Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 3:14 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 300 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

GMZ500 300 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a cold front is currently moving southward through our waters. Thunderstorms along this boundary will bring the threat of locally strong winds, large hail, and higher seas. Southwesterly winds south of the front will subside and shift out of the northwest in wake of the cold frontal passage. High pressure builds in Sunday and remains over the waters through much of next week.

FXUS64 KJAN 182348 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 648 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The rest of today through tomorrow: Radar imagery shows mostly showers and some storms developing in the Golden Triangle Region this afternoon. A boundary associated with a low pressure moving eastwards across the MS/AL line is enabling storm development and will continue through the late afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis shows an estimated 2000 - 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and low level lapse rates between 6.5 -7 C/km, which has allowed for some strong shallow updrafts to develop so far this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates continue to be lackluster, which will make it difficult for any deep cores to develop through the remainder of the evening.
Despite this, a Marginal Risk (1/5) will continue through the late evening with the main risks being isolated severe storms with hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. By tonight, rain chances are expected to diminish and maintain a dry overnight period. in the southeast, lingering moisture is expected to generate some patchy fog across the Pine Belt, but diminish by daybreak.

On Sunday, drier conditions look to prevail as an upper trough ejects out of the Southeast region onto the eastern coast. Deep ridging will begin to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley, allowing for temperatures to increase and cloud cover to dissipate.
Sunday highs look to be in the upper 80s to near 90, with mostly sunny skies across the region. /AJ/

Next week...

Early-midweek (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level ridge amplifies over the Bay of Campeche & Mexico, the low-level ridge axis is progged to build across the area through mid-week. Sfc high pressure is progged to build across the region, with an active upper level jet ejecting across the Central Plains. This will drive a strong low pressure system out of the Plains into the Mid West to Great Lakes.
A dry pattern is progged to persist through early week, with increased warm advection/low-level temps into the upper teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to moderate to seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the upper 60s southeast of the Natchez Trace to low 70s to the northwest. Heat & humidity will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices climbing into mid-upper 90s, but heat stress shouldn't be much of an issue. Low- level return flow won't pick back up until by midday Tuesday through midweek, with rain & storm chances picking back up around late Wednesday aftn to evening, mainly northwest of the Natchez Trace.

Late week (Thursday-Friday): As the trough swings into the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay, expect the ridge axis to relax & gradual height falls to occur across the Gulf Coast region. This keep continued heat & humidity but increased scattered rain & storm chances to build into the region from the north. During this time, there could be enough westerly zonal flow for some organized convective & strong- severe potential into late week. There are some indications in long term convective outlooks & CSU machine learning probs for some isolated strong-severe potential, but this remains too far in the extended timeframe to introduce in HWO graphics for now. Seasonably warm conditions in low 90s on Wednesday will tamper down into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees south of I-20 by late week. Heat & humidity will be slightly less oppressive but still heat indices in the low-mid 90s, with less potential for heat stress. /DC/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Isold SHRA may come in vcty of MEI by 02Z and reduce flying conditions. Elsewhere VFR conditions wl prevail until 10Z. After 10Z a brief period of MVFR/IFR vsby wl be psbl at MEI-PIB-HBG until 13Z. After 13Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 65 87 66 89 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 64 88 64 90 / 20 10 0 0 Vicksburg 67 89 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 67 89 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 Natchez 66 89 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 67 89 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 89 68 91 / 10 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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