Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 2:40 PM   Moonset 2:49 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1022 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning - .
Overnight - Southwest winds 10 to 15, becoming northwest late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely. Saturday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1022 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a stationary front will remain over the region overnight before eventually moving southeastward as a cold front on Saturday. Thundertorms along this boundary will bring the threat of locally strong winds, large hail, and higher seas to the waters. Breezy southwesterly winds south of the front will subside and shift out of the northwest in wake of the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in Sunday and remains over the waters through much of next week.

FXUS64 KJAN 180250 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 950 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Mid evening surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary just south of our southeast most zones. Regional radars only had a few light returns across our southern zones. This convection was occuring downstream of an approaching shortwave trough as seen on mid evening satellite imagery. Regional radars showed some more vigorous convection along the stalled boundary and just off the Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts. As the shortwave continues to approach our western zones by morning, additional convection is expected to develop and move along the boundary. Some models move the boundary to the north by morning allowing some of the convection to track across our southeast. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size will be possible. If the storms due in fact track across our southeast, they will also produce locally heavy rainfall over already saturated soils leading to excessive runoff. Thus, the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for our southeast. /22/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Through Saturday: Overall fcst is running generally on track.
Water vapor/RAP analysis this aftn indicated stalled upper low parked over the central Plains, with widespread moist ascent over the warm frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Earlier heavy rain has let up, with continued potential for some late aftn redevelopment in the Pine Belt. With trends shifting southward in convective allowing models, the flooding threat/Flood Watch were adjusted southeastward through the evening hours & trimmed back through Saturday morning. Nearly 99th percentile PWs & 925-850mb 340-350K Theta E will persist across southeastern portions of the area. Increased destabilization is ongoing as anticipated in a tight gradient in the Pine Belt, with best potential for any aftn redevelopment in the Hwy 98 corridor & to I-59 corridors. The ongoing severe potential could be at earliest in the next few hours but most likely into late evening to overnight in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors in the Pine Belt in southeast MS. Adjustments have been made to Severe threat in HWO graphics, with main focus being for damaging wind, hail quarter to golf ball size & tornadoes possible, especially in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors.
Some low tornado threat in sfc mesoanalysis exists if any aftn redevelopment occurs, with large hail up to golf ball size most likely in the moderately unstable air & 50-60kts mean bulk shear.
Damaging winds & some hail threat will persist into the overnight hours. Flash flooding threat will likely peaking back up in the Pine Belt late tonight but made adjustment to current Flood Watch to account for a smaller areal configuration & trimmed it down in time. HWO graphics were adjusted accordingly. As the upper low swings into the area on Saturday, some persistent westerly bulk shear around 30-35kts & mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 deg.
C/mid 20s vertical totals & freezing levels around 12.5-13kft that could support some isolated severe threat with damaging winds & quarter size hail. Timing looks to be the mid- morning through early evening hours. After the rain & storms move into the Pine Belt in the morning, there could be the a brief lull in the Natchez Trace corridor before more scattered to numerous showers & storms move across the eastern-central portions of MS. In terms of sensible weather, expect gradual moderation into the low-mid 80s & some increase in heat/humidity.

Late weekend through early next week (Sunday-next Thursday)...

Late weekend (Sunday): Upper low will swing into the Appalachians, with ridging at the sfc & aloft building in from west-east. This will drive in drier air into Sunday. Expect moderation of highs in the mid- upper 80s Sunday, with increasing potential heat & humidity.

Next week (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level & sfc ridge builds in, increased warm advection will bring up low-level temps into the upper teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to moderate to seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the mid-upper 60s while to low-mid 70s northwest of the Natchez Trace. Heat & humidity will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices climbing into mid-upper 90s. Low-level return flow won't pick back up until by late Monday evening through midweek, with rain & storm chances picking back up around mid-late week, northwest of the Natchez Trace on Wednesday & north of I-20 on Thursday. There could be some organization to the next trough/frontal system for some organized convection late week, but there is plenty of time to iron out as we get closer. /DC/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

MVFR/IFR cigs along with ocnl -SHRA wl continue tonight in the southeast as a stalled boundary lingers across the area. Elsewhere a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs wl lower to MVFR and then prevail until after 16Z. After 16Z VFR conditions wl prevail but there will be a chance of TSRA during the aftn in the east. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 67 83 65 87 / 10 50 10 10 Meridian 67 84 64 88 / 30 70 20 10 Vicksburg 67 85 67 88 / 20 40 10 0 Hattiesburg 68 84 66 89 / 50 60 10 10 Natchez 66 84 66 88 / 20 30 10 0 Greenville 68 84 67 88 / 30 50 0 0 Greenwood 67 83 65 88 / 30 60 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ057-058-064>066- 072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

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Waveland
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Fri -- 02:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:25 AM CDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:12 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:26 PM CDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:46 PM CDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet

Bay Waveland Yacht Club
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Fri -- 02:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:36 AM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:07 PM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:09 PM CDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:16 PM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

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