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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 229 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest and increasing to around 15 knots this afternoon. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters becoming a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms developing during the mid to late afternoon hours. Strong to severe Thunderstorms containing damaging winds and waterspouts will be possible late this afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Occasional gusts to gale force after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters becoming choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas building to 6 to 8 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet, building to 7 to 10 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 229 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
a strong cold front will approach our region this afternoon, crossing our local waters during the evening hours tonight. Southerly winds will strengthen to small craft advisory levels over the offshore waters during the late morning hours. A squall line of strong to severe Thunderstorms will precede this front late this afternoon, with stronger storms being capable of producing damaging wind gusts and waterspouts through early this evening. Outside of Thunderstorm activity, westerly winds will increase to small craft advisory levels towards Sunset for the near shore waters, with winds then shifting to northwesterly and occasionally gusting to gale force after midnight both near shore and offshore. High pressure will then build over the southeastern states in the wake of this cold frontal passage on Monday morning, allowing for gradually diminishing northerly winds and subsiding seas. This high pressure center will migrate northeastward and will strengthen over the coastal carolinas on Tuesday, resulting in an extended period of strong northeasterly winds and steadily building seas that will persist into next weekend. Coastal troughing developing over our near shore waters will likely develop showers by mid to late week that may persist into next weekend.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 1200 utc...
50 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 53 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 78 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KCHS 100606 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 106 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday evening, followed by high pressure through late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
At 1 AM: Latest nighttime microphysics indicated an expanding area of low stratus over the inland counties, slowly drifting inland. It is expected that additional patches of low clouds will develop over the nearshore waters, pushing onshore through the rest of the night. The forecast will continue to indicate patchy fog and low clouds through tonight. Temperatures will remain nearly steady until sunrise Sunday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: The forecast philosophy has not changed significantly from the previous forecast cycle. A sharp upper trough will dig across the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday then become negatively tilted as it pivots across the Southeast U.S. Sunday evening, helping to drive a strong cold front through the local area and into the coastal waters Sunday night. A corridor of intense upper forcing ahead of the upper trough comprised of strong DCVA, modest warm air advection and a well-defined window of 250 hPa difluence will support several large areas of widespread showers with isolated to scattered embedded tstms.
This activity is currently timed to reach far interior areas of Southeast Georgia by late morning, then spread across the remainder of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia through the afternoon before most of the activity exits off the coast during the mid-late evening hours. While the surface front should clear the coast roughly in the 11/01-04z timeframe, the anafrontal nature of the frontal surface suggests some degree of shower activity will likely linger for several hours after FROPA. However, expect a quick end to the rain and the onset of rapid clearing during the early morning Monday as high pressure and an expansive region of mid-level dry air begin to build into the area from the west. Categorical pops near 100% look on target for all areas into Sunday evening with rain chances ending from west-east as the night progresses. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 70s with temperatures with lows Monday morning dropping into the lower-mid 30s over far interior Southeast Georgia to the lower-mid 40s at the beaches.

The combination of widespread rain and extensive cloud cover will tend to limit net instability across the area ahead of the cold front. However, the lack of instability will likely be overcome by the intense, deep-layered forcing noted on model cross sections. This coupled with 0-6km bulk shear of 45-50 kt and some MLCAPE as high as 500 J/kg could support an isolated damaging wind event or two, or even an isolated, brief tornado in a classic high shear/low CAPE environment. There are some indications that pockets of higher instability could occur across parts of the Charleston Tri-County where widespread rains will arrive the latest. If this is realized, a slight uptick in the severe weather potential could occur, but it does appear that any meaningful higher risk for severe tstm development will likely occur up to the north into northeast South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

Breezy to windy conditions will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening the the period of highest winds likely occurring just prior to and after FROPA. Gusts 25-35 mph will be common late afternoon into mid-evening with a potential for gusts as high as 40 mph, especially along the lower South Carolina coast when the low-level jet is at its most intense prior to FROPA.
Wind gusts could be higher over the elevated bridges across the Charleston and Savannah Metro Areas as well as the exposed bridges heading out to the various barrier islands. These winds could pose a hazard to high- profile vehicles. A Lake Wind Advisory will be needed for Lake Moultrie, although winds speeds may be subdued somewhat in the warm sector by the poor mixing profiles due to chilly water temperatures in the upper 50s. The better potential for higher lake winds will hold off until cold air advection kicks in after FROPA. A short-fuse Wind Advisory may be needed as wind trends become more apparent, especially for the lower South Carolina coastal counties.

Monday and Tuesday: Quiet and cooler weather will prevail as high pressure dominates. Highs Monday will only warm into the lower-mid 50s then warm into the mid-upper 50s for Tuesday. Lows Tuesday morning will drop to around 30 for areas adjacent to the CSRA and Southern Midlands to the mid 40s at the beaches.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly quiet conditions will prevail through much of next week with high pressure centered to the north. A subtle coastal trough could develop off the coast by mid-week, but any associated shower activity should remain offshore. Rain chances could start to increase by Friday as a storm system begins to organize over the Gulf of Mexico. Details of this system and how it could impact Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia are highly uncertain this far out.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Prior to the 6Z TAFs: IR satellite indicated a large area of stratus inland of the terminals will advance NW early this morning. A few ragged patches may develop over the coastal waters, drifting over the terminals between 8-12Z, highlighted with TEMPOs. As a cold front approaches from the west, the pressure gradient will gradually increase across SE GA/SC. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that gusts around 20 kts will develop be mid-morning, increasing to the mid 20s by early this afternoon. Based on high resolution guidance, a band of moderate showers with embedded thunderstorms are timed to push across KSAV between 21-01Z and KCHS/KJZI 22-02Z, highlighted with TEMPOs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Widespread rain with vsby and cig restrictions will occur through Sunday evening with conditions improving early Monday. Gusty winds and possible low-level shear are possible at all three terminals. Tstm probabilities are still fairly low, although rumbles can not be ruled out. VFR will prevail Monday through much of next week.

MARINE
Tonight: Tonight, wind are expected to increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts across portions of AMZ350 and 374 late tonight/early Sunday morning. As dew points surge into the 60s tonight and PWATs increase to around 1.4 inches scattered to numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected over the marine waters.

Sunday through Thursday: Southerly winds will begin to ramp up Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds in the warm air advection regime atop the chilly shelf waters will tend to temper speeds a bit, but frequent gusts to 25 kt appear likely over the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore and Georgia offshore legs by afternoon. Similar conditions are expected in Charleston Harbor where land heating influences will be greater.
A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for these areas.
Widespread will move across the marine area Sunday afternoon/evening, ending from west- east early Monday. A few heavier tstms could produce convective wind gusts in excess of 35 kt or even an isolated waterspout. A few Special Marine Warnings may be need. Offshore winds will increase quickly after the passage of the cold front with the risk for gales increasing in the post-frontal cold air advection regime.
Frequent gusts to 35 kt appears likely for all legs out of the Charleston Harbor from roughly Sunday evening through early Monday. Gale Watches have been posted for all legs to account for this, excluding Charleston Harbor (although it may be close). Gale Warnings will likely be issued with the early Sunday morning update. Seas will peak 4-7 ft nearshore waters with 5-9 ft over the Georgia offshore leg and the outer portion of the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore waters. The next chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions could come as early as Wednesday as both winds and seas build in response to a tightening pressure gradient with the development of a coastal trough offshore.

EQUIPMENT
KCLX remains operational, but level 2 data is not being distributed to external users due to an internal hardware failure. We are still awaiting the arrival of new parts to resolve this problem. Until then, level 2 data will not be available. Radar data is available for all connected AWIPS users. Level 3 data is also available for some external users.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ350-374.
Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for AMZ350- 352-354.
Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for AMZ374.

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Jones Creek entrance
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Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     7.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:24 PM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:00 PM EST     6.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia, Tide feet

Old Tower
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Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:57 AM EST     7.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:24 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:09 PM EST     6.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia, Tide feet

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