southern Plains will build in over the area. This will result in northwest flow, keeping dry air and near average temperatures in place through mid-week. /SW/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Rather poor aviation weather conditions are expected through most of the forecast period with IFR ceilings due to widespread low stratus, and ocnl reduced vsby due to SHRA, developing overnight and persisting through the morning hours. Some improvement in the ceilings may take place later Friday. Gusty southeast surface wind will also be impactful. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 53 76 61 71 / 80 40 90 70 Meridian 48 76 61 72 / 80 60 90 90 Vicksburg 54 74 58 70 / 90 30 80 50 Hattiesburg 53 79 64 75 / 70 80 90 90 Natchez 56 75 61 72 / 90 40 90 50 Greenville 52 72 52 66 / 90 10 70 30 Greenwood 51 72 56 69 / 90 30 70 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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