NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Early this evening: Radar imagery shows inbound thunderstorm activity from the north has steadily weakened as it has moved into areas that were previously impacted in the afternoon. As of now, convection is completely boundary driven and there are plenty of mesoscale boundaries visible on radar. The generally trend is that ongoing activity will continue to gradually shift to the south and eventually offshore by the early morning hours.
By late tonight we should be mostly rain-free with any lingering convection favoring the coastal waters.

As we head into the evening, the severe threat should be over with the loss of heating. However, there will still be a heavy rainfall threat thanks to precipitable water values pushing 2.4 inches. However, most of the convection has been progressive to the point where significant flooding has not occurred.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Saturday: The region will be positioned under the broad cyclonic flow aloft between upper ridging centered over the Florida Panhandle and the sharpening trough propagating off the U.S. East Coast. A weak cold front will continue to slide south into Southeast Georgia during the morning hours, becoming situated south of the Altamaha River by late afternoon-early evening. Drier air characterized by lower 850 theta-e values will attempt to advect south during the afternoon hours, but surface dewpoints looks to remain elevated (70s) with PWATs holding around 2 inches. The deepest moisture, low- level convergence and better instability look to occur over Southeast Georgia, closer the front itself. CAMs have trended slightly drier over the past 24-hours and the forecast will feature lower pops again this cycle given this trend. Pops will range from 20% well inland to 30% over south coastal South Carolina with 30-50% over Southeast Georgia, highest across the middle/lower Georgia coastal counties. Further downward adjustments may be needed. A risk for locally heavy rain will exist, but storms look to remain progressive enough to limit any flooding to low- lying and poor drainage areas. Convection will quickly wane by early evening with dry conditions expected overnight. Highs will peak upper 80s/lower 90s away from the beaches with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s/lower 70s well inland to the upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches.

Sunday: Drier air from the north will further infiltrate the area with the front displaced well to the south and the upper ridge aloft builds. Dewpoints are expected to mix out into the mid-upper 60s as high pressure noses in from the northeast with a few lower 70s noted along the Altamaha River. This coupled with considerably lower mean moisture values and lower 850 hPa theta-e should support a considerably lower risk for showers/tstms--the lowest in some time. Pops will range from 10% across most of Southeast South Carolina with 20-40% over Southeast Georgia, highest near the Altamaha River. These too many prove too high if trends continue. Highs will warm into the lower 90s away from the beaches with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s/near 70 well inland to the upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches.

Monday: Moisture values will begin to creep up as high pressure slides farther offshore and the low-level flow becomes more onshore with time. The best chance for afternoon/evening showers/tstms will be confined across the interior given the sea breeze should be fairly progressive during the afternoon hours.
Pops were limited to 20-40% away from the immediate coast with the highest pops clustered over far interior Southeast Georgia where net instability and low- level moisture will be the greatest. Highs will warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The pattern will trend into a more typical diurnally driven convective pattern for much of next week. Models show a broad mid-level weakness developing by mid-week which could help enhance convection a bit with convection concentrating inland each afternoon/evening ahead of the sea breeze. Chance pops look reasonable through period, close to climatological normals for deep summer. Temperatures will generally run near seasonable normals, but there are signals the heat and humidity will begin to build Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At 00z, thunderstorms that were headed into the KCHS and KJZI area have been steadily diminishing such that direct impacts are not expected. KSAV will be more tricky as outflow boundaries are poised to move into the area over the next few hours and could provide the focus for thunderstorm development. For now we have only gone with VCTS from 01-03z and will amend as necessary.

Model guidance continues to hint at a period of MVFR ceilings starting in the early morning hours as a front pushes in from the northeast. Any period of MVFR or lower ceilings could last through mid morning. Winds will be more northeasterly on Saturday and the potential for thunderstorms will be significantly less than the last few days.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A typical late summer shower/tstm regime will dominate for much of the period with afternoon/evening showers/tstms potentially posing a risk to KCHS, KJZI and KSAV.

MARINE
The surface pattern should support southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts across the marine zone this afternoon. Seas are forecast to range between 2-3 ft.

A weak cold front is forecast to push over the coast waters before dawn Saturday. Ahead of the cold front, winds will remain from the southwest between 5 to 10 kts. In the wake of the front, winds will turn from the west around 10 kts. Seas should remain between 2 to 3 ft.

Saturday: A cold front will slip south through the waters Saturday resulting in winds turning north to northeast during the day. Speeds in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg could see speeds as high as 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt by Saturday night. Otherwise, speeds will hold less than 15 kt across all remaining waters.

Sunday through Wednesday: Winds will turn easterly for Sunday as high pressure to the north slides offshore. More southerly winds return by mid-week as the waters become situated along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure. Speeds look to remain less than 15 kt through the period with seas less than 4 ft, although a few 5 footer could brush the Georgia offshore waters near 60 NM at times Sunday into Sunday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.